China-Philippines Feud Escalates in South China Sea

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. publicly challenged Beijing during a defense dialogue held in South Korea on September 8th. The confrontation unfolded when an aide handed Teodoro a note from the Chinese military attaché. Teodoro then read the note aloud, which contained Beijing's rejection of the 2016 Arbitration Award concerning the South China Sea dispute.

Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. explicitly rejected the 'gray zone' label previously used to describe Chinese activities in the disputed waters. He asserted that the nature of these operations has escalated beyond ambiguous pressure. Teodoro characterized China's actions as direct coercion, bullying, and outright aggression, providing a clearer and more forceful description of the situation.

In response to Manila's accusations, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning issued a rebuttal on September 9th. China asserted that the Philippines had abused the dispute settlement provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Beijing further accused Manila of undermining the integrity of the convention through its actions and claims.

The legal dispute over the South China Sea began in January 2013 when the Philippines initiated arbitration proceedings against China. This culminated in a final award issued by the tribunal on July 12, 2016. The ruling specifically invalidated China's claims of 'historic rights' within extensive maritime areas of the South China Sea.

On September 7th, Chinese forces reportedly fired flares in the direction of an unarmed Philippine aircraft. This incident occurred near Subi Reef and Mischief Reef, areas central to the ongoing dispute. Manila described the flight as a routine maritime awareness mission, underscoring the increasing dangers faced by its forces in these contested waters.

Chinese embassy spokesperson Wu defended Beijing's actions, stating that the Philippine aircraft had entered what China considers its airspace. China maintains its sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, also known as the Spratly Islands. Beijing asserts that its forces took necessary measures to protect national sovereignty in response to perceived intrusions.

The 2016 tribunal classified both Mischief and Subi Reefs as low-tide elevations, meaning they do not generate their own territorial seas or exclusive economic zones. Mischief Reef, in particular, is legally recognized as part of the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone and continental shelf. Manila asserts that China's large-scale reclamation efforts and the construction of artificial islands do not alter the natural legal status of these maritime features under international law.

China has undertaken significant construction on artificial islands within the Spratly chain, developing extensive infrastructure. These facilities include runways, aircraft hangars, radar systems, communication facilities, and harbors. Beijing argues that these constructions are on its own territory and that its territorial claims in the South China Sea predate the current legal disputes, asserting historical rights to the area.

Second Thomas Shoal remains a critical flashpoint, where the BRP Sierra Madre, an aging naval landing ship deliberately grounded in 1999, serves as a permanent Philippine military outpost. China consistently demands the removal of the vessel and actively opposes Philippine resupply missions to its troops stationed there. Tensions at the shoal escalated significantly in June 2024 when a Filipino sailor was reportedly injured by a wooden baton during a confrontation.

The Philippine Coast Guard has accused Chinese vessels of employing water cannons against Philippine government ships in recent encounters. Additionally, reports indicate that one Chinese vessel approached within several meters of a Philippine fisheries boat, raising concerns about safety and navigation. Beijing, in turn, defends these actions as lawful control measures conducted within what it considers its jurisdiction, further deepening the conflict.

Given its lack of military parity with China, Manila's defensive strategy places a strong emphasis on international law, public documentation of confrontations, and deepening security cooperation with allies and partners. This approach seeks to leverage diplomatic and legal avenues to counter China's assertiveness. However, the involvement of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty introduces a significant risk of escalation, potentially broadening the scope of any future conflict.

Representatives from China and the ten ASEAN member states convened in Manila on September 10th and 11th for the 58th ASEAN-China Joint Working Group Meeting. The discussions focused on implementing the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and progressing towards a Code of Conduct. However, these ongoing diplomatic talks face a fundamental contradiction with the increasing physical friction and confrontations at sea, highlighting the gap between dialogue and reality.

A decade after the arbitration award, the legal proceedings regarding the South China Sea are concluded, but the political and strategic struggle surrounding them remains very much alive. Neither China nor the Philippines shows signs of abandoning its core position or claims. The frequent maneuvers and confrontations in the contested waters create high risks of miscalculation and potential conflict, underscoring the enduring instability in the region.