The stock market is expected to show significant volatility this week due to the simultaneous expiration of futures and options and the release of U.S. inflation figures, requiring a cautious approach to investment strategy.
Both markets saw foreign and institutional selling, causing the KOSPI to fall below 7,000 points. Today is 'Quadruple Witching Day,' when futures and options expire simultaneously, which could increase supply and demand volatility. Even stocks that showed strength in the morning could decline in the afternoon.
Supply and demand volatility on expiration day does not inherently mean that company values or market conditions are deteriorating. Look for bottom-fishing opportunities by checking foreign futures and program trading flows. It is advantageous to focus on stocks with strong earnings, orders, and policy momentum.
In the morning, refrain from aggressive buying and maintain a cautious stance. After 2 PM, it is crucial to observe how foreign futures and program trading flows are entering the market. Identify and utilize opportunities to buy low among declining stocks.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released sequentially ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Depending on these indicators, not only the interest rate outlook but also the stock market direction could change significantly. The extent of inflation relative to market expectations will be a crucial variable.
Currently, the market generally leans towards a 60-40 probability of a Fed rate hike. In contrast, 70% of economists anticipate a rate freeze, indicating a divergence of opinions. Market caution regarding inflation is heightened.
If inflation data comes in below market expectations, the most positive scenario for the market will unfold. U.S. Treasury yields could fall, and dollar strength might ease. This is expected to have a generally positive impact on growth stocks.
The PPI, to be released this evening, and the CPI, to be released tomorrow evening, must be closely watched. It is especially important to focus on core inflation indicators rather than headline inflation. If the figures meet or fall below expectations, the likelihood of an FOMC rate freeze increases.
Robotis has recorded a 38% increase since its buy recommendation on August 26. In Q2, sales grew by 95% year-over-year to 15.4 billion KRW, and operating profit reached 2 billion KRW, successfully turning profitable. Actuator shipments in the first half of the year reached 200,000 units, approaching last year's annual total. Notably, sales in North America surged by 142% and in China by 154%, proving its growth in international markets. The company plans to expand its Uzbekistan production base by 2028. Robotis's second target price is set at 390,000 KRW.
SemiFive is an official Design Solution Partner (DSP) of Samsung Electronics Foundry, connecting the entire process from design to packaging, testing, and mass production of semiconductor chips desired by customers. It is responsible for designing and mass-producing customized chips for AI startups and data centers. The company has secured stable growth drivers by signing a supply contract for HyperXcel data center AI inference accelerators until 2028. New orders in the first half of this year totaled 42.3 billion KRW, already exceeding the full-year orders of the previous year. SemiFive's buy price is the current market price, the target price is 20,500 KRW, and the stop-loss price is 13,000 KRW.
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