Even Putin Bowed: The Power of Small Nations

At the Davos Forum, former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, noted that the global order is fragmenting, emphasizing that the role of middle powers has become more crucial than ever. Middle Power, a concept devised by diplomats during the Cold War, was historically based on geopolitical location or military strength, but has now transformed into the ability to control bottlenecks in specific sectors. This shift suggests an increasing role for countries other than great powers amidst the restructuring of the world order.

Middle powers are not economic or military superpowers, but they possess the ability to mediate conflicts between nations, convey messages, and lead negotiations. They secure substantial influence that can change the global landscape by siding with one party at critical moments. The ability to adjust the balance of power through mediation and leverage is considered a core strategic value of middle powers.

The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war blocked grain exports via the Black Sea, escalating a global food crisis. At this time, Turkey leveraged its friendly relations with both Russia and Ukraine, along with its geographical advantage facing the Black Sea, to act as a mediator. Turkey's mediation efforts, alongside the UN, crucially contributed to the signing of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in Istanbul in 2022, playing a vital role in alleviating the global food crisis.

The Financial Times introduced the concept of 'mini middle power,' referring to countries that are not great in terms of national strength but have an irreplaceable presence in one or two specific fields. They exert exclusive influence in key areas such as diplomacy, resources, and logistics, securing leverage that even great powers cannot ignore. Qatar, Oman, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan are considered representative mini middle powers.

Mini middle powers primarily exert key influence in two ways. First, through diplomacy, exemplified by Qatar and Oman, which mediate conflicts and serve as communication channels between great powers. Second, through geography and infrastructure, represented by the three Central Asian nations, which control logistics and land routes, occupying a critical position in global infrastructure. Through these type-specific strategies, these nations play important roles in the international community despite their limited national strength.

As the United States needed a political agreement to withdraw from Afghanistan, Qatar stepped in as a mediator for secret negotiations between the US and the Taliban. At the request of the US, a Taliban political office was established in Doha, the capital of Qatar, initiating secret contacts between the two sides. Ultimately, the Doha Agreement was signed in 2020, providing a way to end the war between the US and the Taliban, serving as a prime example of Qatar's diplomatic influence.

In the 2023 Gaza conflict, Qatar played a pivotal mediating role in the ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange negotiations between Hamas and Israel. As Qatar had long operated a Hamas political office in its capital, Doha, it was able to maintain communication channels with both sides. This demonstrates Qatar's strong influence as a key player in conflict zones.

Qatar has built neutral trust, allowing it to engage in dialogue with anyone, unbound by the ideologies of any particular bloc, earning it the moniker 'Switzerland of the Middle East.' Qatar is perceived by various actors, including great powers and armed groups, as a country that can provide what they need, thus being treated as a subject of political negotiation. This trust has helped Qatar establish itself as a 'managing office' in the Middle East, solidifying a diplomatic standing that great powers cannot easily betray.

In 2013, the first secret meeting between the United States and Iran took place in a secluded location in Muscat, the capital of Oman. This meeting played a crucial behind-the-scenes role in the eventual signing of the historic Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2015. Oman had long built a relationship of trust with Iran, while also maintaining close ties with the United States, secretly providing a dialogue channel between the two countries, thus playing a key mediating role in complex Middle Eastern diplomacy.

Due to its geopolitical importance regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Oman has been a key security partner for the United States, maintaining military cooperation for a long time. Concurrently, it established a deep historical relationship of trust with Iran, receiving support from Iran during the suppression of rebels in the 1970s. This unique dual relationship is the background for Oman's exclusive diplomatic position, allowing it to communicate with both the United States and Iran.

In 2015, during the Saudi coalition's bombing of Yemen, Oman was the only Gulf state to declare non-participation, opting out of the conflict. This was part of its pacifist diplomatic strategy to avoid making enemies, enabling Oman to serve as a trusted 'bamboo forest' that could maintain dialogue channels with any conflicting parties. By not participating in the war, Oman solidified its image as a mediator, securing an exclusive position as a channel for great powers' secret negotiations.

After the Russia-Ukraine war, freight volume passing through Kazakhstan increased by approximately 35%. This is because European companies chose the 'Middle Corridor' via Kazakhstan as an alternative to avoid the risks of Russian sanctions. Despite the inconvenience of crossing the Caspian Sea, the very existence of an alternative logistics route bypassing Russia acts as a national strength for Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan is a key gateway located between Russia and China, possessing a significant geographical asset: if it doesn't open the way through the Middle Corridor, China cannot send goods to Europe. Furthermore, in addition to oil, it is the world's largest uranium producer, accounting for over 40% of the global uranium supply. In the current situation where demand for nuclear power is increasing due to the expansion of AI data centers, Kazakhstan's uranium acts as powerful leverage that can critically influence the global energy market.

Kazakhstan maintains an independent diplomatic line despite being a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led security alliance. In 2022, at the Russian Economic Forum, the President of Kazakhstan officially stated that he does not recognize the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, even with Russian President Vladimir Putin sitting next to him. This action demonstrates Kazakhstan's will to exercise its sovereignty and not succumb to unilateral pressure from Russia, through multi-layered diplomatic relations with China, Europe, Turkey, and others.

After the Russia-Ukraine war, the European Union (EU) sought new suppliers to reduce its dependence on Russian gas. In this process, Azerbaijan, geographically close to Europe, emerged as an important alternative. The EU Commission President directly requested Azerbaijan to increase gas supply, which significantly boosted Azerbaijan's negotiating power as an alternative to Russian gas.

For Russia, which is facing Western sanctions, transporting goods to Iran and India necessarily requires passing through Azerbaijan. Furthermore, Azerbaijan has a fraternal relationship and military cooperation with Turkey, making it a strategically important country for Russia. From Russia's perspective, conflict with Azerbaijan could mean blocking a major route to the Middle East, so Russia carefully manages its relationship with Azerbaijan.

Uzbekistan is a country with a young domestic market comprising half the population of Central Asia, and it is the only country bordering all surrounding Central Asian nations, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Due to this geographical advantage, it is difficult to avoid Uzbekistan, the 'central crossroads,' when building a logistics network within the Eurasian continent. This means Uzbekistan has critical leverage over logistics flows not only within Central Asia but across Eurasia.

The core survival strategy for mini middle power nations is 'multi-directional diplomacy,' maintaining relations with various countries rather than going 'all in' with one side. This strategy neutralizes unilateral pressure from great powers and maximizes the value of their specific capabilities, securing an irreplaceable position. As a result, these countries possess diplomatic access that great powers cannot ignore in completing the international order, which serves as a crucial means for national security and prosperity.