Interest Rate Hike Period: Secure Cash and Prudently Time Purchases

It is particularly recommended to sell in installments, divided into morning and afternoon, rather than selling all at once, and to increase the cash proportion to 30%.

Concerns are raised that if WTI exceeds $100, it could deliver a significant blow to the market, and if bond yields surpass 5%, market shock could become visible.

In recent days, a pattern of continuous decline followed by a late-day rebound has been observed. Although the market has held up well until now, the recent decline is being interpreted as a significant signal. The trend of the market gradually eroding, like a drizzle, is weakening, so it is necessary to carefully watch if this decline will intensify like a downpour.

The response to held stocks should be differentiated based on their trend direction. Stocks with a clear downward trend are primary candidates for liquidation, and it has been advised to liquidate downward-trending stocks for the past two weeks. Conversely, for stocks moving within a box range, it is better to respond after confirming whether the lower boundary is breached.

Even if the situation of each stock differs, in the absence of a clear alternative, it is recommended to liquidate them uniformly without distinguishing between types. It is deemed necessary to secure about 20-30% of the total portfolio in cash to prepare for market adjustments.

Furthermore, it is anticipated that legislative action on AI regulation will take at least 5-10 years or more, suggesting limited short-term market impact.

An analysis suggests that the impact of monopoly regulation issues on Big Tech companies' stock prices may be limited in the long term. Looking at past cases of Meta's monopoly regulation issues, even if stock prices fell when regulatory issues were implemented, they tended to maintain an upward trend in the long run. Therefore, rather than simply concluding that stock prices will fall forever due to regulatory issues alone, it is necessary to confirm the correlation with actual stock price movements.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang estimated that Astra's development cost approximately 800 billion to 1.2 trillion won. He announced plans to use an additional 400,000 GPUs, even though development is not yet fully complete. He also mentioned NVIDIA's $10 billion investment in Anthropic, emphasizing that the actual pace of corporate AI-related investments is not slowing down.

Amid the breakdown of high-level Middle East talks and the risk in the Strait of Hormuz causing oil prices to soar, the market reflected both factors, showing a downturn. Notably, major stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix experienced significant adjustments. The market is reacting complexly to multiple adverse factors rather than a single cause.

In the best-case scenario, purchasing could be considered after the BOJ decision on Friday afternoon, but otherwise, the purchase timing might need to be postponed until early next week.

Despite negative or neutral market outlooks, the stance to purchase stocks before Chuseok was maintained. However, this is contingent on confirming a genuine uptrend beyond just a rebound. It emphasized careful timing adjustment rather than indiscriminately participating in large-cap stocks like Samsung Electronics or Hynix, where individual investor demand is concentrated.

The prevailing opinion is that the Clarity Act is unlikely to pass. If it were to pass, funds from stablecoins would be legally mandated to purchase short-term U.S. Treasuries, presenting a scenario where the government could sell short-term Treasuries and use those funds to buy long-term Treasuries to stabilize bond yields. However, many anticipate difficulty in its passage due to former President Trump's conflict of interest issues, and the reliability of PolyMarket probability figures was also rated low.

This is because there is currently high issuance of bonds by hyperscaler groups, reducing demand for Treasuries, which could in turn depress corporate bond issuance. If Treasury yields fall, it is expected to positively impact growth sectors like semiconductors.