North Korea: Flood Washes Away Hwanghae Military Base; Writer Kim Joo-sung Criticizes Disaster Concealment and Rising Defections

According to NK News, analysis of satellite imagery from the satellite company Planet Labs confirmed that at least 380 houses in Danchun were completely destroyed by the flood. The houses are near the military base in Singgye County, and because no advance evacuation notice was given, thousands of displaced people are presumed to have resulted.

Singgye-Goksan in particular is famous for its deep mountains, and as the name, which combines Singgye County and Goksan County, suggests, it boasts rugged mountainous terrain. Transportation infrastructure in the area is poorly developed, making access very difficult.

The 2nd Corps is a key unit responsible for the area roughly at the center of the current border line, the Hanpal Line, including Kaesong. Many fire-power units are deployed here, and writer Kim Joo-sung explained that a special unit once known as a nuclear backpack unit was also stationed here. Because of this military importance, the flood damage is drawing particular attention.

As the mountains lost nearly all their trees, soil could no longer absorb rain, and water ran straight off, leaving the land highly vulnerable to flooding. Kim Joo-sung pointed out that this indiscriminate tree felling is the fundamental cause that has aggravated the recent flood damage.

They regard natural disasters as a sign of their weakness and are reluctant to report them to the outside world. Kim Joo-sung said that because the North conceals such information, it is difficult to accurately grasp the actual extent of the damage. He estimated that residents of the affected areas, already suffering from poor living conditions and food shortages, likely faced significant loss of life from this flood.

Recently, a North Korean soldier crossed the military demarcation line in Jeongseon, central Gangwon Province, and defected to the South. Since a similar defection occurred in the same region last year, this can be read as a sign of low morale and weakened discipline among front-line North Korean soldiers. Kim Joo-sung added that many soldiers have crossed the truce line to defect for a long time, and that recently there are also quite a few soldiers and civilians who cross without becoming known.

Because the mines previously laid there must be removed to build roads, the number of routes for escape has increased accordingly. As a result, contrary to Kim Jong-un's intent, the improvement of border infrastructure is paradoxically encouraging attempts to defect.

Under Kim Jong-un, the regime has strictly curbed the presence of defectors. When some defector groups raised North Korean human rights issues in the National Assembly and on the international stage, Kim Jong-un saw this as a problem he could not ignore. To block defections, he turned the China-North Korea border region into open ground, cleared trees, and took measures to demolish private houses. Despite these efforts, attempts to defect have not stopped.

Changes in defection routes have led to an increase in attempts to defect by sea. Kim Joo-sung noted that quite a few defectors came across the East Sea in 2024 and stressed that defecting by sea is far more dangerous than by land. This appears to be the result of land routes becoming harder, prompting people to seek new and more dangerous routes.

Because they encounter the reality of South Korea through South Korean dramas and other media, they have a strong tendency to want to come to the South. Kim Joo-sung explained that the existence of defectors and their stories are already widely known, making it difficult for the North Korean authorities to stop this desire to defect.

Military life in North Korea is extremely harsh, but because conscription is compulsory, men must go to the military without exception. Kim Joo-sung explained that the main reason young North Koreans enlist is less patriotism of 'wanting to defend the country' than the need to solve livelihood problems. Staying at home only burdens their parents, so many enlist with the thinking that at least clothing is taken care of there and one less mouth needs feeding in the family.

Such cultural contact can foster a sense of camaraderie among soldiers and become an occasion for changing their perception of the outside world.

Kim Joo-sung analyzed that this claim by Kim Jong-un could in fact act as an outlet that leads to defections. He argued that the change in the concept of the border and the softened atmosphere could encourage residents to attempt to defect.

This is because Kim Yo-jong has begun activities with an official title within the party, strengthening her standing. He sees Kim Yo-jong as playing the role of the closest and most trusted aide to Kim Jong-un, his younger sister.

Kim Jong-il had two daughters, Kim Sol-song and Kim Chun-song, with his first wife Kim Yong-suk, and later had Kim Jong-nam with actress Sung Hae-rim. But that was not the end: the children he had with Ko Yong-hui, a Japanese-born dancer and concubine, were Kim Jong-un and Kim Yo-jong. It is said that they once had to live in hiding in Wonsan.

Kim Joo-sung explained that this formed a fairly deep bond between Jo Yong-won and the Kim siblings. He said this past connection may have influenced Jo Yong-won's current return and Kim Yo-jong's strengthened power.

Jo Yong-won was once demoted to the Supreme People's Assembly, a post North Koreans call the 'upper house' where officials who are essentially irrelevant are sent. At the time, it was interpreted that he was pushed aside as Kim Yo-jong launched her large-scale activities. However, Kim Joo-sung analyzed that Jo Yong-won's return to the Workers' Party Organization and Guidance Department to take on a role was likely aimed at covering up missteps or dark spots of Kim Yo-jong. In other words, the presumption is that Jo returned to take charge of the problems that could arise from Kim Yo-jong's power moves.