Market Rebound Expected After September…Semiconductors in Focus

The recent rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has significantly impacted the domestic stock market, especially the KOSPI. News of surging WTI oil prices caused difficulties for top market capitalization stocks. In contrast, oil-related stocks rose, bolstered by the jump in oil prices.

Amid this market sentiment, some COVID-19 theme stocks, such as Ildong Pharmaceutical and Shin Poong Pharmaceutical, showed strength. Additionally, Doosan Fuel Cell and Bumhan Fuel Cell attracted investor attention with strong performance after announcing sales-related disclosures.

Geopolitical risks, such as the outbreak of war, inevitably cause short-term shocks to the market. However, historical precedents show that when markets decline significantly due to war, purchasing at the low point often leads to profits over time. The biggest constraint is that individual investors often lack sufficient cash to actively buy during such opportunities.

In this situation, if the war escalates further, bond yields could rise, increasing market uncertainty. Therefore, investors need to carefully assess how much worse the current situation might become.

With KOSPI trading volume significantly contracted to around 17 trillion won, market recovery requires a preceding recovery in trading volume. This is expected to become possible after September 7, with investors returning from holidays and bond-related issues being resolved. Therefore, instead of being overly sensitive to short-term market fluctuations, it is effective to view the current period as an opportunity for low-cost buying.

If stock prices become inexpensive due to various factors, it is advisable to accumulate as much as possible. A strategy of waiting for market recovery from a long-term perspective is necessary.

Recent delays in data center connections in Texas have raised uncertainty in the semiconductor industry. These delays are due to unclear orders or actual connections and are not a direct factor in reducing capital expenditures (CapEx) for semiconductor companies, according to analysis.

However, the situation where data centers seem to experience bottlenecks due to policy restrictions is concerning. This could affect the overall semiconductor supply chain, so future policy changes and their impact need to be closely monitored.

During periods of increased volatility, such as war, investors with insufficient cash should avoid hasty stop-loss sales. In such situations, patience is needed to calmly observe the market, utilizing time, which is an individual's greatest weapon. If the average purchase price is not bad, simply watching the market can be an investment strategy.

Investors need to clearly distinguish their identity: whether they are traders seeking short-term gains or long-term value investors. In a rapidly changing market, adhering to one's investment principles is crucial.

If additional purchases are difficult due to a lack of cash in an uncertain market, rather than making premature judgments, it may be a wise choice to coolly assess the situation of current holdings and observe market trends. This is a strategy to reduce losses and wait for the next opportunity.

Therefore, at times like these, it is necessary to abandon impatience and approach with caution, aligning with one's asset situation and investment goals.

Despite geopolitical risks, major semiconductor-related stocks in the U.S. market, such as SK Hynix ADR and Micron Technology, did not experience significant declines. In fact, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index saw a larger drop. This suggests that further declines in domestic semiconductor stocks could present buying opportunities for investors with available funds.

Considering foreign investor supply and demand and share buyback trends, there is a possibility that the downside of semiconductor stocks will be somewhat supported unless large-scale sell-offs of trillions of won occur. Therefore, it is important to check the capacity for purchase and respond in case of further declines.

Whether major semiconductor stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fall sharply by more than 3-4% will be a critical turning point for the market. Samsung Electronics' chart shows a repeated pattern of strong lower tails, indicating powerful downside support in certain ranges.

If this support line breaks, investor demand will shift much more towards theme stocks. Since there are no major negative factors for the semiconductor industry itself, confirming the downside support of large semiconductor stocks is important for considering investment opportunity costs during a market downturn.

In the current market situation of decreasing trading volume, corporate share buybacks act as an important downside support factor. Share buybacks consistently supply buying volume to the market, helping to defend against stock price declines. This is not a short-term issue but a long-term absorption process that spans several months, helping to support stock prices in specific ranges.

Share buybacks prevent sharp stock price declines during periods of supply-demand gaps, providing investors with a basis to maintain their positions at a certain level. However, after buybacks conclude, market direction may be determined once again, so the duration and scale of buybacks must be continuously monitored.

As WTI futures prices surge, war-related theme stocks, including oil, shipping, feed, and grains, are spreading across the board. The market tends to focus on war-related stocks initially, but caution is advised against overheating when such theme rotation extends to smaller stocks like fertilizers.

Avoid chasing rapidly rising stocks, and if trading, a quick exit strategy is crucial. When the market overheats, it's essential to approach it cautiously without greed.

In stock trading, whether a candle breaks through a breakthrough zone is very important. Even if a new high is achieved at the previous peak, if it pulls back with an upper wick, it should be recognized as short-term resistance, and selling off holdings may be appropriate.

For trend maintenance, the candle must definitively break through that resistance line based on the closing price. If it fails to break through and remains within the box range, additional time may be required, so these technical indicators must be carefully analyzed when selecting stocks.

Unless foreign investors engage in large-scale selling of trillions of won, the domestic stock market is unlikely to face significant problems. The current exchange rate is maintaining around 1372 won, and if it does not deviate significantly from this level, the exchange rate is unlikely to act as a major variable for the market.

Therefore, the main market variables are foreign investor supply and demand trends and exchange rate stability. If these two maintain their current levels, the market is expected to show a stable trend.

Unlike in the past, recent game stocks are showing differentiated movements based on individual company performance and game rankings, rather than an entire sector rising together. This suggests that investors are more sensitive to individual performance indicators, such as a specific game's daily revenue or market reaction.

Therefore, when investing in game stocks, it is necessary to analyze each company's individual competitiveness and new game performance meticulously, rather than merely approaching based on overall industry growth.

Recent reports on Samsung Electro-Mechanics presented positive analyses related to large-scale orders and Long-Term Agreements (LTA). The target price has been raised from the previous 1.75 million won to 2 million won, reflecting high expectations. This appears to be driven by MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) price increases and a shortage trend.

In the short term, a volatility of about 10% from the current level is considered fully possible. While there may be opportunities for some profit-taking during short-term rallies, a positive trend is also expected from a medium to long-term perspective.

Market declines due to geopolitical issues like war can present short-term investment opportunities. However, the consistent problem is often a lack of funds to capitalize on such opportunities. If the situation remains without other variables besides war, the market will gradually adapt to these shocks.

The possibility of an all-out war escalating is currently assessed as low. Therefore, investors should not be overly swayed by short-term market fluctuations but rather focus on seizing opportunities from a long-term perspective.

Gold and silver investments have primarily demonstrated profitability when held for the long term. Gold, in particular, as a safe-haven asset, can yield good results with long-term holding. Silver tends to be more volatile than gold, making it more suitable for trading.

If the backlog (waiting queue) for ordering physical gold or silver becomes long, it likely indicates that the market is overheated and has reached a peak. Therefore, cautious approach is needed when backlogs are long, and a strategy of dollar-cost averaging from a long-term perspective is effective.

Following the positive report on Samsung Electro-Mechanics, a rotation is occurring, centering on MLCC-related stocks. MLCC-related stocks such as Cochips and Samwha Condenser are showing sharp increases.

The positive trend in the MLCC sector also influences the substrate side, tending to improve it as well. This maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry as a whole, and investors need to pay attention to the trends of related materials, parts, and equipment (Soo-Boo-Jang) stocks.

Therefore, MLCC and substrate-related stocks are emerging as noteworthy investment options in the current market, requiring continuous attention and analysis.