US and Iran Drifting Apart on Nuclear Talks

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman met with UAE Vice President Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed in Riyadh, focusing on bilateral relations and regional developments. This meeting occurred as the diplomatic stalemate between the U.S. and Iran continued, with little sign of the two sides moving closer to resolving their conflict.

Chairman Seward also met with Saudi Defense Minister Halid bin Salman earlier in the week, indicating broader diplomatic activity within the region. Despite these diplomatic efforts, US-Iran tensions remain high with little progress in negotiations.

Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi observed that the parties are drifting further apart rather than moving toward a deal, primarily due to conflicting negotiation priorities. She stated, "So on one side you have Iran wanting to discuss the Strait of Hormuz first, and on the other side you have the US, which wants to discuss and agree on the nuclear issue first, so that that makes it challenging to see them coming to an agreement anytime soon."

Iran's oil exports have returned to near pre-war levels, which has altered the dynamics of leverage in the negotiations. The US is prioritizing concessions on Iran's nuclear program, while Iran insists on addressing the Strait of Hormuz issue first as a condition for further talks, making an imminent agreement unlikely given these sequencing differences.

A deal without significant concessions from both sides is deemed unfeasible, according to Bassiri Tabrizi. She emphasized, "Conversely, obviously Iran would come to any agreement only if there is some sort of security guarantee that we are not going to resume conflicts, that a war, in the middle of negotiation, even in the middle of an agreement being signed."

The US demand for zero nuclear enrichment and full compliance, stricter than the 2015 JCPOA, presents a significant barrier. Iran requires concrete security guarantees to prevent renewed conflicts or sudden hostilities during or after negotiations, as recent patterns of instability have heightened its skepticism regarding the sustainability of any signed agreement.

Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi does not exclude a return to open hostilities following the US midterm elections, as the current 'wait and see' approach is viewed as unsustainable. She warned, "I think there is also a growing risk of miscalculation from each side of unintended attacks, tit for tat that we have seen over the past 2 or 3 months, which could spiral out."

There is a high risk that tit-for-tat actions could spiral into unintended military escalation, regardless of specific election outcomes. Strategic calculations are expected to continue shaping the situation, intensifying the potential for conflict.