The UAE's Visit to Korea and Shifts in Middle East Politics: An Analysis of the Economic Fallout from the Russia-Ukraine War

In the early stages of the Ukraine war, Russia recruited volunteer soldiers with high pay. It lured troops with about twice the average Russian worker's salary, but the situation has changed sharply since then. Professor Kim Jeong-ho said, "They recruited soldiers by paying twice the average Russian worker's wage. But with 1.4 million people wounded or dead, who would volunteer now? Recruiting soldiers has become extremely difficult." He described the difficulty of military recruitment. With volunteer enlistment plunging due to massive casualties, the Russian military has run into serious trouble replenishing its ranks.

Russia's severe manpower shortage is a major factor raising the likelihood of North Korean troop deployment. Russia has already used North Korean soldiers before. Professor Kim said, "That 13,000 North Korean soldiers went to Russia and fought, and now their numbers have dropped significantly. Either way, Russia has to find soldiers." His remarks suggest Russia is desperate enough to ask North Korea for help. This also indicates that Russia finds it hard to sustain the war with its domestic forces alone.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is caught in a political dilemma that forces him to keep fighting. Professor Kim said, "If he forces conscription, it will very likely become politically very difficult. Yet he cannot stop the war either, and if he stops it, Putin will very likely lose his power." Forced conscription could provoke domestic backlash, while halting the war could shake the foundations of Putin's power, so neither choice is easy.

The Russian economy faces a serious crisis due to Western sanctions and the prolonged war. Although GDP growth may appear positive, analysts say this mostly depends on military production. Professor Kim said, "Weapons are being produced in Russia, and that makes up GDP. But what do Russian citizens use those weapons for? They just throw them away on the battlefield. In effect, the economy has already entered negative territory." In other words, because the weapons produced do not contribute to citizens' consumption or welfare and vanish as war consumables, their real economic value is negative. This is expected to become a heavy long-term burden on the Russian economy.

Western countries and economists predicted that Russia's economy would soon collapse, but that did not happen. China and India played a decisive role in this failure of prediction. Professor Kim pointed out, "What differed between the collapse that Western economists and policymakers expected and the situation that actually emerged? It is precisely that they excluded factors like China and India." China and India kept importing Russian energy and continued trade, becoming a pillar that let the Russian economy withstand Western sanctions. This is another reminder of how important geopolitical factors are in international economic forecasting.

As a result, China and India were able to cut energy costs and secure an economic advantage.

Ukraine is hitting key facilities in Russia's rear as well as on the front lines, dealing damage to the Russian economy. In particular, it is targeting Russian oil refineries and the tankers secretly carrying petroleum products. Professor Kim noted, "Ukraine is striking Russia's rear. It is attacking Russian refineries and the so-called shadow fleet of tankers that secretly ship Russian oil products to places like China and India." Such rear-area attacks are paralyzing Russia's oil production and transport systems and causing logistics disruption at home, which could become a long-term drag on the Russian economy. Instability in the energy supply chain is also expected to directly affect the daily lives of Russian citizens.