Bitcoin Breaks $70,000 Amid Large Capital Inflows and Shifting Regulatory Outlook

Of the proceeds, the company allocated $300 million to cash reserves and used $136.4 million to redeem preferred stock. "Through the ATM stock sales, we raised $2 billion," Orlando Kim reported. The remaining $1.5 billion is likely to be used for additional bitcoin purchases.

Expectations are growing that a U.S. crypto bill will pass, with projected odds of 43% by April 1, 2027, and 65% by July 1, 2027. Orlando Kim offered an optimistic outlook, saying, "The probability of passage by April 1, 2027 is 43%. By July 1, 2027, it is 65%." Separately from the bill, institutionalization through rulemaking by financial regulators is also possible, and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is optimistic about Senate passage on September 15.

Orlando Kim explained, "Interest in regulation has risen. That is why bitcoin recorded a double-digit gain this time and broke above $70,000 on Thursday." Regulatory clarity encourages stablecoin adoption and institutional capital inflows, which are cited as key drivers behind bitcoin's recent double-digit gain and its breakout above $70,000.

Hedge fund veteran Ray Dalio warned that without major structural policy adjustments, a severe sovereign debt crisis could hit within the next three years (margin of error ±2 years). He said, "Without major structural policy adjustments, a severe sovereign debt crisis could arrive within three years, plus or minus two years." He pointed out that U.S. national debt has surpassed $40 trillion and the annual fiscal deficit has reached $2 trillion. Revenue stands at $5.5 trillion while spending reaches $7.5 trillion, and interest costs alone amount to $1 trillion, a vicious cycle that is deepening. Such conditions heighten concerns about the depreciation of fiat currency and suggest that scarce-supply assets like bitcoin could emerge as alternative stores of value.

A prolonged negative premium index can signal that investor sentiment is depressed or that selling pressure is strong.

The first support is a breakout zone near $75,700. Orlando Kim said, "Support is the breakout zone near $75,700. It has turned into the first support, and if it clearly breaks above the $83,000 dense supply zone to the upside, an uptrend can be confirmed." A clear break above the $83,000 dense supply zone could signal a shift to an uptrend. Conversely, a drop back below $75,000 could suggest that recent moves were driven mainly by a short squeeze.

For bitcoin's uptrend to continue, spot and perpetual futures demand must both turn positive and stay that way for a full month. Orlando Kim stressed, "If spot and perpetual futures demand turn positive at the same time and this holds for a full month, the signal is upgraded from tentative to structural." The key to the short-term rebound is whether Ethereum holds support at $2,400, while for longer-term gains, progress on U.S. crypto legislation and SEC regulation will be important catalysts. These factors are expected to work together to stimulate the market's appetite for risk assets.

Orlando Kim explained, "This week holds the key point of whether bitcoin breaks above the $83,000 level or pulls back and consolidates. Nvidia reports earnings after the close on August 26, followed by second-quarter GDP, Chair Powell's keynote speech at Jackson Hole on August 28, and the July PCE price index, which will likely determine interest rates." Nvidia's earnings are due August 26, while Chair Powell's keynote at the Jackson Hole meeting and the July PCE price index release are scheduled for August 28. These results are expected to have a major impact on market rate expectations and bitcoin's price.