Singapore FM Warns Against Raw Power Politics

Raw power, size, and coercion increasingly dictate interstate relations, a trend that poses a clear and present danger to smaller nations like Singapore.

Interstate relations are increasingly dictated by raw power, with outcomes based on a nation's size, leverage, and coercion, which presents a direct threat to smaller states like Singapore.

Multilateralism provides predictability and constrains the capricious exercise of power, as even big powers require partners to secure their long-term national interests.

Multilateralism provides predictability, constrains the capricious exercise of power, and allows for maximum autonomy even when power distribution is unequal.

Dr. Balakrishnan highlighted the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that transit passage is a right, not a privilege, vital for global trade and security.

Disruptions in such strategic straits lead to higher energy prices, broken supply chains, and threaten the established legal architecture for freedom of navigation.

Multilateral trade has been a significant driver of economic growth, boosting global GDP by an estimated 6.8% and providing substantial benefits to low-income countries.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) system is currently fracturing due to the increased use of tariffs and supply chain restrictions as tools for economic coercion.

Dr. Balakrishnan warned that the erosion of global trade rules would result in economic instability and higher costs for all nations.

A July meeting in Auckland, involving 19 small to medium-sized nations, focused on reducing trade frictions and enhancing supply chain resilience.

These regional efforts are not a retreat from multilateralism but rather flexible, pragmatic steps to sustain cooperation until broader global agreements become feasible.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the most urgent frontier requiring new international rules and institutions.

The first fundamental risk of AI is the loss of control over autonomous systems, which could have severe consequences.

A second risk involves rogue actors potentially using AI to develop bioweapons or other weapons of mass destruction or disruption, posing a global security threat.

Thirdly, domestic social, political, and economic disruptions caused by AI are already beginning to emerge, necessitating urgent attention.

He argued that shared rules, traffic lights, and seat belts are crucial for safe operation when AI systems extend beyond local environments or cross international boundaries.

Productivity gains from AI are contingent on equipping workers and businesses with the necessary skills to deploy this technology safely and at scale.

Dr. Balakrishnan posed a critical question: whether human beings or AI should control the nuclear button, highlighting the profound implications of autonomous systems.

He identified 'trust' as the most scarce resource in the current global landscape, more so than legal frameworks or technological capabilities.

Technology is increasingly becoming an arena for strategic competition, even as global cooperation is urgently needed to address shared challenges.

Dr. Balakrishnan advocated for a UN framework convention to establish international safeguards for AI, leveraging the UN's unique position as an apex international institution with universal membership.

He suggested creating an international institution for AI verification, similar to the IAEA for nuclear energy or the ITU for technical standards.

Finland and Norway were cited as leading countries that recently called for robust safety measures for frontier AI models, demonstrating a proactive approach to AI governance.