Yeom-bli on KOSPI breaking 20-day moving average: “Glad it held up without collapsing”

Yeom-bli announced that the Daegu lecture has been postponed to next year, and that a lecture will be held at the Gwangju Kim Dae-jung Convention Center in November of this year. He apologized to Daegu fans for the schedule change due to venue issues.

He said, “I’m truly sorry, but the Daegu lecture will be next year. It will be next year, and this November I changed it to Gwangju because of the venue. It will be held at the Gwangju Kim Dae-jung Convention Center, so I apologize for this change. I would like to express my sincere apologies to the people of Daegu.”

Yeom-bli assessed that the KOSPI index finally broke through the 20-day moving average, and the market held up without collapsing. He analyzed that it is a positive sign that the index is heading upwards with volatility completely reduced and trading volume dried up.

He mentioned, “Today, the KOSPI finally broke through the 20-day moving average. This is very fortunate. The market held up without collapsing, and volatility has completely decreased. As you can see, there is no trading. The market is dry, but the direction is upwards.”

Regarding Symtek's stock price plummeting by 9%, Yeom-bli stated that he did not know the reason. He mentioned the possibility of exercising conversion rights but raised doubts, stating that the amount of shares was small, at about 1% of the total, making it difficult to explain a 9% drop solely based on this.

He explained, “Why is Symtek falling today? Is something going on? I haven’t seen it. Why is it -9% again? It was doing well. Is it because of the conversion rights? It’s about 500,000 shares, which isn’t a lot. The proportion is only 1%. It can fall because of this, but falling by 9% because of this is a bit puzzling. There isn't really anything else.”

Yeom-bli emphasized that most of the recent doubts related to semiconductors have been revealed to be untrue. He stated that claims such as memory semiconductor peak-out and reduced US capital expenditure were proven false, and doubts about the profitability of long-term supply contracts have not yet been confirmed.

He predicted that while China's rise in semiconductors is a fact, it would take at least three more years for them to catch up with Korea, and there would be no increase in semiconductor supply due to expansion until next year. Therefore, he analyzed that the current pessimism about semiconductors is largely exaggerated.

Yeom-bli criticized SK Hynix's 'four-tier duplicate listing' as a wrong choice. He pointed out that the structure where SK Square was spun off from SK Telecom to control Hynix, and then its subsidiary Solidigm was separated and listed, could negatively impact shareholders. In particular, he worried that SK Hynix shareholders would not have the value of Solidigm properly recognized.

He said, “Remember Hynix's wrong choice? What is this? A four-tier duplicate listing? SK, SK Square, in fact, SK Square was also a company created to control Hynix after being spun off from SK Telecom. The appearance doesn't look good, honestly. Like this, like this, another holding company here, and Solidigm taken out below, and then listed. What about Hynix shareholders? They didn't see the value of Solidigm. This is the structure. This looks very strange, doesn't it? Why does it have to be like this? Isn't SK Hynix our national stock? It's a company with a market capitalization of over 1,000 trillion won, listed on the US market, but it's doing these kinds of actions that don't match it, which is regrettable. It's not decided yet, but I keep talking about it because it shouldn't be done this way. It shouldn't be done like this. The reason its stock price is weaker than Samsung Electronics lately is because of this,” analyzing that the current stock price weakness might be related to these governance issues.

Yeom-bli evaluated Oscotec positively and recommended maintaining the investment. He advised investors to focus on a company's business model rather than its financial analysis indicators when trading stocks.

He said, “I view Oscotec positively. Hold onto it. When trading stocks, look primarily at the company’s business model rather than corporate analysis indicators.”

Regarding the reform of monthly dividends for ISA accounts, Yeom-bli stated that the government's decision has not yet been announced. He advised against rushing to open new accounts until the reform is finalized, as it might be re-examined due to criticism from Financial Supervisory Service Governor Lee Bok-hyun.

He said, “The government is reforming monthly dividends in ISA accounts, but it hasn’t been decided yet. For now, continue as you were. Financial Supervisory Service Governor Lee Bok-hyun criticized it, so it will probably be reversed again. Don’t open new accounts yet. It hasn’t been clearly announced yet. I’ll let you know when it is.”

Yeom-bli countered the pessimistic view on the semiconductor industry, emphasizing the positive impact of AI's productivity enhancement. He diagnosed that the decline due to semiconductor supply and demand issues has already ended, and asserted that Sam Altman's mention of memory shortage was true. He added that AI increasing productivity is also a clear fact.

He predicted that if corporate profits increase due to the growth of AI data centers and expansion of AI services, investments will follow again, which will be good news for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. He advised looking only at the facts and not being swayed by others' words, expressing strong confidence in the future of the semiconductor industry.

Yeom-bli suggested selling POSCO DX and replacing it with Hyundai Motor or Samsung Electronics. He believed that divesting from POSCO DX alone and switching to other blue-chip stocks could be a better investment strategy.

He said, “Wouldn't it be better to sell POSCO DX and buy more Hyundai Motor or Samsung Electronics instead? I suggest selling only POSCO DX and replacing it.”

He named Samsung SDI as the top-preferred large-cap stock related to Energy Storage Systems (ESS). He also mentioned that analysis shows Hanwha Solutions and Seojin System can also be considered representative ESS companies. However, he clarified that this is not an absolute recommendation.

He explained, “The top-preferred large-cap stock related to ESS is, of course, Samsung SDI. Based on analysis, Hanwha Solutions, Seojin System, these three can generally be considered representative ESS companies. (This is not an absolute recommendation).”

Yeom-bli expressed frustration with Hybe's stock price movement. He lamented that despite BTS's success and recently announced good earnings, the stock price has not risen. He said he would understand if the earnings were poor, but the current situation is hard to accept.

He said, “I'm a bit worried about Hybe. Even with BTS doing so well, it’s not moving. It’s frustrating. If the earnings were bad, I would understand, but the current earnings are so good and yet it’s not going up, it’s frustrating. I still see it going above 300,000 won. I hope you can wait a little longer,” urging investors to be patient, projecting over 300,000 won in the long term.

Regarding the Korea Financial ETF, Yeom-bli pointed out the disadvantage of its extremely small market capitalization of 37 billion won, advising caution in investing. He warned that low trading volume could lead to liquidity issues.

He mentioned, “The market capitalization is too small, only 37 billion won. That’s a disadvantage, please be careful about that. Trading volume is low. So, I don’t recommend the Korea Financial ETF. Because of its small size, I wanted to mention that.”

Yeom-bli earnestly asked investors to never engage in 'all-in investing.' He emphasized that they must have felt how risky it is to invest all assets in a single company through recent market conditions. He warned that while the joy of success from all-in investing is great, the potential losses from unpredictable situations can be enormous.

He said, “Oh, please, please don't go all-in. Please, I beg you. Please, no all-in on any company. You felt it this time, didn't you? What all-in can lead to? Of course, if you go all-in and it goes up, it feels good, but you never know what might happen. So, Samsung Electronics, if it just goes up a little more, it will reach 300,000 won. Anyway, hang in there, and let's please not go all-in next time,” reminding everyone once again of the dangers of all-in investing.

Yeom-bli strongly warned against investing with funds that have a fixed period. He asserted that such investments almost 100% lead to failure, stating that successful cases are rare. In contrast, he explained that investing with余裕 (surplus) funds allows one to cope with market volatility from a long-term perspective without being swayed by daily fluctuations.

He advised, “You should not invest with money that has a fixed period. It almost 100% fails. Seriously, there are no successful cases. But if you have surplus funds, you can just leave them alone,” emphasizing the importance of the nature of investment funds for investment success.

Citing OpenAI's Sam Altman, Yeom-bli evaluated that VR (virtual reality) technology, unlike AI, might merely be a 'trend.' He viewed AI ChatGPT as a world-changing technology, while VR, with its current limited market size, is more likely to end up as a trend.

He mentioned, “Sam Altman said that there are things that are just new trends and things that change the world. AI ChatGPT is changing the world, but VR is a trend right now. The market isn’t growing. That’s a bit unfortunate,” explaining the difference in impact between the two technologies.

Yeom-bli introduced the lecture to be held next Saturday, stating that special speakers would participate in this lecture. 'Pikachu Uncle,' who is in charge of power equipment on Telegram, and the operator of 'US Stock Inside,' the second most subscribed stock channel on Telegram, will be speakers.

He emphasized that participants would be able to learn how to spot stock information and utilize Telegram through them. The lecture is scheduled to start next Saturday at 1 PM.

Yeom-bli revealed his own know-how for mental management. He stated that he manages his mental state by continuously reading related materials and verifying if his thoughts are correct. He explained that while it is difficult when stock prices fall despite him not being wrong, he regains control through this process.

He also added that getting enough sleep, having a personality that tends to forget things easily and therefore not dwelling on past failures, and walking without any specific thoughts help with mental management.

Yeom-bli pointed out that the stock performance of Hanul Semiconductor is poor, and despite being an inspection equipment company, its earnings continuously show deficits. He advised that since Hanul Semiconductor's current situation is not good, if the stock price rebounds, investors should sell it and switch to other materials, parts, and equipment (Sobu-jang) companies.

He said, “Hanul Semiconductor's stock price is in chaos right now. It's an inspection equipment company, but its performance isn't very good. Honestly, I'm not sure about Hanul Semiconductor. Its performance isn't good; it's continuously in the red. If it rebounds, sell it. Try switching to another Sobu-jang company. A rebound might be what's needed.”