Micron Earnings Release Seen as Chip Sector Turning Point

Today US stocks closed mostly flat, with the S&P down 0.17%, the Nasdaq down 0.09%, and the Dow down 0.26%.

Meanwhile, the market is focused on Micron's earnings release, scheduled for Thursday at 5 a.m. Korean time. The results are likely to affect not only the semiconductor sector but also the KOSPI.

Former President Donald Trump held a lunch roundtable with leaders of AI-related companies, including Elon Musk (Tesla), Jensen Huang (Nvidia), Google, Micron, and OpenAI.

There, Trump rebranded AI as 'superintelligence' and said he had signed what he called an 'AI Constitution,' which would let companies regulate themselves voluntarily.

Trump argued that direct government regulation could slow AI growth, and signaled his intent to speed up technological development, including the construction of AI data centers, through self-regulation.

The 10-year yield hit 5.3% today, and the 30-year climbed to 5.57%, its highest since 2002.

According to a Bloomberg survey, most market participants believe that if the 10-year yield starts to exceed 5.25%, the S&P 500 could fall 10% from its peak.

The Conference Board's consumer expectations index has fallen below 90, a level last seen in 2020, signaling signs of an economic slowdown.

High oil prices and inflation stemming from the Iran war persist, while reduced consumer spending power and high interest rates are deepening a preference for saving. Forecasts also point to three more rate hikes over the rest of the year.

The market faces conflicting forces: the acceleration of the AI industry and a deteriorating macroeconomy. There is also hope that risks tied to the Iran war could ease, removing a source of pressure.

If the market falls, a sound strategy may be to treat a 10% correction in the S&P 500, or further declines driven by high rates, as a buying opportunity. Trump's policy measures could also help form a market bottom.

SK Hynix is moving in a symmetrical triangle pattern, with buying expected around 177,000 won. Resistance sits at 195,000 won.

Samsung Electronics has been falling since peaking at 275,000 won, while the KOSPI is holding support at 6,750 and resistance at 7,200.

The KOSPI is currently maintaining an upward trend.

Support has formed near 6,750, and if it climbs toward the top of the range, resistance is located near 7,200.

Looking at Micron's earnings track record, actual results have often come in above both Wall Street analyst estimates and the company's own guidance.

Micron's implied volatility ranges from 6% to 9%, which is expected to be a key indicator of how the stock moves after the earnings release.

Micron's P/E ratio is 23.9, a relatively low level. Wall Street analysts' ratings are overwhelmingly positive, with 57 buy, 4 hold, and 0 sell.

The stock currently trades at $106.5, while the price target is set at $160. Micron has posted results above Wall Street and company forecasts in each past earnings release, and whether price targets are raised after this release will be an important point to watch.