Bitcoin Surges 6% on Easing US Interest Rate Hike Concerns

Bitcoin prices rose approximately 6% in a single day, reaching a four-month high since May. The Bitcoin market is currently undergoing some adjustment after this rapid ascent.

The biggest factor behind this Bitcoin surge is the easing of concerns about US benchmark interest rate hikes. Specifically, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's statement that he would be willing to support a rate freeze if evidence of easing price pressures emerged sent a positive signal to the market. Furthermore, US weekly jobless claims, at 206,000, did not significantly deviate from expectations, indicating stable employment figures.

Following Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's remarks, the likelihood of a September rate freeze significantly increased. According to FedWatch, the probability of a September rate freeze surged from 36.8% the previous day to 49.5% in one day, now approaching 50%. This demonstrates that comments from Fed members, who previously held hawkish stances, supporting a freeze are having a major impact on the market.

Within the Federal Reserve, a tight standoff continues between those advocating for interest rate hikes and those supporting a freeze. Currently, five members are cited as advocating for hikes: Lorie Logan, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, and Michael Barr. Conversely, three members supporting a rate freeze include Michelle Bowman, John Williams, and Christopher Waller, who recently spoke.

It is very rare to see such a tight divergence of opinions among Fed members less than two weeks before a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Typically, opinions tend to converge without significant differences, but the current 5-to-4 standoff is considered an unusual situation as the Fed's policy decision approaches.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller yesterday stated that he sees signs of deflation in price trends and would be willing to support a rate freeze if downward price pressures are clearly confirmed. His remarks significantly contributed to raising market expectations for interest rate cuts.

Even though the probability of a rate hike has shifted to 50-50, Bitcoin prices had already risen before this probability change occurred. This shows that the market tends to front-run price changes in anticipation of major economic indicators or policy shifts. The upcoming non-farm payrolls data is also expected to show a similar pre-reflection.

One of the remaining major factors in the Bitcoin market is growing anticipation for the passage of the Clarity Act. Reports recently emerged that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman made remarks supporting the bill's passage, which the market is interpreting positively. The SEC Chairman reiterated guidelines for rule-making (Regulation Crypto) and indicated that discussions would resume after Congress reconvenes.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's remarks on a rate freeze come with the condition of 'if inflation indicators are properly confirmed,' requiring caution. Since he set the condition of confirming downward inflation pressure without clear figures or criteria, future FOMC decisions may be made based on Fed members' subjective interpretations. This could act as a factor adding uncertainty to the market.

Next week, the market should focus on major economic data releases and legislative discussions. In particular, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is scheduled to be released next Thursday, which could significantly influence the Fed's interest rate policy decisions. Additionally, discussions on the Clarity Act will continue as Congress reconvenes, necessitating ongoing market monitoring.

The recent sharp rise in the yen's value is impacting global financial markets, including causing a sharp decline in Korea's KOSPI. This could increase the likelihood of a yen carry trade unwind (liquidation), requiring careful monitoring. Specifically, the speed of exchange rate fluctuations acts as a key risk measurement indicator, and rapid changes can cause significant shocks to the market.

Bitcoin price is currently at a critical technical juncture. A thick resistance zone has formed between $80,000 and $90,000, and breaking through this range is key. Experts believe that Bitcoin must surpass $100,000 to enter a full-fledged bull market.

As Bitcoin prices surge from $60,000 to $80,000, high-leverage investments are on the rise. Many engage in high-leverage trading out of a desire to quickly recover losses, but such investments have a very low success rate and can lead to significant losses. As seen in the case of famous investor 'James Win,' who succeeded with high-leverage investment only to eventually lose everything, individual investors are urged to exercise extreme caution.

News of increasing high-leverage long positions in Bitcoin recently suggests a higher risk of a short-term sharp decline in Bitcoin prices and large-scale liquidations. Such high-leverage positions can become targets for position-disclosure platforms like HyperLiquid, and there's also the possibility of 'whale' investors employing intentional price manipulation strategies to trigger mass liquidations. Therefore, high-leverage investors need to respond even more sensitively to market volatility.

The Democratic Party hosted its first digital asset taxation debate in the 22nd National Assembly. Hosted by Representative Moon Jin-seo, its importance was highlighted as it falls under the purview of the Finance and Economy Committee. During the debate, opinions were raised that taxation policies should consider the competitiveness of the rapidly growing crypto industry, rather than solely focusing on securing tax revenue.

Legal questions are being raised about the current taxation system that classifies digital assets as 'other income.' In particular, if classified as 'other income,' capital gains rollover taxation would not apply, raising concerns about tax evasion through methods such as transferring digital assets to a spouse to artificially inflate the acquisition cost. This also conflicts with international accounting standards and the trend towards institutionalizing digital asset taxation, leading to calls for a re-examination of the current taxation system. Experts argue that a more rational and clear taxation plan, considering the characteristics of the digital asset market, is urgently needed.