Despite headwinds like the sharp fall of Samsung Electronics and regulations on leverage deposits, KOSDAQ has room to rise to 920-930p, but a strong correction is expected thereafter.
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Samsung Electronics' stock price plummeted by nearly 8%, with SK Hynix also falling. This had a negative impact on the overall domestic stock market, particularly affecting the KOSDAQ index.
Analysis suggests that if these large semiconductor stocks had remained stable, the KOSDAQ index could have risen by 4-5%.
The short-term target for the KOSDAQ index has been set at 920 to 930 points. Analysis suggests that the simultaneous rise of three sectors—secondary batteries, bio, and materials/parts/equipment—is essential to reach this target.
Investors holding KOSDAQ leverage products can expect an additional upside of about 32-34%.
Investors hoping to make additional purchases of KOSDAQ leveraged ETFs are facing difficulties due to deposit regulations. An additional 30 million won deposit is required to purchase leveraged ETFs because the relevant regulations have changed.
This creates limitations on fund management for investors already incurring losses, weakening the circulation of funds into leveraged products.
Analysis suggests that it is currently difficult to expect a trend-following rise in the bio sector. The bio sector is projected to begin a full-fledged trend-following rise around October to November.
Until then, movements in the bio sector should be viewed and acted upon merely as technical rebounds. Positive news from Hanmi Pharmaceutical has also suggested the possibility of a new market leader.
Currently, no single sector, such as bio, semiconductors, secondary batteries, or power infrastructure, has emerged as a clear leading sector in the domestic stock market. This absence of a dominant sector exacerbates confusion among market participants.
Investors are in a situation where it is difficult to predict which sector will lead the next market.
The recent rise in the secondary battery sector is analyzed as a factor of supply-demand improvement and a short squeeze due to 'empty houses' rather than fundamental issues. In other words, secondary batteries, which had risen relatively less while other sectors had already climbed, are belatedly 'aligning' themselves.
This phenomenon occurred as funds flowed into secondary batteries, which were undervalued compared to sectors that had already shown an upward trend, such as semiconductors and bio.
Sector alignment is expected to largely conclude from this Friday through next Monday. Afterward, the domestic stock market is projected to follow one of two scenarios.
The first is to conclude that the overall bull market has ended and enter a correction phase starting next week; the second is for a new leading sector to emerge, continuing the upward trend.
Market participants need to re-evaluate their strategies as the alignment is completed.
The final short-term target for the KOSDAQ index has been set at 920 to 930 points. While there may be additional upside after reaching this level, a correction phase is expected to begin thereafter.
This correction, driven by short-selling pressure, could pull the index down to the early 800s and will be a period of preparation for a trend-following rise around late October to November.
Significant market volatility is expected if hawkish remarks by Kevin Warsh emerge from the Jackson Hole meeting scheduled for later this week. Rising interest rates would negatively impact the overall stock market, but especially the bio sector.
A decline in major bio stocks like Alteogen could lead to a sector-wide downturn, so investors are advised to exercise caution.
Analysis suggests that the 'alignment' rise of the secondary battery sector is essential for the KOSDAQ index to reach the 60-day moving average, which is 860-870 points.
While NVIDIA's role was mentioned as important for leading this upward trend, it is projected that NVIDIA's stock price entering a consolidation phase rather than a rapid surge would be more favorable for the domestic semiconductor value chain.
A stable trend for NVIDIA is interpreted as being able to lead the simultaneous rise of domestic semiconductor-related stocks.
Goldman Sachs has released a report on the Korean semiconductor value chain, 'Korea Tech Supply Chain Overview,' which identifies stocks that will benefit from semiconductor expansion.
Equipment stocks mentioned include Jusung Engineering, Wonik IPS, Techwing, and HPSP, while substrate and CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) related stocks include Doosan, Isu Petasys, and Daeduck Electronics.
The semiconductor materials/parts/equipment sector has already shown a significant recovery, rising about 38% since late July. In contrast, leading secondary battery stocks (EcoPro BM) and leading bio stocks (DND Pharmatech) have only rebounded by 20-23%.
Accordingly, it is expected that the bio and secondary battery sectors will see additional 'alignment' rebounds of 30-38% by mid-to-late this week.
This sector rotation is interpreted as a common phenomenon during technical rebound phases.
The bio and secondary battery sectors are expected to show an additional rise of at least 30% by Wednesday or Thursday of this week. During this period, a short-term trading strategy of buying and holding for 3-5 days is considered effective.
Afterward, it was recommended to sell the bio and secondary battery stocks that have risen and switch to the semiconductor sector.
Funds that should be flowing into the stock market are currently moving to the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, thereby hindering the rise of the stock market. This is due to changing investment fund flows as interest in the crypto market grows.
This means that if the crypto market enters a correction phase, the stock market may rise, but conversely, if crypto resumes its upward trend, the stock market may decline.
It is necessary to recognize the inverse relationship between the stock market and the crypto market and formulate investment strategies accordingly.
A warning has been issued that a strong correction could hit the stock market between September and October. This is particularly likely to be triggered by external factors such as geopolitical risks originating from Europe.
Therefore, while August is expected to conclude without a major correction, analysis suggests that investors should prepare for a maximum impact market in the second half of the year.
A year-end rally is projected to begin in November, with this upward trend expected to form a historical high for the domestic stock market between January and March 2027. This period is seen as a critical inflection point.
Therefore, a strategy of selling all held stocks when the high point is reached in early 2027 was suggested.
This is interpreted as a strategy for reading the broader market trend and timing investments from a long-term perspective.
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