Lee Jae-myung Administration Faces Security and Approval Rating Crisis

Reports have emerged that the United States is strongly requesting military assistance, specifically troop deployment, for the Strait of Hormuz from the Lee Jae-myung administration ahead of its November 3 midterm elections. This is being perceived as a major crisis for the Lee Jae-myung administration. The confirmation of a dispatched investigative team under Minister of National Defense Ahn Gyu-baek to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has led to observations that this deployment pressure may be becoming a reality.

Within the Lee Jae-myung administration, conflict over the Hormuz deployment is intensifying. Those opposing deployment raise concerns about the possibility of U.S. tariff retaliation and harm to security interests. With the U.S. strongly demanding allies participate in its security interests ahead of the midterm elections, the Lee Jae-myung administration's diplomatic position is reportedly narrowing.

The government stated that the dispatch of an investigative team to the Strait of Hormuz was not predicated on deployment. However, criticism is being raised that the Lee Jae-myung administration's statements on this matter may not align with the facts.

There are claims that the dispatch of the investigative team is preparatory work for actual deployment. Criticism is also being directed at the Ministry of National Defense's reporting system while President Lee Jae-myung is on an overseas trip to France. Concerns are being raised that the decision-making process for significant matters like troop deployment is not transparent in the absence of the president.

The Lee Jae-myung administration's positive assessment for state affairs recorded 34.6%, while negative assessment was 62.8%, widening the positive-negative gap to a significant 28.2 percentage points. It is noteworthy that the positive assessment fell below the 35% mark. In the Jeolla region, positive assessment was 44% versus negative assessment 54%, indicating a reversal of support.

Among those in their 40s and 50s, negative assessment exceeded 50%, clearly showing signs of departure from regions and generations that were once the core support base of the Lee Jae-myung administration. This indicates a weakening of the overall support base, excluding enthusiastic supporters. Concerns are being raised that the current administration may lose its momentum in state affairs.

An analysis suggests that if the approval rating drops to the 20s after only about a year in office, it is virtually considered a crisis level for resignation. This can be interpreted as strong evidence that public sentiment is rejecting the current administration. An approval rating entering the 20s signifies a serious situation where even the legitimacy of maintaining power is threatened.

In a party support poll, the People Power Party recorded 42.2% while the Democratic Party lagged at 38.6%, widening the gap between the two parties to 3.6 percentage points. This is an even wider gap compared to the previous poll. The decline in the Democratic Party's support is analyzed as a phenomenon linked to the assessment of the Lee Jae-myung administration's performance in state affairs.

In the Seoul area, the party support rating gap was found to be 20 percentage points. Such a large gap in a specific region is considered an important indicator that can directly affect future election results. This outcome has also led to an analysis that it could pose a crisis to the leadership of Kim Min-seok's system.

In a public opinion poll regarding the appointment of ministerial candidate Yong Hye-in, opposition was overwhelming at 72.2%, while only 16.6% approved. This figure shows that even within some Democratic Party supporters, there is opposition to Yong Hye-in's appointment, indicating a phenomenon of departure. Overall public opinion was confirmed to be negative regarding Yong Hye-in's appointment.

The Chosun Ilbo published an exclusive report stating that Representative Kim Min-seok conveyed an opinion of unsuitability regarding candidate Yong Hye-in to President Lee Jae-myung. The Blue House immediately denied receiving such an opinion, but as the confirmation hearing for candidate Yong Hye-in continues to be delayed, suspicions are further escalating. Observations suggest that political controversy is at play behind the hearing's delay.

Although the negative assessment of the Lee Jae-myung administration reached 64.9%, criticism has been raised that it is difficult to identify the specific reasons for this negative assessment due to such generalized questioning. It is argued that accurate public sentiment can only be confirmed by asking questions on a case-by-case basis. There is a limitation that the current survey method makes it difficult to clearly understand why the public is dissatisfied with the administration's performance.

A claim has emerged that the currently debated parliamentary investigation will be ineffective, and the introduction of a special prosecutor (SP) is necessary. It was suggested that a parliamentary investigation has limitations in its investigative authority, making proper truth-finding difficult, and cannot rule out the possibility of it favoring the opposition party. In contrast, there are high expectations that an SP, through independent investigative authority, can get closer to the truth.

Ahead of the confirmation hearing for ministerial candidate Kim Seung-won, an unprecedented dedicated response team involving National Assembly members was formed within the Democratic Party. Typically, when a ministerial candidate emerges, a separate confirmation hearing preparation team is usually formed, even if the candidate is from the ruling party. However, the establishment of a dedicated response team at the lawmaker level for candidate Kim Seung-won shows that the Democratic Party is doing its utmost to defend the candidate.

This unusual formation of a response team suggests that candidate Kim Seung-won's confirmation hearing will not be easy, and it also implies that the Democratic Party is in a desperate situation. Some have also raised concerns about the fairness of the candidate verification process. The opposition party is criticizing the formation of this response team.

Recently in the political sector, the remarks of lawmakers Kim Min-seok, Song Young-gil, and Kim Ui-gyeom, and Minister Han Dong-hoon's response to them, have intensified, resembling a 'mud-slinging fight.' Criticism is being raised that the quality of politics is deteriorating as mutual slander and attacks continue. This situation raises concerns that it could deepen public distrust in politics.

Suspicions have been raised that Sejong Medical, once a prominent KOSDAQ-listed company, collapsed due to stock manipulation forces. It is alleged that stock manipulators latched onto the company and took it over. Bae Sang-yoon of KH Group is also claimed to be involved in this process. The Sejong Medical incident is cited as a classic example of stock manipulation that disrupts market order and causes significant harm to investors.

Controversy has arisen over ministerial candidate Kim Seung-won's lead sponsorship of a support bill directly related to a cooperative operated by his spouse. This has led to accusations of a conflict of interest. Furthermore, suspicions have emerged that Suwon City expressed a biased stance regarding this controversy.

Sponsoring a bill related to a spouse's business can be perceived as a significant issue regarding the ethical duties of a public official. Suwon City's statement also raises fairness concerns, leading to calls for additional verification of candidate Kim Seung-won's morality. This controversy is expected to be a major point of contention during Kim Seung-won's confirmation hearing.