Lee Jae-myung's Approval Rating Drops to 30s, A Sign of Government Crisis? Controversy Over Resolution Calling for Rep. Lee Jin-sook's Expulsion

In the third week of August, several polling agencies reported Lee Jae-myung's positive evaluation of state affairs in the 30% range. JoWon CNI recorded 38.9%, Every Research 38.7%, and Vision Korea 38.8%. Realmeter showed 40.2%, Korea Research 42%, Media Tomato 40%, and PenN research 36.3%.

The average positive evaluation from 7 major polls was aggregated at 39.3%. This shows a continuous downward trend, with over 60% of the public giving negative evaluations. Kwon Yeon-seo analyzed that this trend could be interpreted as the beginning of Lee Jae-myung's lame duck period.

According to JoWon CNI's state administration evaluation, only the Gwangju-Jeolla region recorded a relatively high positive evaluation of 65.3%. However, all regions except Honam showed low approval ratings in the 30s. Particularly, the Daejeon-Sejong-Chungcheong region recorded the lowest positive evaluation, suggesting an accelerating defection of centrist voters.

By age group, approval ratings for those aged 18 to 29, 30s, and 40s all showed a decline. Even among those in their 40s and 50s, who were considered Lee Jae-myung's core support base, low positive evaluation rates of 40.3% and 40.9% respectively were recorded. Furthermore, a negative evaluation of 32.2% appeared within the progressive bloc, indicating a deepening crack in the support base.

Lee Jae-myung's side at Cheong Wa Dae made its first remark regarding the poll results, stating, 'We extend our deepest condolences to the public.' This is analyzed as a recognition of the massive defection of centrist voters and the unfavorable sentiment within the progressive bloc. However, it is projected to be difficult to reverse the downward trend in public opinion that has already begun.

The People Power Party's approval rating among the 2030 generation surged, with 20s recording 60.9% and 30s nearing 47.2%. Kwon Hyun-seo analyzed that this transforms the People Power Party into a '2030 party' that captures the hearts of young people.

With Lee Jun-seok's resignation as leader of the Reform Party, attention is focused on the party's future moves. The Reform Party has established itself as a party representing moderate conservatives and the voice of youth. Currently, the Reform Party, with an approval rating of about 4%, and the People Power Party, which is becoming a 2030 party, are seeing the possibility of a political alliance through the consolidation of their party support bases.

Real estate policy was pointed out as the biggest reason for Lee Jae-myung's approval rating decline. Analysis suggests that those in their 40s and 50s, who were called the 'concrete support base,' are defecting due to rising housing prices and increased tax burdens. Deteriorating public sentiment over housing shortages is evaluated as having a decisive impact on the approval rating decline.

The policy of mandatory large-scale public rental housing in areas like Cheolsan and Gwangmyeong has led to strong protests from local residents. The supply policy, focused on Gyeonggi Province, is causing local public sentiment to turn away, with even calls for building apartments using the National Assembly building emerging.

A public opinion poll on the construction of rental housing in Yongsan Park showed that 56.6% opposed it, exceeding the majority. Support was only 36.3%, indicating a largely negative perception of the government's rental housing supply policy.

A survey found that 60% of respondents believe Lee Jae-myung's government's housing policies will not be helpful. In particular, controversy over the cost burden due to the extension of reconstruction/redevelopment periods has arisen, leading to criticism of the government's evasion of responsibility.

Lee Jae-myung pledged to supply one million basic homes during his time as Gyeonggi Province governor, expanding it to 1.4 million during the presidential election, but criticism has been raised that the policy's substance is currently unclear. While the government attempts to continue public rental housing for policy continuity, critics point out that the promised basic rental homes are either being created and then disappearing or are being discussed but then fading away.

Criticism is mounting against the Lee Jae-myung government's real estate policy, which is leaning heavily towards public rental housing. According to OECD research, young households need to accumulate assets through housing finance, but the Lee Jae-myung government's 'housing rights guarantee' policy is instead depriving young people of opportunities to increase their assets. This has led to growing dissatisfaction among young people, which is also analyzed as a factor influencing Lee Jae-myung's declining approval rating.

Experts point out that party approval rating poll results can vary in figures depending on the survey institution, such as JoWon CNI, Every News, and PenN Mike, and there is also a speed difference between ARS and phone interview methods. Therefore, rather than simply comparing figures, attention should be paid to the trend of the 'none/don't know' segment and the People Power Party's rise. It is important to read the overall flow rather than concluding that a specific party is falling behind or ahead.

At a plenary session of the National Assembly, the Democratic Party unilaterally passed a resolution calling for the expulsion of Rep. Lee Jin-sook. This is an unprecedented case in constitutional history for the National Assembly to pass a resolution urging the expulsion of a fellow lawmaker, and political debate is expected over the Democratic Party's unilateral passage. Rep. Lee Jin-sook protested this move and delivered a speech stating her position in the National Assembly plenary session.

In her National Assembly plenary speech, Rep. Lee Jin-sook raised doubts about the selection of May 18 persons of merit and the method of information disclosure, criticizing the sanctification of May 18. She characterized the Democratic Party's attempt at expulsion as a one-party dictatorship and suppression of freedom of expression. She also emphasized the public's right to question May 18-related suspicions, which involve taxpayers' money, and asserted that the public should judge the validity of the suspicions she raised.

The Democratic Party's passage of the resolution calling for Rep. Lee Jin-sook's expulsion has been analyzed as pressing a 'self-destruct button.' Critics point out that this could evoke political sympathy for Rep. Lee Jin-sook and increase her public recognition. Furthermore, concerns have been raised that this incident could further publicize discussions related to May 18 and spread critical public opinion against the Democratic Party.