New York Stock Market Falls Amid Interest Rate Hike Concerns

The possibility of an interest rate hike, which had briefly subsided due to recent statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials hinting at a rate freeze, has risen again due to strong employment figures. Last week, the market's probability of a rate hike had dropped to 50/50 after remarks from Fed President Williams and Governor Waller suggesting a rate freeze, but it has now tilted back towards a hike at 60/40 after the employment data release.

This shift in sentiment has caused significant confusion in the market. Investors are awaiting clear guidance from the Fed.

Particularly last Friday, the semiconductor sector surged in the New York stock market with strong supply and demand.

This is analyzed as investors flocking to semiconductor companies with clear growth potential to avoid uncertainty, even without specific positive news, as the likelihood of an interest rate hike increased.

U.S. August employment data recorded 162,000 cases, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 56,000 cases by nearly three times. Such a large discrepancy raises questions about the reliability of statistical data.

Employment growth was particularly prominent in government, healthcare, leisure, and hospitality sectors, with analysis suggesting it is largely a temporary rebound. The market is demanding further interpretation and verification of these sudden numerical fluctuations.

The initial public offering (IPO) schedule for AI startup Anthropic is likely to be postponed from early October to mid-November. According to Reuters, Anthropic is expected to conduct corporate marketing in mid-October and pursue listing a few days before the U.S. midterm elections in November.

Anthropic is valued at over $2 trillion, leading to concerns that its listing could absorb vast amounts of capital, becoming a supply-demand 'black hole' in the market. Furthermore, intensifying technological competition with OpenAI and cost-efficiency issues are also emerging.

The emergence of such a large IPO is expected to further fuel investment enthusiasm across the AI industry. However, in the short term, it cannot be ruled out that it might concentrate market liquidity into specific companies, thereby dampening investor sentiment for other stocks.

Anthropic's listing is garnering attention as a significant event that, along with AI technological advancement, could reshape the landscape of the related market.

Approximately 60% of the 160,000 increase is attributed to a one-time return from the holiday season.

Excluding this, the actual employment increase is around 80,000, which aligns with previous forecasts. Therefore, current employment data alone is unlikely to provide sufficient grounds for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to rush an interest rate hike.

This is due to active investment in AI-related facilities, such as data center construction.

Conversely, workforce reductions in the finance and information services sectors are analyzed as evidence of increased efficiency and automation driven by AI adoption. This demonstrates that AI is not just advancing technology but is also bringing about changes in productivity in actual industrial settings.

OpenAI's GPT-6 'Astra' focuses on enhancing this end-to-end work performance.

There is a growing recognition that higher task success rates lead to greater practical cost efficiency, even if the token unit price is somewhat higher. This suggests that AI models are moving away from benchmark score competition to developing based on actual task success rates in real business environments.

Moving forward, in evaluating the value of AI models, how accurately and efficiently they can perform complex tasks from beginning to end will become crucial. This change is expected to significantly impact AI development directions and investment strategies.

Through performance improvements, AI is laying the groundwork for deeper integration into various industries.

Major U.S. companies, such as NVIDIA providing earnings guidance for 2027 and Broadcom for 2028, are increasingly predicting future earnings 1-2 years out. This helps boost investor confidence and maintain stable company valuations.

Such proactive future predictions by U.S. companies offer investors a long-term vision and stability, reducing uncertainty. This allows companies to build a more robust investment foundation.

There is a growing need for South Korean companies to also provide transparent and proactive communication of future earnings guidance, similar to their U.S. counterparts. This could positively impact the valuation of Korean companies.

Especially in growth industries like semiconductors, providing long-term outlooks will become even more crucial for attracting investment and securing market trust.

Of this, 1.8 million tons will be used for producing automotive steel plates.

The construction of this steel mill holds strategic significance, as it bypasses tariff barriers of 25-50% and establishes a complete supply chain in the U.S., from steel to automobiles and robots. Through this, Hyundai Motor Group expects to further strengthen its competitiveness in the North American market.

Additionally, this steel mill incorporates technology to reduce carbon emissions compared to hydrogen-reduced iron, thereby proactively addressing environmental regulations. This aligns with Hyundai Motor Group's vision of pursuing sustainable management.

The initial target achievement was shortened by 117 days, with June exports reaching $102 billion.

Semiconductors, in particular, are driving this export boom, accounting for approximately 40% of total exports. This figure once again demonstrates the overwhelming influence of the semiconductor industry on the Korean economy.

Specifically, agricultural and fishery products like ramen and beverages grew by 15%, and fashion items grew by over 30%, leading the overall export increase.

This growth is analyzed as having occurred irrespective of China's 'patriotic consumption' trend. In contrast, cosmetics, which were once a major export item, showed a contrasting picture with a 3.6% decrease.

The growth in the food and fashion sectors exemplifies both the changing Chinese consumer market and the competitiveness of Korean products. It is necessary to reflect these changes in future export strategies to China.

This could be an opportunity for South Korea to secure international legitimacy amidst expectations from the U.S. side for South Korea to contribute resources to Hormuz.

South Korea is participating in dialogues led by France and shares the view of ensuring freedom of navigation through international solidarity. This is interpreted as a strategy to reduce the burden of independent deployment and seek a role within an international cooperation framework.

What message the two leaders will announce during this visit will be a key point of interest this week. There is also a possibility that South Korea's role in international security could be concretized through a joint statement.

Stability in the Strait of Hormuz is directly linked to global energy supply and economic security, so South Korea's active participation is expected to have a positive impact on the international community.

The additional upside potential for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares was analyzed in the context of memory semiconductor price recovery. To recover to the price levels of August 17th and 18th, an additional increase of about 6-8% from current stock prices is needed.

This indicates that despite the recent upward trend in the stock prices of major semiconductor companies, there is still room for recovery compared to previous highs. Additionally, share buybacks can act as a downside defense, limiting stock price declines.

Investors are anticipating an improvement in memory semiconductor industry conditions and price recovery.

Unlike typical export-competitive products, semiconductors have few substitutes, leading to high pricing power.

Therefore, even if the won strengthens, its negative impact on semiconductor exports is expected to be minimal. Instead, a long-term stronger won could positively influence domestic market purchasing power and improve investment sentiment.

This logic implies that the semiconductor sector may have a different valuation logic than other export-oriented stocks. The ability to expect stable earnings despite exchange rate volatility is a factor that enhances investment appeal.

Astra was trained using over 100,000 NVIDIA Grace Blackwells, achieving exponential progress in just four years.

Memory demand, particularly in the inference domain, is expected to surge. This means that semiconductor demand, which previously focused on the training phase, will now become even more crucial in the actual inference process where AI operates.

The importance of Physical AI in the development of AI robots is also being highlighted, which is expected to further accelerate the demand for high-performance semiconductors such as GPUs, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), and general memory.

These represent increases of 167% and 191%, respectively, from current stock prices.

Nomura based these target prices on the guaranteed earnings stability of the three memory semiconductor companies. This reflects a positive outlook for the future memory semiconductor market and high expectations for the technological competitiveness of these companies.

Therefore, in a period like now, when expectations for a recovery in the semiconductor market are growing, proactive investment is crucial.

If stock prices do not rise rapidly now and a period of correction continues, the momentum for stock price increases may weaken even when earnings genuinely improve later. This explains why investors must anticipate market changes and act accordingly.

Currently, the semiconductor market is influenced by a combination of positive factors: industry recovery and increased AI demand. Understanding these timely characteristics and formulating an investment strategy is important.

This is interpreted as a strategic and phased approach to expanding the digital asset market.

Within the securities industry, skeptical views coexist, noting that preparations for tokenized securities have been ongoing for 6-7 years but concrete implementation has been lacking. Therefore, proactive policy promotion by financial authorities is expected to play a significant role in market revitalization.

Tokenized securities have the potential to increase asset liquidity, reduce transaction costs, and create new investment opportunities. However, there are also criticisms that legal, technical, and institutional improvements are needed.

Robot actuators are core components that drive robot movements.

LG Electronics' move is interpreted as a strategy to secure competitiveness in the core component market of the robotics industry. Additionally, related component companies such as Robostar and 3hyun also saw đồng (Vietnamese currency) strength following the news from LG Electronics.

As the robot market accelerates, the importance of core components like actuators is growing. Attention is focused on what ripple effects LG Electronics' technology will have in the global market.

If these order discussions are successful, LG Electronics is expected to strengthen its position as a major player in the robotics industry.

This is due to the possibility of declining operating profit margins and concerns that Chinese memory manufacturers will accelerate their pursuit.

While specialty products like HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) are expected to defend earnings in the memory industry next year, it is believed that Samsung Electronics' dominant position will be difficult to replicate. Intensified competition could act as a burden on valuation.

A decrease in the exchange rate can limit the upper bound of export companies' profits. This is because a stronger won weakens export price competitiveness and reduces earnings when converting overseas sales into won.

Additionally, an analysis suggests that if the earnings per share (EPS) growth rate falls below 15%, the potential for stock price increase may be limited. This indicates that investors highly value a company's growth and profitability indicators.

Consequently, semiconductor companies must maintain high yields and strengthen hedging strategies against exchange rate fluctuations to secure stable performance.

An analysis suggests that market portfolio adjustment is necessary in September, considering the seasonal weakness in returns. As September typically shows negative monthly returns, appropriate action is crucial.

In particular, there is a need to prepare for risks that may arise before and after the U.S.-China summit scheduled for the 24th. Investors are advised to secure cash before Chuseok to prepare for uncertainty and consider a strategy to respond to a full market rally after Chuseok.

The assessment is that it is a rational approach to secure cash by realizing profits when the market is buoyant, and then re-enter investments once the market direction becomes clear.

This strategy will help manage short-term market volatility while not missing out on long-term investment opportunities.

This is interpreted as a move to explore changes in money supply measurement as digital assets gain increasing prominence in the financial system.

The report states that stablecoins are being considered for classification in M1 if used for payments and settlements, and in M2 if used for short-term investments. This is an attempt to integrate digital assets into traditional monetary aggregates based on their function and purpose.

However, the inclusion of these in monetary aggregates still faces institutional challenges, such as the issue of double-counting. There is also a call for a new monetary measurement framework that considers the characteristics of digital assets.

This report is viewed as part of the central bank's efforts to recognize the proliferation of digital assets and analyze their potential impact on monetary policy.