After the Tax Reform Plan: Worries Deepen for Single-Home Owners by Type

He explained that while it is difficult to cover every case for single-home owners, their concerns can be broadly divided into several types. He stressed that because complicated factors such as taxes and loans are intertwined, each person needs a response strategy suited to their own situation.

Even if they decide to sell so as not to lose all their price gains to taxes, deciding how to use the assets after the sale is important. They said it is not enough to simply convert the asset to cash; one should look for ways to reinvest it or put it to other uses.

Although they were not wealthy to begin with, price gains were so large that their holding taxes have become hard to bear. They analyzed that it is uncertain whether current price gains will continue into the future, and that if they keep the homes, a 'holding tax bomb' is already scheduled, leaving them no choice but to sell. They also raised concern that the realization of public land prices will make the holding tax burden even heavier.

They bought homes by making maximum use of loans. Because current home prices are under 2 billion won, there is no major problem for now, but the burden of loan interest over the long term is the issue. Even if the cap of 2 billion won in 2028 and 1 billion won in 2029 is applied, it would not be a big problem, but since YOLO buyers must keep paying interest, if they hold the homes long term they may have to bear interest for more than 10 years. He pointed out that while this may be fine from an asset-growth standpoint, it can be a major burden on cash flow.

He explained that although they are not directly affected by the tax reform plan and live in their homes, they have their own concerns. As prices in the market for homes under 1.5 billion won are expected to rise, there is worry about whether their own homes will rise as well as others. They feel a sense of isolation that prices in other areas are rising sharply while theirs rise relatively less, and many are also deeply concerned about whether they can move from their current mid-to-low-priced homes to a more valuable upper-tier location.

Mediterra predicted that after this tax reform plan is announced, single-home owners will have more worries than owners of multiple homes. He said the concerns of ultra-high-priced single-home owners and 'YOLO-leverage' single-home owners are the core topics of this video. He stressed that these two groups are the most directly affected by the changes in the real estate market and the tax burden, and that it is important to address their concerns in depth. Through this discussion, he plans to explore the realistic problems single-home owners face and ways to respond.

He cautioned that as the public land price of homes soars, holding taxes could reach hundreds of millions of won. For a home with a price gain of 4 billion won, the market price would be even higher, and the public land price would rise significantly accordingly, meaning owners might have to pay hundreds of millions of won in holding taxes every year. He added that even for a single-home owner, paying hundreds of millions of won in taxes every year would be a heavy burden.

However, Mediterra explained that this is minor compared with the overall decline of 8,800 listings from May 9 through the end of July. He analyzed that the increase in ultra-high-priced listings is not enough to stabilize the market, suggesting that selling pressure may not be as large as expected.

Mediterra argued that while many people think that if ultra-high-priced home prices fall, homes priced below them will also fall in a chain, this will not actually happen. He explained that changes in the ultra-high-priced market will not immediately have a large impact on the whole market, and that sales will also be spread over time. This means ultra-high-priced owners are more likely to wait for an advantageous moment rather than rush to put their homes on the market.

Mediterra stressed that even if ultra-high-priced home prices fall, homes at lower price levels will not fall along with them. This is because the proceeds from selling ultra-high-priced homes can flow into other housing markets and support the high-priced or low-priced market. In other words, as ultra-high-priced sellers buy new homes, market liquidity will be maintained, and he explained this is unlikely to lead to an overall downturn.

Mediterra viewed it as realistically difficult for the plan to pass in full. Considering the positions of Seoul-area National Assembly members, if the plan passes in its current form it will face backlash from local residents. He predicted that passage will not be easy unless the concerns of lawmakers, who cannot help but consider their constituents' votes, over how to respond to residents' backlash are resolved.

For example, if an apartment in Banpo bought 30 years ago for 500 million to 1 billion won has risen to 4 to 5 billion won today, they may need to take out a loan to cover next year's holding tax. Ultimately they would have to sell the home to repay the loan, so Mediterra explained that such homes are hard to keep. This shows that despite the rise in asset value, owners are forced to consider selling because of cash-flow problems.

Even if they decide to sell, they find it hard to actually proceed without a clear answer about what to do afterward. He explained that most people cannot make a decision due to anxiety about asset management or living arrangements after the sale. He stressed that establishing a concrete plan for after the sale is as important as the decision to sell.

Mediterra declared that the era in which only expensive homes rose is over, and that there is no need to insist on high-priced homes at any cost. He said that just as a 2 billion won home rises by 200 million won, complexes priced under 1 billion won are also taking on a mood of rising by 200 million won. He analyzed that if this trend continues, there will be no need to hold expensive homes unconditionally while bearing excessive tax burdens. This suggests that in investment strategy, the time has come to weigh value and efficiency more than price level.

Mediterra advised owners who plan to keep high-priced homes to check at least four years of holding taxes in advance and thoroughly review their cash capacity. He stressed that rather than hastily deciding to hold in an uncertain situation, it is important to accurately grasp the expected tax burden and build a cash-flow plan accordingly. He added that this is an essential process for avoiding financial difficulty from sudden increases in holding taxes and for making sound asset-management decisions.

He explained that the market is rising only in specific areas like tweezers, and that even homes right next door sometimes do not rise in price. He analyzed that the biggest reason ultra-high-priced single-home owners or high-priced owners hesitate to sell is that their asset value 5 to 10 years from now can differ greatly depending on how they buy their next home. He added that they are falling into even deeper worry because it is hard to find an answer right now.

Due to sudden policy changes, tax burdens are rising abruptly, and people are being forced to pay taxes they cannot accept without any way to resist. He explained that since resisting only adds penalty taxes, people in this situation experience trauma and psychological pressure, to the point of wanting to lose interest in real estate altogether. He added that regret over wrong choices amplifies these feelings.

He cited Hannam-dong and Seongsu-dong as examples, explaining that people who, using a 10-year-old investment strategy of stretching to pay off loans, were just starting to catch their breath and had waited for new apartments there, thinking they had hit the 'life lottery.' He added that they had considered these areas not worth selling, but this tax reform plan has put them in deep worry.

He then announced that these topics will be covered in detail at an offline lecture on August 22 for viewers who have in-depth concerns about investment strategies and direction after selling. He encouraged people who have decided to sell and are unsure about the next step to attend the lecture.

Mediterra asked attendees to clarify their own situation before joining the offline lecture and to come prepared with the information they most want to get. He said that only by knowing exactly what type of single-home owner they are (ultra-high-priced, high-priced, etc.) can they properly understand the lecture content and take away the information they need. He stressed that attending without understanding one's situation may prevent people from absorbing the content properly, and added that to help with this, he had divided and explained single-home owner types in advance in today's video.