US Stock Market Decline Persists Under Long-Term Interest Rate Pressure… Consumer Slowdown Realized as Per Walmart Indicators

The US Treasury's bond buyback policy has failed to drive down long-term interest rates, only managing to prevent further upward pressure, which has contributed to the decline in the US stock market. Manager Seong Ha-jun explained that the buyback is not a measure to lower interest rates but to prevent further sharp increases. He analyzed that amid the sustained surge in oil prices from the Middle East, the US stock market is showing a cautious stance, seeking to verify its fundamentals.

Amid differentiated movements between the US stock market and the semiconductor sector, anticipation for SK Hynix's shareholder return policy is being quite positively assessed, especially in the US market. This has led to an upward trend in SK Hynix's ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), which is interpreted as reflecting a positive perception of domestic semiconductor companies.

The US national debt has surpassed $40 trillion, exacerbating fiscal deficit issues. The increase in corporate bond issuance due to expanded AI-related investments, coupled with national bond issuance to resolve the national fiscal deficit, is creating competition for limited market funds. Manager Seong Ha-jun pointed out that this situation is a structural problem that entrenches a high-interest rate structure and predicted that upward pressure on interest rates would continue due to the limitations of market funds.

As unfavorable macroeconomic indicators persist, the importance of securing cash in investment strategy is being emphasized. Manager Seong Ha-jun advised that now is the time to secure cash by realizing some profits when they occur.

Manager Seong Ha-jun emphasized that for the market to stabilize, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices must fall to the $68-$72 range. With current oil prices remaining high at around $86, he added a warning about a vicious cycle of high oil prices-high inflation-interest rate hikes-consumption decline.

Despite Walmart's sales growth, same-store sales growth came in at 2.6%, below expectations, confirming that the US consumption slowdown is becoming a reality. In particular, the increase in purchases per customer slowed to 1.1%, leading Manager Seong Ha-jun to analyze that reduced spending power could lead to a potential economic recession.

Recent US economic indicators show strength, with the Philadelphia manufacturing index greatly exceeding expectations at 47.4 (vs. 25) and new unemployment claims falling. However, this economic strength paradoxically provides the Federal Reserve (Fed) with justification not to easily cut rates, fueling concerns about further rate hikes. Manager Seong Ha-jun pointed out that if economic indicators continue to be better than expected, the market will have no choice but to lower its expectations for interest rate cuts.

As AI infrastructure grows, companies that received high valuations are now feeling the burden of fundraising, emphasizing the importance of companies with strong performance and cash generation capabilities. Focusing on shareholder returns and cash generation capabilities of memory companies, it was analyzed that differentiated trends could occur between Nvidia and memory companies. Manager Seong Ha-jun suggested that even in the AI semiconductor market, selective investment based on corporate fundamentals is necessary, not indiscriminate investment.

Amid the upward trend of the MSCI Korea Index, analysis suggests that even if the domestic stock market index fluctuates, the relative strength of the semiconductor sector is likely to be maintained. While profit-taking sales may occur after Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rise, considering the trend of US ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), there is no expected damage to the semiconductor industry itself.

Manager Seong Ha-jun suggested focusing on energy security-related stocks rather than theme-based stocks sensitive to high oil prices, such as oil refining and shipping stocks. He explained that nuclear power, LNG, and power facility-related stocks are preferred due to their relatively lower price volatility and guaranteed long-term demand, presenting them as alternatives for stable portfolio construction.

As a market response strategy, it was suggested that confirming foreign buying activity at the beginning of the trading day is essential. It is necessary to check whether the 10-year Treasury yield stabilizes below 4.7% and WTI oil prices stabilize below $86. Manager Seong Ha-jun recommended that if foreign buying is not aggressive, maintain a wait-and-see approach, and only consider a staggered approach after 2 PM if support levels are secured after absorption of selling pressure.

Manager Seong Ha-jun viewed that if the two semiconductor giants, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, undergo correction, it could be an opportunity for new purchases. He also emphasized that secondary batteries (especially ESS-related), robots, nuclear power, and power facilities should be approached from a fundamental perspective, focusing on stocks supported by corporate performance and cash flow.

A significant policy announcement related to LNG combined cycle power plant investment is scheduled for early September, drawing attention. Manager Seong Ha-jun also encouraged participation in live trading through a VIP membership event (2 months + 30-day extension) and announced that the Maeil Broadcasting Network 'Investment Compass' program is scheduled for 10:30 AM.