September Stock Market to See Strong Rebound… 80 Points Expected

If rookie investors focus on complex market volatility factors such as futures expiry, they can become psychologically more unstable. This information can be difficult for individual investors to judge, as it is highly likely to lead to hasty sell-offs or impulsive trading based on morning market conditions.

In the extreme market conditions of June-July, foreign supply and demand were critical, but in the current market, the importance of futures supply and demand has decreased compared to before. It is more helpful to observe consistent trends over one or two months rather than daily supply and demand. If foreign buying continues, the downside may be limited.

A 'bullish engulfing' candle appeared on the KOSDAQ monthly chart. August is significant in that it halted the sharp decline of June-July and rebounded. If the market succeeds in rising in September, a larger rally could be possible. If the KOSPI defends the meaningful starting line of 8/12 and the KOSDAQ defends 8/4, further gains are expected, and momentum appears to have formed for the KOSDAQ index to reach 7,500-7,600 in September.

Sector-specific rotation actively occurred, irrespective of buying by other corporations.

The market is expected to normalize with a decline in the volatility index, and the semiconductor sector is anticipated to play a leading role.

Further drops in the volatility index and a limited correction range are expected.

Broadcom's earnings announcement could be an opportunity to re-evaluate the stock prices of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Improved performance from Micron, along with rising D-RAM and NAND prices, are also expected, which should lead to a rebound in the semiconductor sector.

The current market movement appears to be a technical rebound to the KOSPI 2,750 level and KOSDAQ 920 level. This is interpreted as a recovery of the July losses, and it is still too early to consider this a major bull market.

The Treasury Secretary's commitment to suppressing interest rate hikes is effectively influencing the market. Until the 10-year yield breaks 4.8% and the 30-year yield breaks 5.4%, the current level of interest rate increase is considered tolerable. Therefore, it is necessary to guard against excessive fear regarding rising interest rates.

Oil prices rose 3%, but the market reaction has not been significant yet. However, if oil prices break above $90 again, market risks could escalate. If market uncertainty increases in conjunction with movements in US Treasury yields, it is necessary to secure some cash and approach the market from a conservative perspective.

Averaging down on declining stocks, such as semiconductors, may be meaningless. It is more advantageous to hold existing underwater stocks and wait for a rotational rally, while new investment funds should focus on strong stocks. Actively making new investments by selling existing holdings is not a recommended option.

I bought Doosan Enerbility, viewing the nuclear power sector positively. This was based on expectations of a rebound after forming a bottom, taking into account AI data center power issues and US investment schedules. Although Doosan Enerbility is not the absolute leader in the nuclear power market, if it establishes its position, a target price of over 100,000 won could be possible.

However, if the US stock market experiences a significant drop, all of today's gains could be erased, making the direction of the US market more crucial.

Companies like POSCO Future M, L&F, and Samsung SDI are mentioned as stocks that continue to be viewed positively. Furthermore, interest in the nuclear power and power sectors is growing due to AI-related power issues.