Crypto Still in Early Stages Despite Explosive Gains, Market Briefing Shows

This is the eighth monthly market update webinar, tracking how the year's forecasts have played out.

The year has progressed in line with forecasts the strategy team made at the start, despite various market headwinds.

Yields have been surging, building what strategists identify as the next wall of worry for markets in the month ahead. The surge comes as August typically brings lighter trading volume, which can amplify price moves.

The yield surge is not confined to the United States. US 30-year yields are hitting 30-year highs. In Germany, 15-year yields have reached record highs. Japan is seeing 30-year highs in its long-term yields. Both the UK and France are posting multi-decade highs. This abrupt move higher in long-term yields is occurring globally, across all major developed economies.

The strategy team began the year projecting the market would rise to at least 7,300. As the year unfolded, that target was revised upward to 7,700. Now, with the current trajectory, the team is thinking 8,000. The forecasts have absorbed multiple bearish calls along the way—warnings about Iran conflict, AI apocalypse, and other risks—yet the index continues tracking toward the upper estimates.

Strategists view touching 8,000 first as essential before considering what happens next in the market cycle.

Markets tend to perform better when political power is divided—when the house and senate are controlled by different parties. This structural gridlock has historically been supportive for market outcomes.

For the Senate to pass legislation that is veto-proof or filibuster-proof, it requires 60 senators to support it. No single party currently holds 60 seats in the Senate, meaning any major legislation requires bipartisan support or faces obstruction.

Cryptocurrency is moving forward regardless of regulatory uncertainty. The proposed Clarity Act, which would have established a national body to oversee all crypto regulation, has stalled. Instead, regulation is proceeding through existing rule-making processes and existing courts. Crypto continues to advance in this environment without the centralized regulatory framework that was once being debated.