Semiconductor Rally Continues Amidst Soaring Interest Rates

Last week, all four major U.S. indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.3%, the S&P 500 1.3%, and the Nasdaq surging 3.2%.

Conversely, long-term bonds adjusted by 2.4%, and WTI crude oil futures dropped from $99.5 to $92.4 due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums.

AMD achieved a market capitalization of $1 trillion for the first time, and the AI rally is spreading beyond GPUs to various other fields.

Meta's stock surged 12.9% after topping the U.S. App Store, and Lam Research also rose 9.4%, demonstrating robust demand for semiconductor equipment.

Following these trends, the information technology sector jumped 3.4%, but the utility sector adjusted by 3.3%, showing mixed fortunes across sectors.

As AI-related stocks have risen sharply recently, short-term correction theories have emerged in the market. SOXS (semiconductor inverse) attracted 223.7 billion won, ranking first in overall net purchases, and SGV, a short-term bond ETF, also ranked third, indicating investor caution. Investors who took profits mostly sold Intel. However, experts point out that inverse products tend to trend downwards in the long term, making it difficult to achieve short-term profits.

Additionally, the short-term bond ETF (SGV) ranked third in net purchases, reflecting investor sentiment preparing for a potential stock market correction, while Intel topped sales for profit-taking after its sharp rise. Experts note that inverse products tend to trend downwards in the long term, making short-term profit realization difficult.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.2% this week and remains high at 5.17%.

This led to declines in high-dividend and value stocks like Realty Income and NextEra Energy, and housing affordability significantly deteriorated as mortgage rates surpassed 7%. This contraction in real estate transactions is feared to lead to a slowdown in related consumption, such as in furniture and construction.

This is based on the belief that AI investment will contribute more strongly to the real economy than the energy shock. During the same period, growth forecasts for Europe, China, and Japan were downgraded.

Meta's AI agent 'Muse', currently under development, can understand consumer needs and automatically make reservations or handle subscription cancellations.

The emergence of such AI agents has had an immediate impact on specific company stocks, such as Planet Fitness's stock dropping 13% weekly due to the ability to cancel unnecessary subscriptions. Furthermore, AI is expected to increase price transparency, enhancing the competitiveness of low-margin, high-efficiency retail companies like Costco.

The two countries agreed to temporarily suspend the tariff war and cooperate on AI technology development, but differences still exist regarding AI control.

China maintained its existing stance on the Taiwan issue, and the tariff exemption measures, expected to be announced on the 28th, will likely include agricultural products, medical devices, and energy products.

Google has strengths in its AI chips but needs external cooperation in satellites and launch vehicles. SpaceX possesses launch vehicles and communication infrastructure but lacks its own chips, anticipating a long-term competition for leadership in the space data center ecosystem between the two companies.

Next Tuesday, Carnival's earnings report and OpenAI's 'DevDay' are scheduled. On Wednesday, Micron's earnings report will provide insights into the potential for further gains in the semiconductor sector.

The unemployment rate will be released on Friday, and these inflation and employment indicators can simultaneously affect tech stocks and interest rate expectations, drawing significant market attention.