U.S. Troop Reduction: Beyond Threatening European Security, It Harms the U.S. Too

Plans are being reviewed to reduce 25,000 to 40,000 troops from the approximately 80,000 U.S. soldiers currently stationed in Europe.

While it is generally believed that the U.S. unilaterally provides security to Europe, the loss of U.S. military bases in Europe could significantly impact the U.S.'s global strategy.

On March 27, Italy did not permit landing at Sigonella Air Base for a U.S. military operation related to Iran.

Spain also refused the operational use of its Rota and Morón bases and denied U.S. military aircraft passage through its airspace.

The U.S. warned Spain of economic retaliation, but no substantive measures were taken.

European bases serve as hubs for operations in the Middle East and Africa, are crucial for maintaining the petrodollar system, and are strategic assets for countering China.

The U.S. has prioritized strategic importance, securing bases even through cooperation with the Franco dictatorship in 1953.

Despite planning to expand Spain's Morón Air Base, including adding nine B-52 parking spots and ten refueling facilities, the U.S. paradoxically announced troop reductions as retaliation for Spain's refusal to allow base use.

Plans to reduce U.S. troops stationed in Spain, Italy, and Germany were scheduled to be announced after final notification and presidential approval on November 6.

This timeline was analyzed as a Trump administration election strategy to defer the decision until after the U.S. midterm elections.

Italy has actively contributed to NATO security, including shooting down drones in Lithuanian airspace, leading efforts to counter Russia.

However, it explicitly rejected the U.S. request for landing related to the Iran conflict, suggesting that the U.S. troop reduction has an element of retaliation against disobedient European countries.

In 1966, French President de Gaulle demanded the withdrawal of U.S. troops, confident in France's nuclear weapons development.

In 1967, when West Germany demanded gold convertibility from the U.S., the U.S. threatened troop withdrawal, hindering Germany's efforts to establish independent defense capabilities.

Distrust in U.S. security commitments in Europe is growing due to the U.S.'s handling of Saudi Arabia.

In this situation, U.S. troop reductions are expected to accelerate Europe's efforts to acquire independent defense capabilities within the next decade.

In the long term, the cost for Europe to refuse U.S. demands will decrease, and more European countries will be able to openly say 'no' to the U.S., similar to President de Gaulle in 1966.

Beyond pressuring disobedient countries, the Trump administration's goal in reducing U.S. troops in Europe is also to encourage increased European defense spending.

This is driven by the expectation that more defense spending in Europe will lead to more purchases of U.S. weapons, and President Trump has also pursued executive orders aimed at expanding U.S. production capabilities.

Europe introduced regulations limiting the use of components to 65% European-made.

This strategy aims to achieve self-sufficiency in the defense industry by requiring European companies to hold design change rights when adopting U.S. weapons and encouraging the establishment of defense factories within Europe.

The proportion of U.S.-made weapons, which was 64% from 2020 to 2024, decreased to 58% from 2021 to 2025.

In contrast, the share of South Korean-made weapons increased from 6.5% to 8.6%, with Poland, in particular, showing a preference for Korean products with 47% Korean and 44% U.S. share.

This is interpreted as a strategic choice to secure immediate defense capabilities required in modern warfare, such as drones, and to alleviate concerns about security gaps due to U.S. dependence.

With the establishment of a defense ecosystem in Europe, concerns are growing that the U.S. will no longer be able to control Europe as it wishes.

This could weaken the U.S.'s ability to mobilize Europe in a future hegemonic struggle with China and deepen the U.S.'s strategic dilemmas as Europe strengthens its independent course.