SK Hynix Decline Concerns Spread Ahead of Nvidia Earnings and Jackson Hole Symposium

Market attention is focused on next week's major economic events: Nvidia's earnings announcement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. These two events are expected to significantly impact the investment market. In particular, if the Fed Chair re-emphasizes his commitment to curbing inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium, analysis suggests that expectations for interest rate cuts in the market could be dashed, leading to increased volatility.

Samsung Electronics announced a shareholder return plan of up to 110 trillion won this year, but the market expressed disappointment. According to the announced plan, 15 trillion won will be used for share buybacks, and 30 trillion won will be paid as a cash dividend in the third quarter. However, despite these announcements, Samsung Electronics' stock price gave back its gains in after-hours trading and even fell.

On Friday, the KOSPI generally saw selling pressure prevail, with the exception of Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and some related stocks. In the KOSDAQ market, major stocks such as Alteogen, which fell 5%, and EcoPro, which fell 7%, showed weakness, intensifying overall downward pressure on the market.

This week in the US stock market, selling occurred in semiconductor and AI-related stocks, and funds rotated into the BAI (Beyond AI and Semiconductors) sector. This suggests that investors are looking to other sectors amidst the persistent high-interest rate environment and controversies over the overvaluation of some AI-related stocks.

After the Treasury Department announced it would double the size of its bond buyback program, interest rates temporarily fell. This is interpreted as a response to the sharp rise in 30-year bond yields to 5.3%. However, despite these measures, interest rates quickly rebounded, increasing market anxiety.

Oil prices surged 4% on Thursday, adding another layer of uncertainty to the market. The Treasury Secretary expressed bewilderment, stating it was difficult to understand the sharp rise in oil prices. High oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures, potentially impacting the Fed's interest rate policy and raising market concerns.

Bitcoin surpassed 100 million won, surging 18% in just one week. Some analysts suggest that the rapid inflow of funds into Bitcoin may be related to the recent overall decline in the stock market. This can be interpreted to mean that Bitcoin, emerging as an alternative investment, is absorbing liquidity from the stock market.

President Trump stated that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin did not inform him or seek his opinion regarding intervention in the bond market. This suggests that the Treasury Secretary's intervention in the bond market was based on an independent decision, and President Trump appeared to delegate responsibility to the Treasury Secretary.

The Treasury Department intervened in the bond market to lower interest rates, but they rebounded within a day, causing continued market anxiety. These interest rate fluctuations are negatively impacting both the KOSDAQ and KOSPI markets. In particular, the KOSPI is seeing a prominent decline in most stocks, excluding Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as the overall market correction continues.

The Nasdaq market is currently attempting to maintain an upward trend, but concerns about a short-term correction are growing. If downward pressure intensifies, maintaining the $705 support level will be a crucial technical indicator. A market expert recommends reducing investment by 10-20% to prepare for a short-term correction.

Prior to the recent interest rate hike and Treasury intervention, major semiconductor stocks showed declines. Currently, it is important to observe whether SanDisk maintains the $1520 level and Micron the $950 level. If these support levels hold, investor fear may be somewhat alleviated.

The put-call option ratio has been gradually increasing recently, indicating a rise in insurance purchases for market bearish positions. In late July, when the market was rising, there was little inclination to take bearish positions, but now investors are increasingly preparing for a market downturn.

The current high-interest rate environment is negatively impacting the AI sector. As interest rates rise, corporate borrowing costs increase, potentially squeezing margins and delaying growth for AI companies that require massive infrastructure investment. This could adversely affect Nvidia's upcoming earnings announcement, which will be a critical turning point in determining the future direction of supply and demand in the AI sector.