Trump Mentions Vanish in GOP Midterm Ads

In the early part of September, Republican campaign advertisements conspicuously omit any mention of Donald Trump, a significant departure from previous election cycles. Harry Enten highlighted that less than 1% of GOP ads reference Trump, contrasting sharply with 20% of Democratic ads that include his name.

This data raises pertinent questions about the Republican base's stance on Trump, suggesting a potential strategic pivot by candidates who may be sensing a shift in voter sentiment or aiming to broaden their appeal beyond the former president's core supporters.

However, Trump's net approval rating among non-MAGA Republicans plummeted to just plus seven points by September 2026, marking a significant 49-point shift away from the former president within this crucial demographic.

This erosion of support is accompanied by decreased motivation to vote, with only 46% of non-MAGA Republicans stating they are extremely motivated, compared to 71% of Democrats, indicating a potential drag on Republican turnout.

In the 2024 election, 99% of the MAGA Republican base cast their ballots for Donald Trump. In the 2024 election, Trump secured 99% of the MAGA GOP vote, a near-unanimous endorsement from his core supporters.

His current approval rating among the MAGA GOP remains robust at 98%, demonstrating that his most dedicated followers have not wavered in their backing. This strong approval extends to congressional races, with 98% of MAGA GOP supporters indicating their intent to vote for House Republican candidates.

Moreover, the motivation level for MAGA voters to turn out is 71%, matching the enthusiasm of Democrats, suggesting that this segment will be a highly engaged and reliable voting bloc for the GOP in the upcoming midterms.

Harry Enten noted this composition is crucial for understanding the party's current dynamics.

Donald Trump's overall approval rating among all Republicans has declined to 80%, a 14-point drop from his 94% support level against Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, indicating a broader erosion of his appeal even within his own party.

His current approval rating stands at 80% among the party faithful.

A significant segment of the Republican base is reevaluating their support for the former president, potentially impacting his influence on upcoming elections.

A historical comparison of Republican presidents' approval ratings among their base prior to midterm elections places Donald Trump at the bottom of the list. Harry Enten's analysis included Ronald Reagan, who had a 93% support rate.

George W. Bush and Dwight Eisenhower also showed stronger support, with 82% and 81% respectively. Trump's current 80% approval rating among Republicans places him in the weakest position compared to his modern GOP predecessors at a similar point in their terms.

The most significant issue for Donald Trump is not merely a decline in overall approval, but a substantial drop in the 'strongly approve' segment of the Republican base. Harry Enten observed that at the start of 2025, 71% of the GOP strongly approved of Trump.

This critical 'strongly approve' rating has now fallen to just 47%, representing a steep 24-point decline among his most fervent supporters. This erosion of his core base reflects a weakening of the intense loyalty that has historically defined his political power.

Economic issues, particularly inflation and gas prices, are identified as primary drivers behind the significant erosion of Donald Trump's base support. His net approval rating on inflation has collapsed by 65 points, moving from a positive 68 points to just plus three points.

Similarly, his net approval regarding fuel and gas prices has seen a dramatic fall from plus 51 points in June 2025 to a negative 12 points currently. This severe downturn in economic trust is a major reason for the weakening of his overall approval.

The combination of these negative sentiments on key economic indicators highlights how household financial concerns directly translate into declining political support for the former president among his once-loyal base.

Given the closely divided political landscape, any ebbing of support for Republicans, even if most still vote for the party, poses a significant problem, as Harry Enten noted.

Democratic voters overwhelmingly support their candidates by a 95-point margin, while Republican voters back their candidates by an 87-point margin. This 8-point difference in party support margins underscores the vulnerability of the GOP, where even small losses of base support can critically impact election outcomes.

Fox News polls show that more than 10% of this group are currently supporting Democratic candidates, with some figures as high as 14%.

This shift among a segment of the Republican-leaning electorate represents an 'absolute killer' for the GOP's chances, as these votes directly subtract from their base while adding to the opposition, significantly tightening competitive races.

Democrats are six points more likely to cast their ballots in 2026 than Republicans, reversing the historical trend where the GOP was more likely to vote in midterms.

This represents the largest Democratic lead in terms of certainty to vote in a pre-midterm cycle recorded in the 21st century. The shift puts the GOP at a potential disadvantage due to a highly energized Democratic base.

Such a substantial lead in voter enthusiasm can translate directly into higher turnout, giving Democratic candidates a crucial edge in closely contested races across the country.

In the 2024 election, Trump had secured a 15-point lead over Kamala Harris among these voters.

His net approval rating among pure independents has now plummeted to minus 71 points, marking an astounding 86-point swing away from him. This profound shift among independent voters is a key factor explaining why Republican candidates are actively distancing themselves from Trump in their campaign advertisements.

In the fall of 2024, Trump was trusted more than Kamala Harris on the economy by a 22-point margin among these voters.

Now, his net approval rating on the economy has fallen to minus 77 points, a significant reversal. Furthermore, a substantial 92% of pure independent voters disapprove of Trump's handling of gas prices, underscoring how these pocketbook issues contribute to his declining popularity and explain the Republican candidates' strategic avoidance of his name.