Hyundai Motor's Claim to Overtake Tesla by 2033 Sparks Controversy

This is pointed out as a significant omission, considering that the core of robot technology lies more in the 'head' that directs and judges, rather than the physical 'body.' Boston Dynamics itself acknowledges the limitations of AI control despite its excellent hardware and is seeking to adopt external technology.

The absence of any mention of this critical partnership in Hyundai Motor's robot business presentation raises further doubts about its credibility.

This indirectly indicates that Hyundai Motor is relying on external sources for core technology in its robot business.

Korea Economic Daily also pointed out the lack of new news regarding the robot business. Samsung Securities also lowered its target stock price from 650,000 won to 600,000 won, a 7.7% reduction, indicating that Hyundai Motor's announcement failed to meet market expectations.

The graph's horizontal axis is set from 2026 to 2036, showing a point where Hyundai Motor's and a competitor's data curves intersect in 2033. However, the vertical axis only states 'Learning Data' with no specific information like units, scales, or numerical values. Furthermore, it makes the unrealistic assumption that the competitor's data accumulation stops in 2033, raising doubts about the graph's reliability.

Hyundai Motor admits that data needs to be converted and refined before learning due to differences in sensor configuration and format. Data standardization is planned to be applied from 2028, suggesting a low likelihood of utilizing previously accumulated data. This is also evident in the data format differences between 42dot and Motional, highlighting Hyundai Motor's challenges in data integration and utilization.

In contrast to Hyundai Motor's assumption in its autonomous driving learning data graph that competitor data accumulation will stagnate in 2033, Tesla is accumulating data at an overwhelming pace. According to Tesla's FSD cumulative mileage records, it exceeded 7 billion miles on December 27th last year and surpassed 13 billion miles on August 3rd. This data accumulation speed is not slowing down over time but is rather accelerating. This suggests that Hyundai Motor is predicting the 'overtaking' point based on unrealistic assumptions without reflecting the realistic data growth of its competitors.

However, this is a significantly smaller scale compared to Tesla's data accumulation. As of May, Tesla accumulates approximately 28.8 million miles of FSD driving data per day. Doubts are being raised about the realism of Hyundai Motor's goal to achieve Tesla-level autonomous driving technology in a short period by starting with about 200 vehicles for verification, assuming that competitors' data growth has stopped. This goal amplifies skepticism about the practicality of the announcement.

His resume shows that he worked at Tesla's Autopilot Computer Vision Team as a Senior Engineering Manager for visual perception from March 2015 to June 2017, a period of 2 years and 3 months. He also served as Vice President of Autonomous Driving Perception at Nvidia for 8 years and 7 months. This background demonstrates his significant expertise in autonomous driving, and it is presumed that his experience has influenced the direction of Hyundai Motor's autonomous driving strategy.

This aligns precisely with the technical direction Tesla is pursuing with FSD version 12. Tesla FSD v12 adopts a method of processing the entire process from perception to control using neural networks. Given that Hyundai Motor shares the same technical goal as Tesla, it appears that Hyundai Motor is setting a goal to achieve in just three years the technological transition that Tesla has accumulated over seven years. This is considered a very challenging goal.

Hyundai Motor aims to start verification with 200 vehicles by the end of 2026 and mass-produce end-to-end autonomous driving by 2029. However, considering that Tesla has reached its current technological level by accumulating tens of millions of miles of data daily over seven years, doubts are raised about the realism of Hyundai Motor's three-year completion plan. Tesla has advanced its technology based on vast data collected from millions of vehicles. In contrast, Hyundai Motor plans to achieve the same level of technology in a short period with a small number of verification vehicles, increasing skepticism about its feasibility.

It plans to accelerate development by adopting proven external technologies, such as purchasing Nvidia's autonomous driving platform and borrowing Google's AI. Additionally, it is diversifying its business models, such as supplying robot taxis to Waymo and operating Motional, to spread risk. This contrasts with Tesla, which achieves exclusive status if successful by vertically integrating and developing all technologies in-house, but has no alternative if it fails. Hyundai Motor is employing a strategy to quickly acquire technology by following paths already established by others.

Figures like an initial volume of 25,000 robots, the scheduled supply of Waymo robot taxis in Q4, and a $26 billion investment in the U.S. are all ongoing actual matters. However, many criticisms point out that the basis for the statement about overtaking Tesla by 2033 remains weak and unclear. The success of Hyundai Motor's robot business is ultimately closely linked to the success of its autonomous driving technology, and how to resolve this critical link remains Hyundai Motor's biggest challenge. While actual investments and concrete business models exist, exaggerated goals and insufficient evidence diminish the credibility of the announcement.