Eighth market briefing of the year
Jump to 0:04This is the eighth monthly market update webinar, tracking how the year's forecasts have played out.
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Crypto Still in Early Stages Despite Explosive Gains, Market Briefing Shows
Year-end market forecast targets 8,000 for indexes as yields surge globally, but strategists see the crypto rally barely begun.
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Year unfolding as expected despite headwinds
Jump to 0:13The year has progressed in line with forecasts the strategy team made at the start, despite various market headwinds.
Rising yields emerge as August's central worry
Jump to 0:37Yields have been surging, building what strategists identify as the next wall of worry for markets in the month ahead. The surge comes as August typically brings lighter trading volume, which can amplify price moves.
Long-term yields hit multi-decade highs across major economies
Jump to 1:10The yield surge is not confined to the United States. US 30-year yields are hitting 30-year highs. In Germany, 15-year yields have reached record highs. Japan is seeing 30-year highs in its long-term yields. Both the UK and France are posting multi-decade highs. This abrupt move higher in long-term yields is occurring globally, across all major developed economies.
Index target climbs from 7,300 to 8,000 as year progresses
Jump to 1:36The strategy team began the year projecting the market would rise to at least 7,300. As the year unfolded, that target was revised upward to 7,700. Now, with the current trajectory, the team is thinking 8,000. The forecasts have absorbed multiple bearish calls along the way—warnings about Iran conflict, AI apocalypse, and other risks—yet the index continues tracking toward the upper estimates.
8,000 is a necessary threshold before the next phase
Jump to 2:00The 8,000 level is not presented as a ceiling but as a necessary milestone. Strategists view touching 8,000 first as essential before considering what happens next in the market cycle.
Gridlock between parties historically supports market performance
Jump to 2:14Markets tend to perform better when political power is divided—when the house and senate are controlled by different parties. This structural gridlock has historically been supportive for market outcomes.
Filibuster rule locks in structural political gridlock
Jump to 2:35Gridlock has been a persistent feature of the last three administrations, partly because of the filibuster rule in the Senate. For the Senate to pass legislation that is veto-proof or filibuster-proof, it requires 60 senators to support it. No single party currently holds 60 seats in the Senate, meaning any major legislation requires bipartisan support or faces obstruction.
Crypto advancing despite shifting regulatory framework
Jump to 3:04Cryptocurrency is moving forward regardless of regulatory uncertainty. The proposed Clarity Act, which would have established a national body to oversee all crypto regulation, has stalled. Instead, regulation is proceeding through existing rule-making processes and existing courts. Crypto continues to advance in this environment without the centralized regulatory framework that was once being debated.
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