Lee Jae-myung's Approval Rating Crisis, Even in Kim Eo-jun's Poll, Records 83.4% Negative Evaluation Among Those in Their 20s

Even in a public opinion poll conducted by Kim Eo-jun's side, Democratic Party of Korea leader Lee Jae-myung's approval rating barely reached 40%, with more negative evaluations than positive ones. Especially among those in their 20s (aged 18 to 29), negative evaluations reached 83.4% compared to 15.7% positive. Among those in their 30s, negative evaluations were 70.1% compared to 27.6% positive, and among those in their 40s, negative evaluations also constituted a majority.

The proportion of responses indicating 'doing very poorly' is analyzed as a key indicator of the departure of Lee Jae-myung's support base. In a Realmeter survey, responses of 'doing very poorly' for Lee Jae-myung recorded 40%, and in the 'Opinion Poll Flower' survey, it recorded 44%. Such strong negative evaluations indicate that respondents have clear reasons and motivations, and thus, positive evaluations will not easily emerge until those reasons are resolved.

The decline in Lee Jae-myung's approval rating is analyzed as fundamentally caused by the alienation of public sentiment due to policy failures, not ideological solidarity. Strong disappointment and anger over overall policies, including real estate policies, youth policies, job policies, KOSPI policies, and foreign and security policies, are affecting approval ratings. Analysis suggests that public aversion and anger toward Lee Jae-myung's policies themselves are the main reasons, rather than ideological conflicts over specific issues as was seen in the past Jo Guk scandal.

The Moon Jae-in administration and the Lee Jae-myung administration show fundamental differences in the nature and cohesion of their support bases. During the Moon Jae-in administration, a 'concrete support base' was formed based on a strong sense of kinship as the legitimate successor to former President Roh Moo-hyun, maintaining approval ratings in the 40s even at the end of its term. In contrast, the Lee Jae-myung administration, despite being just over a year in power, shows signs of a breakdown in its concrete support base, with even the core supporters in their 40s wavering. Lee Jae-myung is evaluated as lacking the momentum to firmly unite his supporters due to weakened internal cohesion from factional conflicts (non-Lee faction) and other issues.