Lee Jae-myung administration's approval rating has fallen to the 30% range, exacerbating the 'alligator mouth' phenomenon, and the Democratic Party is pushing for the expulsion of Rep. Lee Jin-sook amid criticism of ignoring parliamentary law.
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The Lee Jae-myung administration's national approval rating has fallen to 36.3%. This figure is significantly lower than the approval rating during the presidential election. In particular, the approval rating in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region was in the 20% range, and even in the Honam region, a traditional support base of the Democratic Party, it plummeted by 16%p, barely maintaining the 50% range.
Negative evaluations of the Lee Jae-myung administration rose to 60.9%, widening the gap with positive evaluations. This is the so-called 'alligator mouth' phenomenon, where negative evaluations overwhelm positive ones, and the gap is expected to widen further.
That 60.9 will make the upper jaw rise and the lower jaw open, and that gap will only widen further from now on.
In political analysis, the '35-55 rule' states that if the approval rating one year before a presidential election is below 35% positive and above 55% negative, a change of government occurs. Currently, the Lee Jae-myung administration's negative evaluation is 60.9%, already meeting this condition for a change.
The approval rating in the Honam region (South Jeolla, Gwangju, North Jeolla), a traditional stronghold of the Democratic Party, plummeted to 52%. This is a drop of more than 30%p compared to the nearly 90% approval rating during past presidential elections. It is reported that the Democratic Party internally views this drop in Honam's approval rating as serious.
The Lee Jae-myung administration's approval rating simultaneously fell in the Seoul metropolitan area (Seoul, Gyeonggi, Incheon) and Chungcheong region. Common reasons for this decline in these areas include the housing and jeonse (long-term deposit lease) crisis, along with the economic difficulties faced by citizens due to rising living costs. These factors are acting as major causes for the departure of core supporters.
The decline in approval ratings among the 40s and 50s generations, especially the 50s, who are considered core supporters of the Lee Jae-myung administration, is prominent. The approval rating for those in their 50s has dropped by about 20%p compared to the past. The 40s and 50s generations have been a key support base, backing the Lee Jae-myung administration with approval ratings in the 70s.
Regarding Chairman Lee Jae-myung's remarks on constitutional reform, 56.7% of the public predominantly view his true intention as 'resolving legal risks.' In contrast, 35.6% believe 'Lee Jae-myung's re-election is necessary,' a figure similar to Chairman Lee Jae-myung's approval rating. This shows that the approval rate for Chairman Lee Jae-myung's core policies is solidifying around 36%.
During the recent Democratic Party national convention, Rep. Jeong Cheong-rae's side expressed concerns about the departure of core supporters, mentioning 'core탈'. Writer Yoo Si-min likened the departure of core supporters to a party 'losing muscle,' diagnosing that just as a person is in danger when losing muscle, a party can also face a crisis.
Writer Yoo Si-min sharply criticized Chairman Lee Jae-myung within the Democratic Party. He likened Chairman Lee Jae-myung's demeanor over the past year to an 'arrogant power holder,' even using strong terms like 'monarchy' and 'imperial rule.' The term 'monarchy' can be interpreted to mean that Chairman Lee Jae-myung is acting like a tyrant.
Writer Yoo Si-min called Chairman Lee Jae-myung an 'arrogant power holder' and used the blunt expression 'gone bad' to describe the Lee Jae-myung system. This indicates that critical views of Chairman Lee Jae-myung are spreading within the Democratic Party.
Rep. Park Hong-geun of the Democratic Party reacted against Writer Yoo Si-min's strong criticism. Rep. Park Hong-geun pointed out, 'Should we spit into the well we dug together?' expressing concern that Writer Yoo Si-min's remarks could harm the unity of the Democratic Party.
Jang Dong-hyuk, a supreme council member of the People Power Party, mentioned the case of former President Roh Moo-hyun during his meeting with Rep. Kim Min-seok. It appears he launched an attack by reminding Rep. Kim Min-seok of past controversies related to former President Roh Moo-hyun. This is interpreted as a political pressure tactic, bringing up a past that Rep. Kim Min-seok would least want to hear.
Writer Yoo Si-min claimed to have confirmed that the non-Lee Jae-myung faction within the Democratic Party has 46% support. He also emphasized the presence of the non-Lee Jae-myung faction in the party, mentioning that three out of five elected supreme council members in the last election were classified as non-Lee Jae-myung figures. This suggests that despite the appearance of the Democratic Party being dominated by the pro-Lee Jae-myung faction, there is a significant force within the party that voices dissent against Chairman Lee Jae-myung.
Analysis suggests that the Democratic Party's strong attack on Rep. Lee Jin-sook is motivated by the alienation of Honam public sentiment due to Chairman Lee Jae-myung's failure to implement his 800 trillion won investment pledge for Honam. Chairman Lee Jae-myung confirmed the 800 trillion won investment pledge the day before the Honam delegate vote began, but its non-implementation has severely shaken Honam public sentiment.
Since the Kim Min-seok system, the Democratic Party has maintained a hardline stance, including demanding the resignation of Supreme Court Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae. This hardline approach is interpreted as a strategy to solidify internal party unity and project a strong image externally.
In this situation, the Democratic Party appears to be using Rep. Lee Jin-sook as a scapegoat to win back Honam public sentiment and simultaneously cover up issues of mismanagement, such as the semiconductor cluster. The strong attack on Rep. Lee Jin-sook is being used as a quick fix by the Democratic Party to rally Honam public sentiment and divert attention from internal problems.
The Democratic Party is pursuing the expulsion of Rep. Lee Jin-sook by referring her to the National Assembly Ethics Committee. However, the more substantial move appears to be their intention to pursue a disciplinary action that could suspend her duties as a National Assembly member for up to one year.
This disciplinary action is reportedly already signed by about 20 Democratic Party members before Rep. Kim Min-seok became chairman. Rep. Kim Min-seok is expected to strongly push this bill.
Currently, the Democratic Party and the pan-opposition bloc hold a majority of seats in the National Assembly, leading to predictions that the bill to suspend Rep. Lee Jin-sook's duties is likely to pass the plenary session.
If the bill to suspend Rep. Lee Jin-sook's duties for one year passes the National Assembly plenary session and is actually enforced, there is a forecast that Rep. Lee Jin-sook will rapidly emerge as a strong presidential candidate from that day on. This is interpreted in a similar context to the past case where former President Kim Young-sam significantly boosted his political stature after being expelled from the assembly during his time as a lawmaker.
The Democratic Party's attempt to discipline Rep. Lee Jin-sook essentially means the suspension of her duties, which is deeply related to Rep. Kim Min-seok's political intentions. Rep. Kim Min-seok appears to be employing a strategy to divert Honam public sentiment towards Rep. Lee Jin-sook's discipline, thereby shifting attention away from the Democratic Party's misgovernment issues, such as the difficult-to-maintain semiconductor cluster problem. It is understood that he intends to use Rep. Lee Jin-sook's discipline under the judgment that Honam public sentiment would be greatly agitated if they knew the truth.
Criticism has recently been raised regarding Rep. Kim Min-seok's excessive behavior. Actions such as 90-degree bows, proposals for dress code innovation, and assigning party positions to all members have been criticized as resembling the militarization of cadres. This is criticized as an example of the Democratic Party's closed organizational culture and excessive loyalty competition.
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