Global Nuclear Capacity Tripling by 2050 Demands Urgent Action

Countries categorized as 'restarters' possess prior experience in nuclear generation but have had limited recent build programs. These nations must leverage their existing industry capabilities to restart and deliver new nuclear projects effectively. Dr. Jonathan Cobb, Senior Programme Lead at the World Nuclear Association, cited Argentina and Japan as examples of countries that fall into this category.

These nations are progressing toward their 'first concrete' pouring, marking significant milestones in their nuclear development. Bangladesh, Turkey, Egypt, UAE, and Poland are prominent examples of countries in this category, demonstrating their commitment to introducing nuclear power.

These nations are in the preliminary stages of planning and policy development, aiming to establish the necessary frameworks before moving into a build phase.

They have successful series build programs already in place and are generally on track to meet their stated nuclear capacity targets. These nations represent approximately 300 gigawatts of projected new capacity, indicating their robust contribution to global nuclear expansion.

Many cases show the scale at which they are currently building reactors will not be enough, leading to low target achievability scores due to significant scale gaps.

Newcomer countries score particularly well in project readiness due to their active engagement in initiating build programs, as they are just beginning this phase. In contrast, candidate countries display mixed results, with their readiness varying significantly depending on the timeline and specifics of their stated nuclear energy targets.

Pace setters continue to be the strongest performers globally. Expanders must develop larger project pipelines to achieve their ambitious targets. Restarters need to effectively leverage their existing industry capabilities. For newcomers, initial project readiness is improving, and the focus must now shift to achieving even harder delivery targets for subsequent projects to build upon their initial expertise.

The core challenge in achieving global nuclear targets lies in converging ambitious aspirations with the institutional capacity to finance and deliver projects. To address this gap, twelve comprehensive policy recommendations have been developed, covering areas such as policy integration, investment mobilization, and regulatory efficiency. These recommendations are designed to help countries meet their targets effectively.

Governments must integrate nuclear energy into long-term energy and industrial strategies, recognizing its vital contribution to meeting national policy goals. This integration will establish stable policy frameworks essential for growth. Furthermore, it is critical to mobilize public, private, and multilateral financial institutions to ensure robust investment in nuclear projects.

Regulators require enhanced expertise and resources to effectively oversee new and emerging nuclear technologies. Extending the operational lifetimes of existing reactors represents one of the lowest-cost and fastest ways to achieve additional low-carbon generation. The current global fleet stands at 423 gigawatts gross, and maximizing its potential through lifetime extensions is a key strategy for increasing capacity.

The repeat deployment of mature nuclear designs offers the fastest route to scaling up nuclear capacity, while research, development, licensing, and demonstration efforts can support newer technologies and bring them to commercial deployment. Early investment in uranium exploration and enrichment is crucial due to long lead times in the fuel cycle. Governments should also remove barriers to reprocessing to facilitate closed fuel cycles, enhancing fuel security and sustainability.

Transitioning from individual projects to standardized programs is vital for reducing risk, utilizing standardized designs, clear delivery models, early supply chain engagement, and coordinated procurement. This approach facilitates learning transfer and enhances efficiency. Workforce development is also critical, necessitating significant efforts in reskilling existing personnel and promoting international mobility to meet growing demands.

Maximizing the potential of the existing nuclear fleet is an immediate priority, alongside the implementation of strategic policy reforms. Fifty country performance reviews are slated for publication by the end of September, providing detailed insights into national readiness and pathways forward.