OpenAI Report Controversy, Semiconductor Stock Plummet

Semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia (-2.94%), AMD (-3.9%), and Broadcom (-4.3%), all plummeted after the Financial Times reported on OpenAI's revenue.

The stock prices of major semiconductor companies such as Nvidia (-2.94%), AMD (-3.9%), Broadcom (-4.3%), SanDisk (-4.9%), Micron (-4.79%), and Intel (-5.3%) plummeted, while tech ETFs XLK and SMH also fell by 1.9% and 1.78% respectively.

It was pointed out that OpenAI is a private company, and the volatility of its revenue figures should be taken into account.

Experts like DA Davidson suggested that the Financial Times' revenue figures may have distorted the actual market situation.

OpenAI and Anthropic have different revenue calculation methods, and hyper-scale investment was excluded from this report, making direct comparison difficult.

Capital markets recognize AI as the next industrial revolution, comparable to the internet and smartphones, and value OpenAI, which recorded a corporate value of $1.4 trillion, at the level of big tech.

OpenAI's corporate value reaches approximately $1.4 trillion, putting it on par with global big tech companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia.

Capital markets perceive AI as the next industrial revolution, akin to the introduction of the internet or smartphones, and continue to make large-scale investments.

News that OpenAI is discussing large-scale fundraising of over $30 billion demonstrates the extremely capital-intensive nature of the AI industry.

Operating Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) requires massive amounts of computing power and Nvidia GPUs, necessitating continuous large-scale investment.

Large-scale fundraising for infrastructure investments, such as data centers, is essential, largely to secure capital for maintaining technological superiority.

If OpenAI falters, it could negatively impact the entire AI market, so its movements need to be continuously monitored.

Major stocks like ASML and Lam Research narrowed their intraday declines to close trading, and whether a rebound will continue in tomorrow's session remains key.

Other semiconductor equipment companies like ASML and Lam Research also narrowed their declines, and whether a rebound will continue or further decline in tomorrow's session has emerged as a key market concern.

Experts point out that the current market situation is a short-term adjustment and excessive worry should be avoided.

The Financial Times reported allegations that OpenAI's revenue figures were $20 billion lower than previously expected, causing a significant ripple effect in the market.

The market uses Annualized Run Rate (ARR) as a key indicator, and confusion between $50 billion and $68 billion fueled investor anxiety.

Given that major companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia are OpenAI investors, this report had a significant impact across the market, and the lack of disclosure obligations for private companies increased market volatility due to information asymmetry.

Since OpenAI is not a listed company, it is not officially obligated to disclose its revenue, so the reported revenue figures need to be approached with caution.

The reported figures are based on market expectations and may differ from actual revenue shortfalls, and the unique growth model and expenditure structure of AI companies are strongly influencing the market.

Quant investors tend to react immediately to headlines, which can cause an overreaction in the market.

High-valuation stocks such as Iron AI (-8.5%), CoreWeave (-8%), and Arm Holdings (-7%) had already shown weakness amidst a Nasdaq decline even before the related news broke.

Iron AI fell 8.5%, CoreWeave 8%, and Neus 7%, while Arm Holdings and Super Micro also dropped 7% and 6% respectively.

This indicates that high-valuation stocks are particularly hard hit within the overall Nasdaq downturn.

David Zervos, formerly of Jefferies, is drawing market attention as he joins the Federal Reserve.

He assessed that although Treasury yields are at historical highs, there is room for them to fall ahead of interest rate cuts.

The global phenomenon of rising interest rates is common not only in the United States but also in major developed countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and Japan.

This is primarily driven by central bank policy recalibration and the enormous capital demand for AI technology, rather than inflation.

High demand for AI investment is interpreted as a positive sign, indicating that U.S. companies are actively betting on future growth.

The global rise in interest rates stems from central banks' proactive measures to counter persistent inflation.

Unlike 2008, central banks are not overlooking the current inflation situation, and the same interest rate increases are occurring in major developed countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and Japan.

Within this global environment, the U.S. market continues to outperform other countries.

This is supported by the fact that there are no significant changes in both breakeven point (BEP) fluctuations and short-term survey data.

It is judged that long-term inflation and interest rate forecasts have not changed significantly, and if oil prices fall, discussions about future interest rate cuts may re-emerge.

The enormous capital demand for AI-related technologies is putting upward pressure on global real interest rates. This is interpreted as a positive sign that companies are actively betting on future growth.

Although there is short-term pressure due to energy price volatility, capital demand for AI technology investment is expected to continue.

Companies using their balance sheets to invest in future technologies signify the health and growth potential of the U.S. economy.