Signs of Party-Government Separation, Accelerating Decline in Approval Ratings

Public opinion polls have confirmed a phenomenon where party approval ratings and the President's approval rating move independently, known as 'party-government decoupling'. This indicates that signs of party-government separation are already being captured in the data. Spokesperson Kim Hyo-eun stated, "The fact that signs of party-government separation are already showing up in public opinion polls means that Democratic Party lawmakers, especially Chairman Kim Min-seok, will inevitably use many terms referring to party-government separation," suggesting an increased likelihood of stronger demands for party-government separation within the Democratic Party in the future.

The President's approval rating continues to decline, and the gap with the party's approval rating is widening. In particular, public reaction to cash handout policies has been lukewarm, which Spokesperson Kim Hyo-eun interprets as a secondary sign of a lame duck period. Spokesperson Kim stated, "I believe it's already showing secondary signs, even lame duck signs. Even when they propose populist cash handout policies, the public's reaction is cool."

Regional differences in public opinion are also widening. In Seoul, the People Power Party recorded 49.5% and the Democratic Party 29.5%, showing a significant difference of over 20 percentage points. In the Chungcheong region, the People Power Party also showed strength, occupying over half with 50.6%. In contrast, the gap between the two parties in Gyeonggi and Incheon narrowed to 6 percentage points. Spokesperson Kim Hyo-eun commented, "Seoul and Chungcheong are very serious right now. If the People Power Party in Seoul is 49.5% and the Democratic Party is 29.5%, that's a difference of over 20%."

An analysis of generational support shows 'generational encirclement', with the People Power Party holding an advantage across all age groups except for some in their 40s to 60s. In particular, the People Power Party recorded an overwhelming 50.2% support among those in their 30s. Spokesperson Kim Hyo-eun stated, "The generational encirclement theory is clearly evident. For those in their 30s, the People Power Party has an overwhelming advantage of 21.7% and took 50.2% of the support," explaining that this even raises the possibility of the People Power Party governing for 20 years.

Public opinion regarding the appointment of candidate Yong Hye-in shows even her supporters turning away. The total opposition rate reached 72.2%, with only 16.6% in favor. Even within the President's support base, opposition to the appointment was higher, with particularly high opposition rates among young people (30s), women, and in the Honam region. Spokesperson Kim Hyo-eun pointed out, "I don't think I've ever seen a candidate with overwhelmingly high opposition even among their own supporters. It means that there aren't many people who would overlook the appointment of Yong Hye-in just because they support the President, or rather, approve of it."

The results of public opinion polls released immediately after the cabinet reshuffle are interpreted as a report card on the President's cabinet reshuffle, largely assessed as a 'defeat'. 36% of those with a negative assessment of the President were centrist or Democratic Party supporters. In particular, there was high critical public opinion regarding candidate Kim Seung-won and candidate Yong Hye-in, who were part of the reshuffle. Spokesperson Kim Hyo-eun stated, "This interpretation from the recent Pan & poll can be summarized in one word: it's the President's report card on the cabinet reshuffle. It's a defeat."

Questions have also been raised regarding the selection criteria for cabinet reshuffle candidates. The case of Won Min-kyung's replacement was specifically mentioned, pointing out that she was replaced without any particular fault, despite having support within her camp as a women's rights lawyer. Spokesperson Kim Hyo-eun criticized, "Candidate Won Min-kyung became a minister after Kang Seon-woo dropped out before. She is a lawyer in the field of women's rights. The real problem is that she was dismissed despite not having done anything particularly wrong, and only a token candidate was appointed."

Public opposition to Kim Seung-won's appointment recorded 60.6%, with only 28% in favor. Notably, 24.7% of Democratic Party supporters also expressed opposition to the appointment. Allegations of involvement with stock manipulation forces, such as the KH Group, were raised, and the possibility of personal issues being included in the personnel verification list was also mentioned. Spokesperson Kim Hyo-eun stated, "Regarding candidate Kim Seung-won's appointment, opposition was 60.6% and approval was 28%. Looking closely at the data, 24.7% of Democratic Party supporters also opposed the appointment, so it seems there is some opposition even among Democratic Party lawmakers."

If appointments are pushed through despite such opposition, the President's approval rating is likely to fall to the 20% range. This decline is expected to trigger a full-scale 'distancing' by potential presidential candidates and officials within the Democratic Party. This would lead to overt criticism of the Lee Jae-myung administration from Democratic Party officials, which could lead to a scenario where Lee Jae-myung's trial resumes. Spokesperson Kim Hyo-eun predicted, "Naturally, the approval rating will probably fall to the 20% range. If the approval rating drops to the 20% range, and the Democratic Party begins a full-scale distancing, from horizontal party-government relations to overt criticism of the Lee Jae-myung administration from Democratic Party officials, then our party can push for the trial to resume."

Regarding Senior Secretary Hong Ik-pyo's mention of an opportunity for the President to explain directly, there is speculation that those around the President may have advised him to declare that he will not seek re-election. This advice could be a strategy to reverse approval ratings by having the President appear before the public and declare that there will be no re-election. Spokesperson Kim Hyo-eun stated, "I wonder if there was advice within the Democratic Party or even the Blue House saying, 'You must now declare that there will be no re-election.' 'Please come out in front of the public quickly and declare that there will be no re-election. If you do that, I think the approval rating will go up.'" This can be seen as a meaningful remark given the current lack of critical voices around the President. A declaration by the President of no re-election could serve as a crucial card to reverse approval ratings.