Lee Jae-myung's Approval Rating Falls to 34.6%, Below 35%

According to a PenNMike opinion poll, Lee Jae-myung's approval rating recorded 34.6%, falling below the 35% mark. Although there was already an opinion poll result below 35% last week, an even lower figure was reported this time. This indicates that Lee Jae-myung's approval rating for state administration is definitively entering the lame-duck stage.

Among the negative evaluation items for Lee Jae-myung's state administration, the response 'doing very poorly' recorded 53.2%, exceeding the majority. This suggests that more than half of the Korean public feel a serious sense of crisis regarding Lee Jae-myung's state administration.

Lee Jae-myung's positive evaluation in the Seoul area was 27.9%, falling below the 30% mark. The main factors contributing to this decline in approval rating appear to be a combination of dissatisfaction with real estate policies and disappointment with recent cabinet appointments. In particular, critical views on a cabinet reshuffle that merely changes faces without policy changes were strongly reflected in the results.

Lee Jae-myung's approval ratings among those in their 20s and 30s recorded a dismal 24.9% and 22.2%, respectively. This means that the 2030 generation has reached a point where they no longer trust the Lee Jae-myung administration, regardless of the policies it introduces.

76.4% of Jo Guk Innovation Party supporters negatively evaluate Lee Jae-myung. This is analyzed as the pro-Moon Jae-in faction seeking to break with Lee Jae-myung, indicating that they cannot continue with Lee Jae-myung despite attempts such as appointing Kim Hye-min as the Cheong Wa Dae AI Senior Secretary.

Criticism has emerged that Lee Jae-myung's overseas schedule, which involves inviting celebrities for photoshoots, is inappropriate given that his approval rating for state affairs remains in the 30s. Moreover, the staging that emphasized his bond with his wife is also suspected of having a political motive.

Suspicions have been raised that this overseas trip is a 'diplomacy of escape' or 'trip of escape' to avoid a domestic political crisis related to the cabinet reshuffle and personnel hearings, especially regarding a 'major incident'. Accepting the co-chairmanship of the Lumiere Summit, which has little connection to national interests, is cited as evidence supporting these suspicions.

The approval rate for the appointment of ministerial candidate Yong Hye-in was only 16.6%, indicating a very low public evaluation. This is a public report card of less than 20 points, with a generational low of 9.2% among those in their 30s.

Furthermore, even in the Honam region (South Jeolla, Gwangju, North Jeolla), considered Lee Jae-myung's base of support, the approval rate remained at 16.3%, showing a deepening disregard from his supporters. This low approval rate reflects a very negative public perception of candidate Yong Hye-in.

According to a Channel A investigation, 6 out of 10 provincial party offices of the Basic Income Party were confirmed to be actual farms or apartments, not genuine offices. The Basic Income Party receives 150 million won in subsidies to operate its provincial offices, raising questions about the appropriateness of subsidy execution and the actual functioning of party offices.

The Blue House has announced its intention to push ahead with personnel hearings for candidates Yong Hye-in and Kim Seung-won, citing that they went through the personnel committee as justification. The chairperson of the personnel committee is Chief of Staff Kang Hoon-sik. However, this claim is criticized as a rationale to avoid uncovering the truth, including suspicions of Kim Hyun-ji's involvement.

The exposure of a tattoo by a Basic Income Party official has become controversial. Criticism has been raised that the act of deliberately exposing a tattoo as an official of a party holding a ministerial position is inappropriate in terms of public sentiment.

Park Hong-geun, Minister of Strategy and Finance, defended candidate Kim Seung-won by saying he was 'unjustly accused', but drew a line regarding candidate Yong Hye-in, stating it 'goes against public sentiment'. These remarks are interpreted as indicating that within the party, there is a mood of shielding Kim Seung-won while effectively 'discarding' Yong Hye-in.

Candidate Yong Hye-in is reportedly not in a position to voluntarily resign as she was created by a behind-the-scenes organization of the Democratic Party (including Kim Ki-ho). On the other hand, candidate Kim Seung-won is considered essential for Lee Jae-myung to dismiss charges, so his appointment is expected to be forced.

The approval rating for the People Power Party has risen, widening the gap with the Democratic Party to 3.6%p. In particular, the positive evaluation of Lee Jae-myung among the 2030 generation is declining, increasing the sense of crisis for the Democratic Party. This contrasts with the People Power Party's efforts targeting young people, such as Representative Jang Dong-hyuk's visit to Olympic Park. It is suggested that the Democratic Party should now diverge from Lee Jae-myung's policies and move in the direction the public desires.

Factors contributing to the People Power Party's rise in approval ratings include actions that evoke nostalgia for the conservative party during the presidencies of Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye. This includes former President Park Geun-hye's remarks emphasizing unity and floor leader Jeong Jeom-sik's visit to former President Lee Myung-bak. These movements led to a consolidation of support in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK) and Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (PK) regions.

In particular, the People Power Party's approval rating recorded 50.6% in the Daejeon-Sejong-Chungcheong region, often called a barometer of public sentiment, showing strong support.

The People Power Party's approval rating rose as the factions that were shaking Representative Jang Dong-hyuk quieted down. This leads to the analysis that the approval rating did not rise due to Representative Jang's lack of competence, but rather because of the factions undermining him. It is interpreted that the establishment of discipline through internal party sanctions ultimately led to a rebound in approval ratings.

Representative Lee Jin-sook's statement '5.18 is not sacred' and her clear conservative policy actions, such as disclosing the '5.18 auspicious site', are receiving great support within the conservative camp, and her potential as a future presidential candidate is emerging. The Democratic Party's criticism of her as 'female Chun Doo-hwan' instead provoked a backlash from the conservative camp, leading to a consolidation of support for Representative Lee Jin-sook.

The conservative camp believes that an accurate interpretation of 5.18 should be made, and as Representative Lee Jin-sook leads this charge, the perception of her as 'presidential material' is gradually spreading. This phenomenon shows that Representative Lee Jin-sook is addressing the concerns of the conservative camp and firmly solidifying her support base.

Within the People Power Party's support base, approval ratings for various candidates showed a tendency to be relatively even and dispersed, without significant differences. In contrast, the Democratic Party's supporters showed a phenomenon where approval ratings were concentrated on specific candidates, such as Kim Min-seok. This suggests that within the Democratic Party, support is coalescing around candidate Kim Min-seok.