China's Belt and Road Initiative on the verge of collapse… rotting from within

Recent large-scale floods in Nepal have resulted in thousands of casualties and missing persons. China has been criticized for not adequately sharing information about the dangers in the upstream areas, which has been cited as a major cause of the disaster.

This lack of information sharing is acting as a primary factor in spreading anti-China sentiment within Nepal.

Through this, China seeks economic prosperity in the Tibetan minority regions and aims to expand its influence into the Indian subcontinent.

Director Yoo Kwang-jong explained China's strategic perspective, stating, "China views the Nepal region as a benign project. It sees it as an exit point for the Belt and Road Initiative and considers it a very strategic region."

China plans a railway project, including a massive tunnel through the Himalayas, but has not yet broken ground. Concurrently, it is pushing for the construction of a giant hydroelectric dam three times the size of the Three Gorges Dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in the Himalayan water system.

Such large-scale civil engineering projects raise concerns about exacerbating environmental risks in the geologically unstable Himalayan region. Director Yoo Kwang-jong stated, "They are tunneling through the Himalayas, a very long tunnel. They have been trying to do that but haven't started construction yet. It's an enormous project, and as a preliminary step, there's a river called Yarlung Tsangpo, part of the Himalayan water system. They are building a massive dam there."

As the cause of the Nepal flood disaster is investigated, there is a high possibility that the problems of dangerous construction projects China is pouring into the region will be exposed. This will amplify suspicions about the impact of China's construction, beyond climate change.

Director Yoo Kwang-jong analyzed, "When the causes are explored after stabilization, China's problems will likely emerge. As dangerous construction projects China is pouring into this region are revealed, the backlash from Nepal, which suffered direct damage, and negative sentiments towards China from Southwest Asian countries will begin to intensify. Therefore, the Belt and Road Initiative is highly likely to suffer a major blow this time."

The U.S. is leveraging Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to pressure allies to join tariffs against China. This is interpreted as a strategy to block China's exports to the U.S., deepening its economic isolation.

Specifically, the U.S. is using Canada as an example to compel allies to join the anti-China bloc. Director Yoo Kwang-jong commented, "Even with allies, how close are Canada and the U.S.? Physically close, almost like brother nations, yet they trample them. This seems to be a scary signal. It seems to contain a U.S. threat that if you don't quickly enter our shadow, this bloc, you will be mercilessly trampled."

This U.S. pressure is putting China, which is suffering from sluggish domestic demand, in a double bind as its exports are also blocked.

The U.S. is reportedly considering strong sanctions against Canada, including a 7.5% tariff. This is interpreted as a warning against Canada's pro-China, anti-U.S. independent stance since Prime Minister Trudeau.

Director Yoo Kwang-jong stated, "The U.S. will probably deal with Canada harshly this time. And this is not an isolated case for Canada. It's a message shown to all countries, including Korea and Japan, that need to follow the overall trend and flow of the U.S.-centric international order," emphasizing that these sanctions are a message to countries like Korea and Japan that adhere to the U.S.-led international order.

Beijing and Shanghai, China's two major economic hubs, have long been in fierce economic and political competition and antagonism. Director Yoo Kwang-jong explained, "Beijing thinks, 'What do those guys have besides making money?' but both are actually strong. So, everything from house prices to apartment prices was competitive. And it's probably the same now."

Currently, both cities are simultaneously experiencing severe domestic economic collapse, including falling real estate prices and shopping mall closures.

This implies securing children, women, and valuables in an emergency.

Director Yoo Kwang-jong explained the escape psychology pervasive in Chinese society, stating, "People prepare 'se-yeon.' This means they are always ready to flee. Think about it. When something breaks out, unprepared people don't know what to do first. Chinese people look for their 'se-yeon' first."

As economic stagnation and social anxiety intensify, the outflow of capital and human resources abroad is accelerating.

'Anta' (安踏), using the characters for 'safe' (安) and 'step' (踏), is interpreted to mean successfully settling overseas.

Director Yoo Kwang-jong noted, "The name 'Anta' (安踏) means 'safe step.' So, they successfully stepped over there. And Chinese reports are now making a big deal out of Anta doing 'anta'," suggesting that the behavior of companies safely moving assets and bases overseas is becoming an important topic in Chinese media.

The exodus from major cities like Beijing is analyzed as a result of a combination of structural economic deterioration and psychological anxiety.

An unprecedented reshuffle of about 30 Central Committee members occurred at the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. While ostensibly aimed at eradicating corruption, the primary goal is to bolster President Xi Jinping's loyalists and prepare the decision-making structure for his fourth term.

Director Yoo Kwang-jong analyzed, "I think this is a strategic move for a fourth term. It's about replacing these people with new ones who will act as rubber stamps for Xi Jinping's desired re-election," suggesting that Xi Jinping's power remains stable and unshaken.

Through this reshuffle, President Xi Jinping's direct rule is assessed to have been further consolidated.

Currently, China's power structure appears very stable, centered on Xi Jinping's one-man rule. This rigid structure creates an environment where no dissenting votes can emerge, increasing the likelihood of Xi Jinping's fourth term.

Director Yoo Kwang-jong commented, "The power structure seems stable now, so there shouldn't be any noise about a fourth term, right? How dare a dissenting vote appear when an emperor is smoothly re-elected?" explaining that unlike past rumors of purges, the solidity of Xi Jinping's power is now further emphasized.

It is suggested that military personnel with extensive practical experience may have intervened in military reorganization processes, such as a Taiwan invasion.

Director Yoo Kwang-jong stated, "It's not that Zhang Youxia even defied Xi Jinping and was dismissed; rather, in the process of military reorganization, such as a Taiwan invasion, Zhang Youxia is someone with practical experience, and there were probably dissenting opinions," suggesting that the rigid decision-making structure that no longer tolerates internal disagreements, unlike in the past, is the background to this personnel change.

This means one person's decisions have an absolute impact on the entire nation, making it difficult to incorporate diverse opinions.

Director Yoo Kwang-jong pointed out, "That is not tolerated now. What makes me most uneasy when I look at China's power is the rigidity of its decision-making structure, where one person's word is final. This was clearly seen in the thorough lockdowns during COVID-19, which were too rigid," explaining that this rigidity was clearly evident in the COVID-19 lockdown policy.

China's decision-making structure, having lost its reform and opening-up momentum, is seen as losing its dynamism.

China has always had two forces: a 'centripetal force' that seeks to converge around the Party and Xi Jinping, and a 'centrifugal force' that seeks to move away from the center. Director Yoo Kwang-jong explained, "There have always been two forces in China: the appeal of a centripetal force to gather around the Party, around Xi Jinping, and a centrifugal force structure that seeks to be somewhat separate from the center."

This aligns with the traditional perception that 'the mountains are high and the emperor is far away' (山高皇帝遠), and concerns about system instability are growing as the central government's momentum wanes and the economy stagnates.

In contrast to China's outwardly strong power, internally, money is not circulating, youth unemployment is skyrocketing, and the country is facing severe deflation. This economic crisis deepens the generational divide (daigou) in China's population structure and exacerbates intergenerational conflict.

Director Yoo Kwang-jong pointed out, "The outward strength looks very strong. But in fact, money isn't circulating. And unemployment is incredibly high, and a generational gap is emerging in China. 'Daigou' refers to the generational conflict, and a deep chasm is growing significantly."

Concerns are being raised that the Chinese Communist Party's control could weaken if economic performance falters.

Uyghurs have a history of establishing an independent state called East Turkestan, allowing for solidarity with Central Asian countries, and Tibet also faces complex issues.

The culmination of these problems is Taiwan. Director Yoo Kwang-jong explained, "Uyghurs have a history of establishing a country called East Turkestan and can form solidarity with Central Asian countries, and Tibet also has complex issues. The final culmination is Taiwan. China threatens invasion because it fears Taiwan that much."

The very existence of Taiwan poses a political threat to the Chinese Communist Party regime, thus emphasizing the importance of united front tactics through figures like Wang Huning, Chairman of the CPPCC.

Indiscriminate acts of violence frequently occur in China but are often not widely reported due to government control. Recently, a new buzzword, '19,000' (1만9), has gained popularity, reflecting public sentiment.

Director Yoo Kwang-jong explained, "Random violence actually happens frequently. It's just not widely known due to China's controlled media. The recent popular buzzword '19,000' reflects the reality that if you help an elderly person, you might end up having to pay money to their family."

This buzzword reflects the severe level of social distrust where good deeds can lead to disadvantages.