Trump's North Korea Card: Instability in Korean Peninsula Affairs

Dr. Cho Han-bum analyzed that former President Trump is currently facing a domestic political crisis and is likely to attempt an agreement with North Korea as a strategy to overcome it. Trump has not achieved significant results in issues like Iran, so he will try to find a breakthrough through a meeting with Chairman Kim Jong Un. Dr. Cho stated, "It's a Trump-style reality show. Suddenly, after struggling with Iran and realizing it won't work, what cards are left? Kim Jong Un is what's left." He also raised questions about the possibility of Trump showing a different stance from his previous positions on issues such as the deployment of combat troops.

Dr. Cho Han-bum cited North Korea's international recognition as one reason Trump might pursue a meeting with Chairman Kim Jong Un. Since Chairman Kim Jong Un is a well-known figure worldwide, a meeting between the two leaders would attract enormous attention. Dr. Cho explained, "The whole world knows him. Kim Jong Un is notorious, famous. If the two meet, they'll grab all the world's attention. So it's a Trump-style reality show." This is interpreted as Trump's strategic intention to use the North Korea card to focus public attention during a time of political crisis.

Dr. Cho Han-bum pointed out that despite being rich in resources, North Korea faces economic difficulties due to strong U.S. sanctions. He explained the reality of North Korea's economy, stating, "If you're sanctioned by the U.S., your economy has no future. North Korea's exports are 95% sanctioned; how can it have a future?" He analyzed that while North Korea has shown growth in the manufacturing sector recently, this is mostly concentrated on military production, and the living economy continues to worsen due to sanctions against North Korea.

An analysis suggests that the true nature of North Korea's economic growth is centered on construction and military supplies. Dr. Cho Han-bum stated that North Korea's economic growth rate recorded 6.3% in the construction sector and 6.6% in manufacturing, which includes military production. However, he pointed out that infrastructure sectors such as electricity and water recorded a negative growth of -0.4% last year, revealing the extreme fragility of the civilian economy. He explained, "It's growth led by construction at 6.3%. Manufacturing is 6.6% because of military supplies. But electricity and water were -0.4% last year. The civilian economy is a mess," emphasizing that this imbalance has led to soaring rice prices and exchange rates, making residents' lives even harder.

Based on former President Trump's statement that he received a message from Chairman Kim Jong Un and responded, Dr. Cho Han-bum analyzed that there likely were exchanges of personal letters between the North Korean and U.S. leaders. This demonstrates Trump's willingness to engage in dialogue with Kim Jong Un. Dr. Cho mentioned, "President Trump said he received a message and responded to Kim Jong Un. I think he probably sent a letter. So Kim Jong Un would have received the letter," suggesting the possibility of active behind-the-scenes contacts between the two sides.

From Chairman Kim Jong Un's perspective, a meeting with former President Trump could be a strategic opportunity. Dr. Cho Han-bum pointed out that unlike the Bush administration's 'axis of evil' remarks, Trump treated Kim Jong Un as a 'nice guy,' showing an ambiguous attitude regarding friend or foe. Trump's non-political approach serves as an advantage for Kim Jong Un to establish relations without burden. Dr. Cho commented, "From Kim Jong Un's perspective, he met Trump, the ultimate figure. Trump is a person without a standard for good or evil. If you treat him this way, there's no distinction between friend or foe," interpreting that Kim Jong Un intends to escape international isolation through Trump.

The possibility of a meeting between Trump and Kim Jong Un leading to an undesirable strategic agreement has been raised. Dr. Cho Han-bum believes that Trump, conscious of public opinion in the U.S., might attempt an agreement with North Korea. In particular, with North Korea having deployed tactical weapons capable of attacking South Korea, there are concerns that Trump might agree to de facto recognition of North Korea's nuclear arsenal. He emphasized, "They might meet, Kim Jong Un and Trump, and make an agreement that we don't want. Do you know what that unavoidable thing is? North Korea has already deployed tactical weapons capable of attacking South Korea," warning that this could deepen the disconnect between the threat to the U.S. mainland and Korean Peninsula security.

The danger of a nuclear development freeze agreement being mistaken for denuclearization has been pointed out. Dr. Cho Han-bum analyzed that Chairman Kim Jong Un might agree to halt future nuclear development rather than denuclearize the nuclear weapons he currently possesses. He questioned, "But is Kim Jong Un denuclearizing the nuclear weapons he has now, or stopping the development he's doing now? He's stopping development, isn't he?" He warned that such an agreement could be used by Trump as a political achievement, but for Kim Jong Un, it could lead to de facto international recognition of his nuclear arsenal. This could be a dangerous agreement far from the goal of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.

Concerns have been raised that the territorial clause could cause serious problems if an end-of-war declaration is pursued. Dr. Cho Han-bum pointed out that if it moves to a peace treaty or end-of-war declaration, Article 1 will include a territorial clause, and North Korea could use this as a basis to claim the Military Demarcation Line as its national border. He explained, "If it goes to a peace treaty or end-of-war declaration, Article 1 will be a territorial clause. Then what will North Korea say? They'll say, 'This is the border.'" If the U.S. were to endorse such a territorial clause, it could result in the de facto recognition of two Korean states and accelerate North Korea's efforts to borderize the Military Demarcation Line.

An analysis suggests that Chairman Kim Jong Un is trying to elevate his global diplomatic standing through successive meetings with leaders of major countries. Dr. Cho Han-bum explained that if Kim Jong Un meets former President Trump, he would have the opportunity to meet all major world leaders, standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Xi Jinping, Putin, and Trump. He commented, "If Kim Jong Un meets Trump this time, what happens? Kim Jong Un, the world's biggest rogue, would meet all major world leaders, standing alongside Xi Jinping, Putin, and Trump." This is seen as a strategic decision that even without specific achievements, the meeting itself would be a 'profitable deal' for Kim Jong Un to secure international legitimacy and shed his isolated image.

The debate over the truth of rumors about additional North Korean troop deployments to Russia continues. Initially, President Zelensky expected 30,000 troops, but reports suggested it increased to 50,000, which Vice Department Director Kim Yo Jong officially denied. Dr. Cho Han-bum stated, "Kim Yo Jong denied it immediately when Zelensky initially estimated a deployment of 30,000 troops and then raised it to 50,000. So, for now, it's not happening." He suggested that actual deployment has not yet occurred. However, according to the mutual defense treaty between Russia and North Korea, North Korean troop deployment is conditionally possible, and analysis suggests that additional deployment remains possible, with approximately 8,500 to 10,000 troops reportedly already deployed.