OpenAI Boost Drives Semiconductor Market Surge

Hana Securities has launched a new 'V' app that allows integrated trading of domestic and international stocks on a single screen. This app is designed to be flexible for users' investment styles, supporting switching between a simple mode and a pro mode. In particular, it has enhanced investment convenience by introducing an automatic stock purchase service called 'Stock Mosquito'.

The Hana Securities 'V' app focuses on providing personalized investment information by incorporating an AI assistant function. This AI assistant helps investors quickly grasp market trends by providing news summaries and key research points. Furthermore, it plans to offer an interesting and intuitive investment experience to investors with a function that recommends customized ETFs based on an analysis of their long-term holdings, along with an 'ETF MBTI' feature.

Recently, U.S. employment indicators caused market instability due to a discrepancy between predictions and actual figures. CEO Lee Kwon-hee advised against focusing too much on employment indicators. He emphasized that employment data has revisions and is heavily influenced by seasonal factors and short-term part-time jobs, so excessive interpretation of isolated figures should be avoided.

The positive news from OpenAI acted as a powerful booster for the market, causing AI hardware sectors to surge. Major semiconductor design companies like Nvidia and Broadcom showed strength, and cloud-related stocks also continued their upward trend. In particular, the stock prices of AI-related companies generally surged, with SoftBank's stock rising by 10%.

CEO Lee Kwon-hee analyzed that the market mood shifted with the public release of 'Astra' in September. He assessed that Astra's influence was more significant than the Clarity Act, which was considered a turning point, positively impacting the market. This led to results demonstrating higher profitability than interest rate variables, and the memory semiconductor sector, in particular, saw a sharp rise of 6-8%.

Despite intensified competition due to the delayed listing of Anthropic, demand for memory semiconductors is surging. An additional 400,000 units of memory are expected to be invested in AI training based on 100,000 units of Blackwell, indicating that the growth of the AI industry is strongly driving memory demand. This increase in demand is expected to lead to a memory price defense effect, ultimately suggesting that memory prices will not fall.

CEO Lee Kwon-hee diagnosed that excessive fear about China's rise in semiconductors should be avoided. He explained that while it is true that CXMT exceeded a 10% share in DRAM, this should be viewed separately from expansion issues. The reason all experts point out that semiconductor expansion within China is very difficult is due to the severe shortage of supplies from global equipment manufacturers. He analyzed that China's localization rate for semiconductor equipment is still low, and there are many difficulties in automating manufacturing processes, indicating clear limitations in its self-sufficient expansion.

While news of China creating HBM3 samples raised concerns about a narrowing technology gap with Korea, CEO Lee Kwon-hee emphasized that Korea's ultra-gap remains. Korea has already begun HBM4 development and is even preparing for HBM5. He analyzed that the HBM specifications required by customers are very complex and highly difficult, making it challenging to catch up merely by producing samples. Furthermore, China has limitations in its ability to supply its domestic demand, suggesting its influence in the global market will be limited.

CEO Lee Kwon-hee believes that with the global trend of rising interest rates and increased government bond issuance under state capitalism, the U.S. will adopt a strategy of reducing its debt ratio through growth. He explained that the U.S. is managing debt maturities through a strategy of reducing long-term bonds and expanding short-term bonds, and will try to manage the national debt ratio by expanding the GDP denominator through the growth of the AI industry. This strategy focuses more on indirect debt management through economic growth rather than direct debt repayment.

CEO Lee Kwon-hee explained that inflation is an effective means of reducing the value of debt. Since a certain level of inflation lowers the real value of debt, the U.S. is likely to try to alleviate its debt burden by utilizing inflation rather than directly repaying debt. From this perspective, the Clarity Act and buyback policies can also be interpreted as part of a debt management strategy, which could be the background for the U.S. government tolerating inflation.

Ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, former President Trump is campaigning to attract domestic semiconductor investment and promote it as an achievement during his term. The current U.S. demand for continuous semiconductor investment is analyzed to contain a political motive: to emphasize that they attracted investment during their time in power. This suggests that political pressure may influence corporate investment decisions.

Historically, it is very rare for the ruling party to win the House of Representatives in U.S. midterm elections. CEO Lee Kwon-hee predicted that, given these statistical tendencies, the ruling party's chances of winning the House in the upcoming midterm elections are low. Therefore, a change in the composition of the House is highly anticipated more than the Senate, which could significantly impact the future U.S. political landscape and policy direction.

Statements from politicians regarding data center regulations mainly stem from electricity costs and water issues. However, CEO Lee Kwon-hee analyzed that beyond such political rhetoric, data centers are likely to expand into regions where Republicans have won. The U.S. has a vast land area with great regional diversity, and Republican-led areas may be proactive in attracting data centers to stimulate their economies. This could present new opportunities for data center site selection.

CEO Lee Kwon-hee pointed out that individual investors exhibit a contradictory psychology of hoping for stock price increases while not holding shares. He also explained that they repeat a pattern of selling in fear when stock prices rebound. Since there is no change in fundamentals, he emphasized that a strategy of holding stocks tightly and enduring is crucial now, and investors should maintain their holdings without being swayed by market fluctuations.

CEO Lee Kwon-hee affirmed that the fundamentals of Samsung Electronics and Hynix are solid, and a long-term upward trend will be maintained unless the AI industry completely halts. The AI industry's growth curve is still pointing upwards, and from this perspective, now could be the last opportunity for AI-related investments. He recommended investing based on strong faith in the future of the AI industry.

HBM is produced as a custom-order product according to customer specifications, meaning HBM supplied to a specific customer cannot be sold elsewhere. This demonstrates the unique structure of the HBM market. Supply contracts are typically made on an annual basis, and the HBM market is expected to enter a full-fledged expansion phase from Q4 2027. CEO Lee Kwon-hee analyzed that HBM-related companies are undergoing a valuation re-rating process similar to TSMC.

CEO Lee Kwon-hee advised investors who maintain a bullish outlook that the most important strategy for 'turning on the happy circuit' is to safeguard the stocks they currently hold. He also added that it's necessary to combine this with a rotation investment strategy into sectors other than semiconductors. This is interpreted as a strategy to pursue stable returns through portfolio diversification and to respond flexibly to market changes.

Following a forecast of 7,500 points last February, the current index remains around 6,800 points. CEO Lee Kwon-hee attributed the index decline to a 'long-short battle'. He analyzed that the current market is in a process of finding psychological stability before fundamentals return. This suggests that investor sentiment is significantly influencing market movements, with an ultimate expectation that the index will rise once fundamentals recover.