Trump Orders Cancellation of US-ROK Combined Drills… Infuriated by Unfulfilled Investment Promise to US

During the US-ROK combined military exercise 'CP Tango,' which began on August 17, troops suddenly withdrew. This mid-exercise withdrawal was unusual and was understood to be based on an instruction issued from Washington D.C. However, the troops returned just one day after their withdrawal, creating an unexpected incident.

It has been confirmed that the order to halt the US-ROK combined exercise was directly issued by U.S. President Donald Trump. The U.S. President is the only person who can issue direct orders to the Commander of US Forces Korea and Commander of the United Nations Command, and the U.S. Secretary of Defense was excluded from this process. U.S. media also reported on the evidence of the President's direct order, lending weight to these suspicions.

Commander Bronson abruptly halted a memorial service underway at Camp Bonifas and moved to Yongsan. In a question-and-answer session with reporters, he revealed that an order had been conveyed for the de facto cancellation of the US-ROK combined exercise 'Freedom Shield,' meaning no outdoor maneuver training. This was a unilateral notification from the U.S. side, carried out without prior consultation with South Korea.

President Donald Trump expressed strong dissatisfaction with South Korea's refusal to cooperate in the war with Iran. He directly criticized Korea's uncooperative attitude, stating, "Lee Jae-myung and I had a conversation, we don't need that much help in Iran, but can you help us?" He also mentioned the size of the U.S. military, pointing out that South Korea was not fulfilling its due role.

It is reported that President Trump became very angry when Chairman Lee Jae-myung repeatedly refused his request, saying, "I'm sorry, but no." These details became public when the phone call content was released to White House correspondents.

This is seen as an instance where President Trump publicly revealed his diplomatic dissatisfaction with South Korea. He implied that South Korea's attitude could negatively affect its relationship with the U.S.

Politico, a U.S. political news outlet, criticized South Korea, referring to it as the 'Slowest Negotiator.' This criticism, coming from a publication widely referenced by the U.S. Congress and opinion leaders, points to delays in the South Korean government's execution of investments in the U.S. as a primary reason. Such criticism indicates that the current of conflict between South Korea and the U.S. is spreading within American political circles.

It has been revealed that not a single dollar of the $20 billion in investment agreed upon by South Korea in the JFS (Joint Fact Sheet), signed on November 13 last year, has been deposited for 10 months. Although this fund was agreed upon for a 10-year installment plan, the delay in fulfilling the promise has caused dissatisfaction on the U.S. side.

The U.S. has taken a firm stance on the South Korean government's delay in executing the investment, stating, "We will judge only by the numbers. It's been ten months, and not a single dollar has been deposited." This contrasts with other countries like Taiwan and Japan, which are promptly executing their investments in the U.S.

The significantly slow pace of South Korea's investment execution is negatively impacting its economic cooperation with the U.S., raising concerns that it could lead to issues of trust between the two nations.

Amid concerns about deteriorating US-ROK relations, the possibility of independent nuclear submarine development has been hinted at. However, this is realistically impossible without revising the US-ROK Civilian Nuclear Cooperation Agreement. There are concerns that a unilateral announcement without coordination with the U.S. could further deepen the stagnation of relations between the two countries.

The Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise, originally scheduled from August 17 to 27, has been decided to conclude early on August 21. Along with this, the crucial counterattack drills, which were a key part of the exercise, have been canceled, effectively nullifying the second half of the training.

This decision means that only Part 1 of the exercise, designed for defense against North Korean aggression, will be conducted, with no full-scale counterattack operation drills. This is seen as a significant reduction in the purpose and scale of the exercise.

The early termination of the UFS exercise and the cancellation of counterattack drills raise concerns about a weakening US-ROK combined defense posture and suggest a potential gap in readiness against possible North Korean provocations.

It has been confirmed that Minister of Justice Jeong Seong-ho, a pro-Lee Jae-myung figure who had previously maintained his stance to 'defend until the end,' submitted his resignation to the Presidential Office and the Ministry of Personnel Management. His resignation is reportedly due to a combination of deteriorating health and a sense of self-reproach stemming from frustration during the process of responding to the 'complete deprivation of prosecutorial investigative powers' (Geomsuwanbak).

Minister Jeong's sudden resignation has caused considerable ripple effects within the ruling party. As a key figure who had led the current government's core legal policies steps down, attention is now focused on whether there will be changes in the direction of future prosecutorial reform and judicial policy.

This resignation can be interpreted as reflecting not only personal difficulties but also internal conflicts experienced during the implementation of major government policies.

A scenario has emerged suggesting a change in the Minister of Justice to resolve Chairman Lee Jae-myung's legal risks. This involves appointing someone to replace Minister Jeong Seong-ho, with the argument that "besides Jeong Seong-ho, they need to appoint a Minister of Justice who is truly obedient, whose role is exactly one thing: since 'Geomsuwanbak' (complete deprivation of prosecutorial investigative powers) has already been done, they just need someone who will do as they are told regarding withdrawal of prosecution or dismissal of charges."

It is speculated that there is an intention to appoint a suitable person to handle the withdrawal of prosecution and dismissal of charges to resolve Chairman Lee Jae-myung's legal issues. This raises concerns that the role of the Minister of Justice could be focused on resolving the legal risks of a specific individual.

Such a scenario could provoke controversy within political circles regarding the potential undermining of the neutrality and independence of the Minister of Justice. Attention is now focused on how future appointments of the Minister of Justice will be connected to Chairman Lee Jae-myung's legal risks.

Based on reports from Politico, an analysis suggests that former U.S. President Donald Trump has an intention to pressure South Korea. This situation raises concerns such as, "Has our Republic of Korea fallen out of favor with U.S. President Trump?" and leads to warnings about a potential crack in the US-ROK alliance.

This is perceived as a serious issue, even raising the possibility of the Republic of Korea facing diplomatic isolation. A crack in the US-ROK alliance could significantly impact the security environment in Northeast Asia, requiring careful response from the government.

The decision to end the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise early on August 21, originally scheduled from the 17th to the 27th, is interpreted as a very significant diplomatic signal. Recalling the loss of deterrence from past Team Spirit exercises, the importance of the diplomatic meaning of this early termination is emphasized.

The UFS exercise is an important combined exercise to prepare for contingencies on the Korean Peninsula. Reducing its schedule and terminating it early could indicate a change in U.S. policy toward the Korean Peninsula or an unusual sign in US-ROK relations. This decision is not merely a schedule adjustment for training but is received as a significant message regarding the trust and alliance relationship between the two countries.

Experts are closely monitoring the impact of this measure on the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, as well as its influence on the overall power dynamics in Northeast Asia.

An analysis suggests that former President Trump's approach to North Korea is intended as a domestic political maneuver to shift the situation. This perspective is revealed in the remark, "At that time, President Trump also has to do domestic politics. I think that is, in a way, for domestic politics, and I think there is a need to shift the situation."

Furthermore, a direct US-DPRK dialogue system that excludes South Korea is a cause for concern. Dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea that bypasses South Korea could signify a reduced role for South Korea in resolving issues on the Korean Peninsula, which critics argue could weaken South Korea's diplomatic standing.

Criticism has been raised regarding Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to South Korea at a crucial time during the US-ROK combined exercise, UFS. Since the UFS drills simulate actual wartime scenarios, the opinion is that "the intention is good, but the timing is inappropriate."

It is pointed out that the visit of China's foreign minister, a country that once threatened South Korea with 'human wave attacks,' during the exercise period is symbolically inappropriate for South Korea's security. While the intention for peaceful problem-solving is good, overlapping with the core US-ROK alliance training period is criticized as a failure to consider diplomatic sensitivities.

After the Democratic Party's national convention, intra-party factional conflicts are intensifying, leading to predictions of a party split. The remark, "Looking at the history of the Democratic Party, there is a high possibility of a split, and from outside, it is expected that a Honam party will definitely emerge," suggests the possibility of a new party based in the Honam region.

It is projected that victory in the upcoming general election will be a crucial variable determining the Democratic Party's future power. Intra-party conflicts and the emergence of new political forces are expected to bring about significant changes in the Korean political landscape.

Chairman Lee Jae-myung's emergency dinner meeting, convened just two days after the end of the primary, is analyzed as a politically calculated move reflecting a sense of crisis within the party. From the question, "Who would he have said to, 'I urgently called you two days later and said that I did it for the good of our Democratic Party and for the success of our national administration, so please understand?'", it appears to be a gesture for party unity.

Such a dinner is also described as a unifying move akin to "slapping someone and then giving them bread." It is interpreted as an attempt to appease non-mainstream factions within the party and foster solidarity.

Furthermore, the rumor of Rep. Jeong Cheong-rae's appointment to a cabinet position is analyzed as a form of noise marketing. This view suggests it could be part of a strategy to shift the party atmosphere and attract supporters' attention.