Bitcoin Taking a Different Path from Stock Market and Gold

The U.S. stock market showed an upward trend supported by declining Treasury yields and reduced probability of rate hike increases. In particular, AI-related growth is offsetting downward pressure, continuing a steady movement.

Gold has maintained strong consolidation as the pattern of moving opposite to the dollar index has continued for two months.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin followed the stock market in September but began to lose momentum from late in the month, showing weak consolidation during U.S. market hours, with additional declines coming in the morning.

In August, a debasement trade phenomenon appeared where gold and Bitcoin rose together. This was an unusual flow where traditional safe assets and Bitcoin became synchronized.

However, since September, Bitcoin has decoupled from gold and shown a tendency to follow risk assets like the U.S. stock market such as the Nasdaq. However, since late September, its upward momentum has lagged behind the stock market, failing to secure an independent position.

Bitcoin spot trading volume in September showed a slight increase compared to August, but analysts noted that new user inflows are slowing as the rate of increase is not steep. On a weekly basis, a trend of decreasing spot trading volume in early October is confirmed.

The slowdown in spot trading volume from late September through October signals that new users have essentially stopped entering the market.

Bitcoin ETFs have shown net inflows recently, but have switched to net outflows since late last week.

Concerns about investors switching to other assets are increasing due to strong semiconductor stocks.

According to on-chain data, a recent increase in selling pressure from investors who bought Bitcoin one to two years ago has been confirmed.

This influx of selling volume has created a phenomenon where Bitcoin price is restricted from further rises in the mid-$80,000 range.

This demonstrates the impact of currency fluctuations on actual felt returns.

With MicroStrategy resuming purchases near $100 and MetaPlanet increasing its holdings to become one of the world's top three listed companies, buying momentum from digital asset-related companies has become active again. This is drawing attention as a new turning point in the market.

MicroStrategy has resumed Bitcoin purchases near the $100 par value level, and Striv has increased its holdings by purchasing an additional 2,000 Bitcoin over the past week.

MetaPlanet has significantly expanded its Bitcoin holdings and emerged as one of the world's top three listed companies with Bitcoin holdings, showing aggressive investment activity.

Lyn Alden suggested in August that Bitcoin's asset value was strengthened as U.S. fiscal issues came to the fore.

She identified Bitcoin as an alternative asset amid fiscal crisis and analyzed its ability to secure value in the short term.

Bitcoin spot ETFs briefly switched to outflows this week, but overall annual inflows continue to expand. This is still interpreted as a positive signal for the market.

Supply reduction from the halving is also analyzed to have a positive long-term impact on Bitcoin prices. While short-term volatility exists, Bitcoin is evaluated as having strong upside potential over the long term.

The narrative strengthened or weakened depending on comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Bitcoin is expected to reach $100,000 if it rises about 20% from current levels.

OKX secured additional investments from Circle, Ripple, and Standard Chartered Ventures, demonstrating clear commitment to its tokenization business.

The exchange plans to establish a joint venture with ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, and use SEC innovation exemptions to build an exchange capable of raising $75 million annually and issuing tokenized securities.

The exchange will introduce on-chain swap transactions using Uniswap technology instead of traditional order books, offering a differentiated approach.

The tokenized securities exchange is expected to improve transaction efficiency and transparency by adopting on-chain swap methods rather than order book formats.

The platform acts as an intermediary to address the difficulty traditional financial institutions like banks and securities firms face in coordinating with various blockchain networks.

It partnered with real-world asset tokenization (RWA) technology firms including Securitize, Circle, and Canton, aiming to reduce complexity for institutions using diverse blockchain networks like Ethereum and Solana.

Gitl provides various features necessary for digital asset transactions such as fee handling, e-wallets, and transaction history collection, enabling institutional investors to efficiently operate digital asset businesses.

Samsung Electronics filed a new technology patent to address the inconvenience and security risks of digital asset transfers and transactions using private keys.

The technology enables users to request transactions by inputting transaction information into devices such as smartphones and wearables without private keys. This represents an application of traditional security technology to the digital asset sector, though commercialization timing remains undetermined.

Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok shifted from his previously hardline stance on digital asset taxation during a National Assembly hearing, emphasizing efforts to broadly gather opinions.

This reflects the government's intent to listen to lawmakers and industry views before formulating taxation plans at a time when tax revenue scale remains uncertain. Users interpret this government attitude shift as softening taxation stances, but whether it actually translates into policy remains unclear.