Growing Uncertainty Over the Clarity Act

Currently, Bitcoin's price is moving sideways between $87,000 and $88,000, and the next key indicator to watch is the 500-day moving average at $88,000.

Over the weekend, risk asset prices showed an upward trend on expectations for U.S.-Iran negotiations.

President Trump assessed the talks as 'a very good meeting' and hinted at the possibility of additional talks, which also influenced the formation of a risk-easing atmosphere in U.S.-Russia relations.

These market expectations were already priced in beforehand, so a sideways trend was maintained after the general assembly, and oil prices showed a decline due to progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Reports emerged that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened within 7 days if U.S. military pressure is eased.

This led to expectations that inflation pressure would ease through falling oil prices and Treasury yields would decline, and the probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in October fell to 54.2%.

Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline and Yanbu port shipments resumed, directly impacting the decline in international oil prices.

Iran reducing its conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz from four to one acted as a positive signal, but it later increased the conditions back to three, making the direction of negotiations unclear.

The outlook is that Iranian President Pezeshkian's UN speech scheduled for September 23 could be a turning point for the market.

The current price increase is judged to be the result of already being priced into the market.

If this upward trend is not sustained, there is a short-term risk that prices could instead fall on Thursday or Friday.

There have been claims of price declines due to Chinese people liquidating digital assets before the holiday, but an analysis of Bitcoin fluctuations by year shows that there were more years when it actually rose before the holiday.

The 2021 decline is analyzed as being due to the aftermath of the China Evergrande real estate crisis and cryptocurrency bans, not the holiday.

Post-holiday market trends tend to be determined more by macroeconomic variables than by specific seasonality.

White House and financial authority officials stated that passing legislation during the lame-duck session would be difficult.

Patrick Witt, Chief of Staff of the White House Digital Assets Capital Committee, emphasized that rules would be established using the SEC and CFTC even without legislation, and a U.S. Treasury Deputy Secretary for Financial Affairs also foreshadowed regulation centered on executive branch agencies rather than Congress.

While the will of negotiating lawmakers within the Democratic Party remains, realistically there is insufficient time needed to pass the legislation.

This remark has policy ramifications comparable to the August 19 buyback remark, and after it was mentioned, prices of stablecoin-related assets such as Uniswap rebounded and momentum formed for Bitcoin.

Although it has not yet been prominently covered domestically, it is interpreted as a positive signal for the market.

This amendment contains content to expand the scope by changing the wording of the prohibition on interest payments from 'equivalent' systems to 'similar' systems.

Such ambiguously expanded regulatory scope could cause industry backlash, and as it could also act as a variable within the Republican Party, the possibility of a strategic shift centered on persuading Democrats has been raised.

With the momentum for the legislation lost, political rhetoric blaming the Democratic Party is being repeated, and the perception is spreading that executive-led rulemaking would be more efficient in a legal vacuum.

There is precedent of about $40 million being spent on a campaign to defeat Vice President JD Vance in the past, and the industry shows a cynical atmosphere that money alone cannot change policy, as digital asset legislation was voted down despite lobbying.

Accordingly, changes appeared in Binance's stablecoin market share, with USDT's share, which had previously reached 75%, declining to the 60% range, while USDC rose from the 10% range to around 25%.

Binance's default setting for USDC on the exchange and increased futures market trading volume appear to have acted as background for this strengthened investment and cooperation.

This is a position that had mainly come from the People Power Party, and it is evaluated as significant as an unusual stance from the Democratic Party side.

The prevailing view is that introducing the digital asset basic law in September will be difficult due to situations such as the Financial Services Commission's organizational restructuring.

However, Assemblymember Min Byeong-deok and others are continuing discussions through subcommittee meetings in November and hope the bill will be introduced at the end of the year or early next year.

It was revealed that the ruling party was also aware of the existing problems with digital asset taxation.

As the digital asset basic law has not yet been introduced, a taxation deferral of at least one year is certain.

Currently, digital asset taxation is planned to be implemented starting in 2027.

However, cautious forecasts are emerging in the media and political circles that the taxation point could be pushed further to 2028 or 2029.

However, there are points out that it is difficult to verify authenticity with only the disclosed data, and the facts require further confirmation.

The question remains that the disclosed records are limited to 2018 to 2021, so performance after that cannot be known.

After the famous trader's trading records were disclosed, there were attempts to use them to create automated bots, but warnings emerged that this cannot succeed.

The main factors for success lie not in simple trading record data but in the investment judgment rationale at the time and detailed strategies that are not recorded, such as canceling limit orders.

For ordinary investors to simply follow the same strategy is dangerous behavior that can lead to large losses.