Lee Jae-myung's Government Won't Last: Historical Flow and the Limits of a Non-Traditional Politician Are the Main Reasons

Ice Factory said that for the past year, it has continually been asked by many people: "The Lee Jae-myung government won't end. How would you even bring Lee down now? The election system is already under control, and Lee is invincible. What basis do you have for thinking the world will change again?" The channel pushed back against this common view, stressing that its claims are not false hope but are grounded in historical context.

Emphasizing that the world tends to turn in cycles when viewed through history, it forecast that Lee Jae-myung will find it difficult to keep his hold on power continuously. Even when analyzing the present situation, it argues that the Lee government is unlikely to last long.

Ice Factory predicted that Lee Jae-myung's end will not be smooth and will conclude in a very miserable way. It explained that such outcomes can be found in many historical examples. While addressing this point, the channel said it wants to convey to viewers the direction the ongoing struggle is heading and how worthwhile that struggle is.

The channel explained that viewers seem to misunderstand the donation account it shares below its videos. It said that for eight years it ran the channel without separately accepting donations or voluntary subscription fees, but that it is now operating in what it literally calls 'survival mode,' going beyond earning revenue to cover operating costs. It candidly admitted that, to keep the channel running through these hard times, it is relying on viewer donations, and expressed gratitude.

The channel quoted a line written in a book by Mr. Se In-ho, whom it admires: "Based on now, based on the present, do not predict the future in advance." It stressed that this advice frequently appears in books by successful people, and explained that one should guard against prejudging the future while being absorbed only in the current situation.

Even if an individual stays the same, society keeps changing, and just one change of government can make the people who gain opportunities and the people who lose them different. It said countless factors such as stocks, crypto, the real estate market, and individual industries can change unexpectedly, and added that there are many unpredictable variables, including currency value, national circumstances, and even personal matters like emigration or marriage. The channel said, "I feel it's true that you can't see an inch ahead of your life unless you live it, and even fortune-tellers can't get it right."

The channel said the reason it keeps going without giving up now is that it does not think based on the present. Honestly, it said, if one judged only by the present, even asking viewers for donations would be pointless. Yet the channel said it holds the expectation that the situation will improve, and the belief that the fight it is now waging is right and that the world will change in that direction. It added that it hopes new opportunities will come, and that people who have evaluated its value and abilities might give it another chance. Drawing on past experience, it said it holds a positive expectation that the rest of its life can change, and therefore does not judge by the present.

This serves as the basis for stressing that it is hard to expect a government to last forever.

It recalled that after the Kim Young-sam government, President Kim Dae-jung's popularity was beyond imagination, and that people felt the world had changed. It noted that President Roh Moo-hyun also enjoyed enormous popularity early in his term, yet power eventually changed hands and Lee Myung-bak took office, stressing the history of constant government change.

Looking back at each period, the channel stressed that only a small number of people predicted that the world would change this way. Most people were trapped in the current situation and could not see the future, which it said shows how difficult it is to predict government change.

This suggests that pushing reckless policies for political ends can bring about a national crisis.

In response to this claim, it asked, "Is Lee Jae-myung a tradition?" and stressed that even his supporters would not be able to answer properly.

It described him as someone who was active in the Gyeonggi East alliance, gained popularity through 'politics for politics' sake,' and reached his current position through elections, assessing him as "neither this nor that." In other words, it argues that Lee Jae-myung is far from the legitimacy of the progressive camp.

It argued that a person who does not follow traditional methods or lineage has no choice but to overreach when trying to seize power. It warned that to cover these overreaches, such people end up acting erratically, and this leads to national-level overreach that can cause a major disaster. It stressed that such cases are clearly recorded in history.

Regarding the exchange rate in particular, it pointed out that Korea currently finds it difficult to conclude currency swap agreements and that communication with the United States is not going smoothly, stressing the economic difficulties.

The channel said this issue has risen to the surface, with even the People Power Party mentioning it, and that it is no exaggeration to say Korea itself "smells rotten." Beyond election fraud, it cited the sending of money to North Korea, legal risks, economic problems, and a stock market so chaotic that one can hardly tell which country's market it is, arguing that the various risks associated with Lee Jae-myung have reached a serious level.

Because an entrenched vested-interest cartel exists, breaking into that position requires a powerful blow, and such a powerful blow always comes with side effects, it analyzed. This was presented as the logical basis for explaining Lee Jae-myung's current situation and way of acting.

It made clear that this is nearly 100% true historically, and that a perfect person does not exist.

In the channel's view, the 'perfect image' placed on Lee Jae-myung is nothing more than an illusion.