AI industry pace adjustment, changes in interest rates and oil prices emerge as key variables for the domestic stock market in September.
This is interpreted as a strategy to curb the market entry of new competitors and solidify U.S.-led AI hegemony. AI technology verification will require time, and moves to maintain the exclusive positions of certain companies are expected to accelerate.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stock prices fell once, then recovered, and then fell again. Currently, they are at a critical juncture of whether they will recover the 60-day moving average or fall further without recovering. While memory sector stocks are currently below the 60-day line, component and equipment companies are above it, so preparation is needed.
The analysis suggests that competition will intensify rather than a single company dominating. In 2028, an increase in supply from China's CXMT could impact the market, and the general-purpose semiconductor market may enter a phase of intensified long-term supply competition.
This period, with the FOMC meeting coinciding with Korea's Chuseok holiday, could cause significant market volatility. There is also a possibility of a seasonal bottom being confirmed ahead of the midterm elections, and attention should be paid to memory semiconductor market volatility after the scheduled U.S.-China summit on the 24th.
Although oil prices have surpassed $100, historically they have never remained above $150 for 100 years, and prolonged periods above $100 for more than a month are rare. Considering these past patterns, the current oil price above $100 is likely a short-term phenomenon. It is relatively probable that oil prices will fall below $100 again next month.
While interest rates may be hiked once in the short term, the prevailing view is that further increases will be postponed for a considerable period. One hike this year and two next year are generally expected. Current interest rate indicator volatility is solely due to rising oil prices; if oil prices fall, the interest rate hike outlook is likely to revert to its original state.
Furthermore, a major objective is to guard against technology theft by 'cherry-picking' entities like China. The introduction of an external evaluation system to promote U.S.-centric AI standardization also serves as a crucial background for pace adjustment.
As evidenced by Oracle's earnings showing a turnaround in operating cash flow, hyperscalers are expected to see improved operating cash flow. Therefore, the analysis suggests that overall investment sentiment in AI cannot be hindered by earnings growth.
Unlike general consumer goods, IT devices must be accompanied by new product innovation when prices rise. Increased unit costs for memory or displays promote hardware innovation, and new, innovative models at a price consumers can bear are expected to emerge.
The launch of new hardware products such as smart glasses and humanoid robots is expected to accelerate. Rather than ending, the IT hardware cycle in 2025 is likely to speed up.
Companies are incentivized to introduce new products to offset higher component prices. When memory prices fall after innovation, profits can be generated through spread expansion, and the hardware cycle shows a repetitive pattern, with a new innovation boom expected in 2027.
Current AI data center plans are expected to materialize in 2027. Increased investment by hyperscalers and HBM expansion by Samsung Electronics and Micron will coincide at this time. As data centers expand, power and energy will emerge as new bottleneck areas, presenting a significant challenge for AI infrastructure development.
The HBM market is expected to shift from a structure where specific companies reap exclusive profits to a diversified system. Starting next year, Samsung Electronics' HBM production capacity will significantly expand, and Micron will also increase production, likely narrowing the market share gap. This suggests that SK Hynix's unmatched growth rate may slow down.
The 12-month forward earnings per share (EPS) in the second half is highly volatile, so PER-centric investment was valid until the first half but carries significant uncertainty after that. Therefore, when evaluating memory companies like Samsung Electronics, it is necessary to re-examine the PBR indicator.
Samsung Electronics' current PBR is around 1.6 times, and this band is expected to rise. With non-cyclical revenue projected to exceed 30%, a PBR of 1.5 times is expected to act as a floor. Based on this, analysis suggests Samsung Electronics' stock price has a potential for a 30% increase within 12 months.
Total energy demand for data centers in 2040 is expected to be 3-5 times current levels, with efforts to address this concentrating in 2027. Visible orders and realized earnings for Energy Storage Systems (ESS), along with new momentum for future nuclear power introduction, are expected to continue. Stronger earnings are also anticipated for ESS-related companies like CATL.
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