The recent sharp KOSDAQ rebound is a natural bounce after excessive decline, but the lack of volume needed to break the 850 resistance and of a clear leading stock is adding to market uncertainty.
Kim Min-su, CEO, explained that the unusual rally came because KOSDAQ had declined excessively in recent times.
"This is a sharp rebound. I haven't seen a rebound this sharp before, honestly. Because it had been falling so much lately." Kim Min-su added that rebounds this sharp have been rare in the past as well.
Kim Min-su diagnosed it as buying that came in naturally because the KOSDAQ index had fallen too far.
He said, "It shouldn't have fallen this far. It fell so much that buying simply came in. Who would have thought it was cheap enough to buy here? It's a strong natural rebound," suggesting that no particular player drove strong buying at the bottom.
Kim Min-su pointed out that past index declines were linked to systemic risks such as recessions or financial crises, whereas the recent KOSDAQ decline was mainly caused by a supply-demand imbalance tied to liquidity.
He explained, "For the index to be cut in half over three months, it isn't a systemic risk as we usually know it. It came out this way purely because of supply and demand, which didn't make sense," emphasizing that abnormal supply-demand factors caused the index to plunge.
Kim Min-su analyzed that the 850 level is acting as one of the key resistance zones.
He said, "The 850 level right now is one of the resistances. It's just come up against resistance. If it moves a bit higher, the second resistance zone is around 930 and 950," adding that even if 850 is broken, further resistance is expected in the 930 to 950 range.
Kim Min-su said, "Who bought so much at the bottom to make a profit? Almost no one. Most just held on and their losses shrank a bit," suggesting that most investors merely reduced their losses.
He also pointed out, "Looking at it now, not much was bought. Not much accumulation has happened with volume growing," explaining that strong buying or leading accumulation has not been observed across the market. This raises questions about the sustainability of the index gains.
Caution was advised about selling some of the stocks stuck in KOSPI and rotating into KOSDAQ. Anchor Yeo Hyun-gyu asked Kim Min-su about a strategy of selling part of the KOSPI holdings to trade KOSDAQ.
In response, Kim Min-su retorted, "Are you crazy? Who are you to make me cut my losses?" explaining that individual investors may strongly resist cutting losses on stocks they hold at a loss. This suggests that investors face a large psychological barrier.
Kim Min-su said, "If you're already stuck tight, it's more frustrating to do nothing. So at least cut 10%," viewing a small cut as a realistic step that can be taken without much burden.
He emphasized that using the funds freed by a 10% cut to pursue KOSDAQ opportunities, or building extra cash, could be a wiser strategy in today's uncertain market. Securing flexibility through partial cuts can also help improve investor sentiment.
Kim Min-su explained that since it rose sharply in a short period, a pullback was a natural occurrence.
He said, "Alteogen, the representative stock that pulled KOSDAQ up, rose 60%. A 60% rise from the low, and since it rose so much, it doesn't just keep going. It pulled back once. A pulling-back trend appears," suggesting that a correction after a sharp rally is an unavoidable process.
Kim Min-su assessed the current price level as an important resistance line.
He said, "This is resistance right now. It's resistance in the 320,000 to 330,000 won range, but people are saying it'll go straight to 400,000 won, so this is going to be a big deal. That came up just yesterday," emphasizing that while investors expect a breakout above the 320,000 to 330,000 won resistance could lead to 400,000 won, the stock is currently at the stage of confirming that resistance.
SCJ formulation is a technology that allows biologic drugs to be administered by subcutaneous injection rather than intravenous infusion, drawing strong interest in the pharmaceutical industry because it greatly improves patient convenience and can reduce medical costs. In particular, as big pharma seeks to secure the technology through external collaboration rather than developing it in-house, it is expected to have a positive impact on domestic biotech companies that hold the technology.
This change in market logic is increasing volatility that is hard for investors to predict, and Kim said, "This is why investors are getting angry. That's why they're upset," voicing investors' discontent. In a market environment that differs from the past, the need to seek new investment strategies is growing.
Kim Min-su explained, "There hasn't been any significant slowdown in the industry signals. What I looked at this time is that in the AI CAPEX area, big tech companies haven't said they'll cut investment or start conserving from here on."
This shows that investment in artificial intelligence continues even amid uncertainty across the semiconductor market, suggesting that demand in this specific technology area remains solid.
Kim Min-su explained, "Looking at the whole picture, simply put, price increases have ended. The price-led growth semiconductor prices drove is likely to slow in the second half," saying that price-driven growth will be difficult.
He added, "So as this slows, if Q recovers, P stalls and comes down, but since Q recovers, earnings should still hold up. But I don't know how much that will be, so uncertainty grows." In other words, the outlook is that a drop in prices will be offset by higher output to sustain earnings, but the size and timing of the output increase are hard to predict, which is the source of the uncertainty.
This uncertainty affects investor sentiment in semiconductor-related companies, making it hard for investors to find a clear direction.
He pointed out that when asked "What are the leading stocks?" in August, there isn't really any stock worth naming. Although Alteogen led the biotech sector, a true leader would need to surge at least 100% with volume, and no such stock exists right now. This is seen as reflecting weakened market-wide momentum and subdued investor sentiment.
Currently on KOSDAQ, neither robot-related stocks nor secondary battery stocks are effectively playing a leading role. Kim Min-su said, "Trading is dead. Is this a leader? It hasn't broken through the resistance even once. It's hard to call it a leader," pointing out that weak volume and failure to break resistance show a lack of leadership capacity.
On the secondary battery sector in particular, he said, "Secondary batteries are still far off. Ecopro has come back too, but it got stuck there and stopped," explaining that even representative stocks like Ecopro cannot sustain strong gains and hit resistance. This clearly shows that the market as a whole lacks a sector or stock capable of leading strong upward momentum.
He analyzed that because there is no follow-up buying from individual investors, foreign and institutional investors do not stay in a particular sector for long, instead selling and moving to other sectors in a rotation-driven market. Such short-term trading makes it hard for investors to find direction, and he voiced the difficulties of the current market, saying, "I think our investors are getting headaches."
Kim Min-su explained, "The specifics will come out around September or October, and it seems implementation is next year. The most important thing here is the guideline: buy what has earnings and sound fundamentals, and don't look at the bad ones."
The policy aims to raise market soundness by clearing out marginal companies based on their earnings and financial strength. Accordingly, the biotech sector may shrink, while most parts and materials companies are expected to be included among policy beneficiaries. Kim recalled that the parts and materials sector moved when a similar policy came out a few months ago, and expressed hope for a positive effect this time as well.
Kim Min-su advised, "Stop going back and forth on news or issues. Check it yourself. If your stock isn't included, you need a strategy. Maybe reduce it on a rebound and go a bit tighter," suggesting that accurate analysis of information and flexible response matter more than blind investing.
Kim Min-su said, "Don't get stuck. If you're stuck to this point, you've completely lost motivation. 'Don't get stuck' just means sell right away if it doesn't work, right?" advising a quick response once losses begin.
He added, "When you have profits, rather than continuing to trade on them, if the market doesn't look like it will extend into the next upswing, treat the remaining cash as precious too, trade back and forth, and soothe yourself and trade wisely." This suggests that the current market is less a trending uptrend and more a sequence of short rotations, so discarding excessive greed and responding flexibly is the wiser strategy.
In the end, he stressed that it is important for each investor to find their own method and respond wisely to the market.
Answers come from the transcript, with the exact spot cited.
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