In the Age of AI, Intelligence Becomes Common; Vision and Ambition Become Scarce Resources

The development of agent AI, which can perform tasks, is creating a blue ocean where small and medium-sized enterprises can threaten the market position of large corporations. Historical data analysis shows that stock prices have seen an average rise after US midterm elections. Moving forward, capital movement from infrastructure companies to innovation-driven companies is expected to accelerate, and investment strategies should also be reorganized around such comprehensive innovation companies.

With the development of agent AI, individuals can utilize the knowledge and investment philosophy of specific experts through AI, much like having a personal assistant.

One can apply the investment principles of masters like Warren Buffett or Ray Dalio to AI to get evaluations of their invested stocks.

Following the emergence of MetaMuse, CPU-related stocks like Intel and AMD have shown an upward trend.

In an agent AI environment, 'orchestration,' which handles the efficient allocation of tasks and tokens, becomes crucial, emphasizing the role of the CPU.

Therefore, it is time to consider prioritizing investment in substrate companies like Samsung Electro-Mechanics rather than memory semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix.

The decline in stock prices of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is attributed more to the portfolio shift towards CPUs and unique supply and demand issues in the Korean market, rather than poor performance.

While US Micron's stock price remains robust, the decline only in Korea is mainly due to sales for capital gains tax avoidance at year-end.

Due to these influences, memory semiconductor stocks may remain weak until the end of the year but are highly likely to recover after January next year.

With announcements from major AI companies like OpenAI, Meta Muse, and Google Gemini scheduled, AI themes are likely to be at the center of the market.

Major political events such as the US midterm elections and APEC are scheduled for November, so the possibility of a rapid increase in risk is limited.

The rise in semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment companies is due to the visualization of performance linked to the surge in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) production and process investments.

The trend of HBM volume expansion is expected to continue until the first half of next year, which will critically impact the performance improvement of related companies.

Considering the trend of semiconductor factory expansions by companies like Samsung Electronics, investment in post-processing and PCB (Printed Circuit Board) sectors is advantageous, with a strategy focusing on the US for front-end processing and Korea for back-end processing.

September is a traditionally volatile period of decline for the stock market, and the decline in September can be a buying opportunity.

Past cases from 2018 and 2022 show a pattern where stock prices fell until September and then rebounded by year-end.

Historical data after US midterm elections indicates that stock prices have shown an average upward trend.

The triggers causing market declines varied each period. In 2018, the US-China trade war was the main cause, and in 2022, a sharp interest rate hike was the primary reason for decline.

However, despite these different triggers, the market showed a similar pattern of recovery when expectations of the end of the interest rate hike cycle formed towards year-end.

The market's expectation of 3.5 interest rate hikes is based on the assumption that international oil prices will remain near $100.

If international oil prices fall below $80, the number of rate hikes could be reduced to around 3, which would bring relief to the market.

While national debt is difficult to reduce, corporations can achieve extreme efficiency through AI technology, which significantly impacts asset allocation strategies.

Although rising bond yields will lead to discounted valuations, this is not a direct reason to avoid stock investments.

In the long term, the growth of AI-efficient companies is expected to make stocks more attractive than bonds.

Meta's rise to a leading position in the GPT competition and the rapid changes in technical metrics like Anthropic's Opus 5.5 demonstrate the fluidity of the AI market.

A trend of active capital movement from infrastructure-centric investments to innovation-driven companies is observed.

The current PBR of around 10 times indicates that downside risk is contained, and the panic market has ended, with a clear box range confirmed at a high of 15 times.

The current KOSPI PBR at around 10 times suggests that downside risk is quite limited.

This serves as a basis for judging that the market's panic phase has concluded, and gradual recovery rather than further sharp declines can be expected.

Particularly, the development of AI agents is expected to drive the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises and create new value.

It is necessary to direct capital towards this comprehensive innovation-driven power.

AI glasses are highly likely to emerge as a new hardware form factor in the future, and in that case, Meta is in a position to monopolize the market.

The need to shift capital flows to innovation-driven, comprehensive companies is raised.

Smartphone shipments are projected to decrease in 2026, but overall market revenue is expected to grow by 6% due to an increase in average selling price (ASP).

However, the rate of sales decline may exceed the ASP increase effect, necessitating the introduction of new devices like smart rings or AI glasses to overcome the limitations of passing on higher component costs.

The market for wearable devices equipped with AI agent functions is expected to expand, providing new growth momentum to complement the stagnation of the smartphone market.

As seen in the collaboration between Apple and Hermès, the combination of IT technology and fashion expertise is expected to serve as a major market momentum in 2027-2028.

Like the Apple and Hermès collaboration, the collaboration between companies with fashion expertise and IT technology companies is essential for market success.

A significant increase in collaboration momentum between the IT and fashion industries is expected from the second half of 2027 to 2028.