Despite Nvidia's Strong Earnings... OpenAI, Interest Rate Variables

Currently, the market emphasizes a strategy of pursuing stable returns and waiting for clear liquidity to be secured, rather than aggressive trading in individual stocks. The analysis suggests avoiding trading individual stocks under 10 trillion won and seeking opportunities for comfortable long-term investment rather than short-term gains.

Despite Nvidia announcing strong earnings, there is a possibility that its stock price increase will be limited. Wall Street's anxiety exists somewhere, and understanding its nature seems to be key to future market trends. Therefore, the analysis suggests a need to re-evaluate the rationale for buying Nvidia, rather than focusing on short-term stock price fluctuations.

In the past, Nvidia's stock price sometimes fell after earnings announcements, but this announcement is different. The key is that Nvidia provided annual guidance for the first time, which is interpreted as a sign of the company's immense confidence. The forecast of 70% revenue growth for fiscal year 2027 served to raise market expectations.

Last year, Nvidia's quarterly revenue was expected to increase by $4 billion, but it actually increased by $15 billion in a single quarter, significantly exceeding expectations. This revenue surprise recorded a high rate of over 5%, showing growth beyond market expectations.

Nvidia recorded third-quarter revenue of $108 billion, surpassing the market consensus of $100 billion. Despite this being a record-breaking achievement, with quarterly revenue exceeding $100 billion for the first time, the market reaction was limited.

Hyperscaler investment demand is projected to increase significantly from $800 billion in 2026 to $1.3 trillion in 2027. This represents a high growth rate of approximately 60%, leading to expectations of continued growth in related industries.

Despite Nvidia presenting record-breaking revenue growth, its stock price has not risen significantly, which is attributed to the market's doubt as to whether the stated consensus can actually be achieved.

Real bottlenecks hindering AI industry growth are identified as the potential slowdown of OpenAI and the issues of power and water shortages. Additionally, strengthening regulations on data centers are acting as practical constraints.

OpenAI recorded $6.7 billion in revenue in the second quarter, but its operating loss reached $12.3 billion, indicating quarterly costs of approximately $19 billion. This level requires annual revenue of about $80 billion to break even. With the emergence of competitors like Claude, token prices are falling, raising concerns about OpenAI's deteriorating profitability.

US state governments are showing a trend towards strengthening regulations on data center expansion. They are requiring data centers to prepare their own power supply in addition to the existing grid, making power grid construction urgent. Such regulations could slow down data center expansion and impede the speed of AI infrastructure development.

Nvidia's mentioned supply constraints are mainly explained only in terms of back-end component procurement, and there is a lack of certainty regarding overall CapEx (capital expenditure) investments related to AI infrastructure development. This acts as a factor increasing uncertainty about the overall growth of the AI industry.

Despite Nvidia announcing strong earnings, its stock price has not shown a strong upward trend. This is attributed to not fully meeting market expectations regarding the anticipated surge in memory semiconductor demand and supply shortages. Some experts have expressed concern that the stock price should have climbed higher at this point.

Despite favorable news, domestic semiconductor stocks are not gaining upward momentum. The fact that the KOSPI index closed with a bearish candle despite Hynix's 4% rise indicates market 불안감. This resembles past cases where leading stocks like LG Innotek and Samsung Electro-Mechanics lost their upward drive, raising concerns about a general loss of leadership in the semiconductor sector. In the stock market, it is common for a stock to surge strongly by 7-8% when good news occurs, and the absence of such movement at this point is considered highly significant.

The current market shows a cyclical trend with supply and demand dispersed across various sectors, but experts emphasize that the semiconductor sector should be exhibiting the strongest leadership at this point. However, semiconductors are losing momentum, and the failure to maintain the opening price despite positive news like share buybacks is considered an unusual phenomenon.

The Bank of Korea's mid-day decision to raise interest rates clearly impacted the market. Initially, the probability of a rate hike was estimated at 50-50, but the actual tightening outcome weighed on the market. The phrases in the monetary policy statement expressing inflation concerns and hinting at further hikes are analyzed as factors dampening market sentiment.

Rising interest rates act as a major factor reducing market valuations. While US interest rates are most crucial, domestic interest rate increases also exert 'interest rate gravity' on the market, negatively impacting overall investment sentiment. This increases companies' funding costs and reduces the value of future cash flows, putting pressure on stock prices.

Concerns about yen carry trade liquidation arise due to Japan's interest rate hike, but actual liquidation requires a prior strengthening of the yen. However, with Japan maintaining a 'two-legged driving' stance of both quantitative easing and interest rate hikes, it seems difficult for the yen to strengthen. This situation suggests that yen carry trade liquidation may be delayed for the time being.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is currently facing a policy dilemma. If it does not raise interest rates, it would have to consider quantitative tightening (QT), but with bond yields already high, implementing QT could cause significant market turmoil. In this situation, a rate hike could actually be an alternative to resolve liquidity issues. It is expected that the Fed will deliberate deeply on the rate hike option, which could be interpreted as a move to prevent a repeat of policy missteps in addressing inflation, as seen in 2022. The Fed faces the difficult task of maintaining a high interest rate stance while finding a balance that does not harm market stability. It will likely consider various policy tools to achieve both liquidity reduction and inflation control. This deliberation will be an important variable in determining the Fed's future monetary policy direction.