Wait-and-See Mood Ahead of Nvidia Earnings — Avoid Leveraged Investing

The market currently expects Nvidia's revenue guidance at $91 billion and its market forecast at $92 billion. He also projected $85 billion in revenue from the data center segment.

Nvidia has already said it will set shareholder returns at 30% of free cash flow (FCF) for fiscal 2027. That is low compared with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which return around 50%. Taber suggested this return ratio could be a limiting factor on share price gains.

Taber pointed out that aggressive investing aimed at large returns draws attention but carries high risk. He stressed that only investors who can manage risk should attempt to pursue large returns, and advised caution toward high-return pursuits without risk management.

Citing examples of Samsung Electronics at 250,000 won and Nvidia at $200, he added that once this lower bound is clearly set, it becomes easier to predict the magnitude of rebounds and trends. This helps investors respond effectively to market volatility.

He said investors should work at this kind of analysis to find zones where they can earn steady returns, explaining that this is the core of actually capturing trend profits.

However, he said he does not invest in it because he lacks personal conviction in Tesla. He stressed that even for large caps, checking the bottom through charts is important, and presented this as an example of a careful approach to stocks one lacks confidence in.

The refund price set below its 52-week high also appears to have stimulated market participants' betting sentiment. Taber explained that these factors combined to have a positive effect on the share price.

Taber stated his conviction that he does not recommend cutting losses on long-held stocks such as Moderna. He said he does not know about other stocks, but clearly distinguishes for investors which stocks should be cut and which should not. This reflects his philosophy that risk management and the ability to tell stocks apart matter more in investing than returns.

He especially cited education, politics, psychology, and the silver industry, explaining that human interaction is central to these fields. He added that in law, judgment and psychological analysis that go beyond simple data processing are hard for AI to replace.

Taber defined stock investing as a domain of psychology that cannot be predicted from numbers and data alone. He argued that AI can do well at mid- to long-term company analysis, but live trading is an area where human psychology deeply intervenes, so AI would find it hard to fully replace. He expressed skepticism about the idea that AI will excel at stocks simply by looking at phenomena and data.

Citing past cases such as Lumentum and Coherent, he explained that supply-demand outflows can occur after index inclusion. He therefore suggested Bloom Energy's share price has already priced in much, and that a correction is possible going forward.

Taber said today's session will be dull, and that the market has settled below the 20-day moving average. He expects the market to move without any notable swings for the time being unless an unexpected variable such as a geopolitical crisis arises, and predicted a major move tomorrow morning depending on Nvidia's earnings release.

He explained that education that grasps the intent of a question and asks counter-questions based on a student's facial expressions is only possible with genuine human data, and stressed this is a domain unique to human education.

He acknowledged that as AI accumulates data such as facial expression and behavior analysis, it could gain an edge over humans in certain areas. However, he believes humans remain important in advanced application areas, especially customized one-on-one education tailored to each student.

Taber stressed that while AI can fully handle simple chart data interpretation, market psychological flows and the experiential judgment of seasoned investors are hard for AI to replace. He questioned whether robots and AI can fully reproduce the psychological factors and accumulated experience between people, expressed by the term 'jjambap,' and warned of risks that could arise when AI provides cheaper labor than humans, insisting that a domain unique to human investors exists.

Taber explained that independent research firms tend to focus on small-cap stocks, unlike brokerage firms. He noted that many who previously ran stock-tip chat rooms have moved into independent research, so they tend to emphasize only the positives and often fall short in after-sales management (AS) when stock picks fail. He warned investors to approach independent research information carefully rather than trusting it blindly.

Taber explained that although the company has earnings, its status as a small company focused on Korea and Asia made it vulnerable to declines driven by technical factors. He suggested that beyond a company's intrinsic value, technical factors in the market can also have a major effect on its share price.

Taber explained that if put option buying continues, institutions push the stock price down through short selling, and if call option buying persists, institutions that sold the calls must buy the stock, pushing the price up. This shows that share price moves are driven heavily not only by earnings and news but also by the movement of leveraged capital.

Taber stressed that investing is strictly a domain of response, so setting scenarios is essential. He said that personally, he plans to sell Nvidia if its share price exceeds $225–230. He expects that if the policy of returning only 30% of free cash flow (FCF) to shareholders does not change, breaking $250 this year will be difficult, and urged investors to approach carefully.

He said long-term investors with low average cost could consider holding, but that overall market conditions are unfavorable for leveraged investing. He therefore advised investors to manage their portfolios carefully.

Taber warned that a single stock making up 50% of a portfolio is a dangerous level. He advised diversifying across three stocks at roughly 30% each as a sensible approach. The larger the seed money, the greater the need for stock diversification, which he stressed is an essential strategy for risk management.

Taber pointed out that although Classys's revenue has grown, its profit margin has declined and should be watched. Its operating margin appears to be falling from the 50% range last year to the 40% range this year, which led to reports cutting target prices. He stressed that investors should focus their analysis on the causes of this margin decline.