US 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks 5%... AI Stocks Show Divergence

This is interpreted as a signal that the Treasury yield is hovering around 5%, increasing the burden of high interest rates in the market. Currently, Treasury yields and the Nasdaq index show a synchronized movement, and this volatility is expected to persist until the November FOMC meeting. The market clearly showed a preference against small and medium-sized stocks as the high-interest rate burden grew.

Stock prices of semiconductor hardware companies such as Micron, SK Hynix ADR, and Broadcom plummeted as if carpet-bombed. In contrast, software companies like Microsoft, Palantir, and CrowdStrike led the rally.

This is a result of concerns about the AI slowdown being reflected in the hardware sector, as 'frontier labs' in AI technology development show relatively quiet movements. The future technological developments of frontier labs are expected to be a major variable determining the direction of the hardware sector. Currently, software companies are gaining momentum and leading the market amid this uncertainty.

From this perspective, the AI slowdown argument may not necessarily be a negative narrative for the hardware sector, according to analysis.

He argued that a strong and intelligent president is the only control, and the United States must not stop AI development. Former President Trump maintained that if AI development were stopped, China would benefit.

This conflict intensified with the revelation of prior consultations between Senator Mark Warner, Amodei, and Sam Altman. It is reported that a private meeting between Trump and Altman also failed to reach an agreement. Trump even called Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang directly to deny the AI threat theory.

The Chinese government strongly condemned the AI slowdown argument. Even hedge fund manager Michael Burry, known as the real-life figure from the movie 'The Big Short,' criticized the AI slowdown. He claimed it was an act of self-interest, and that hype was counterproductive, potentially intended to conceal slowing growth.

Such criticisms have fueled skepticism that AI slowdowns might be used as a means to serve the interests of specific companies or nations rather than genuinely ensuring safety.

OpenAI faces profitability issues and is under pressure to raise funds, stating that an IPO this year would be difficult. Anthropic also feels the burden of Astra's ultra-gap strategy and is in a situation where it's difficult to assert clear leadership in the AI market compared to hyperscalers.

Against this backdrop, the two companies appear to have found common ground in stopping excessive competition and focusing on internal stability. Both companies are seeking a strategy to solidify market leadership through a slowdown.

This suggests that Anthropic has secured high price competitiveness with a total gross margin of over 80%. Anthropic appears to be pursuing a strategy to further strengthen its market leadership based on this competitive advantage.

While some observers suggest that Anthropic is falling behind OpenAI, its decision to maintain IPO plans demonstrates Anthropic's confidence and solid business foundation.

Sam Altman aims for a robot demonstration in 2027 and appears to be pursuing a device-centric AI strategy through the acquisition of a smartphone camera startup. It is believed that if AI development funds shift towards physical AI, related technological advancements will accelerate.

This reflects the expectation that AI will evolve beyond software capabilities to interact with the physical world. The advent of physical AI is projected to be a critical turning point, elevating AI technology to the next level.

The recent market, with its frequent negative events and fluctuations, is increasing investor fatigue. However, experts emphasize that investors should focus on future value three years out rather than being swayed by short-term market swings. The market continuously advises that it is important to continue investing from a long-term perspective rather than being impatient about current negative account balances.

This high-interest rate trend directly impacts the real economy, particularly creating a significant burden on the lending market, with mortgage rates reaching 7%.

In the market, concerns are growing about further rate hikes, increased corporate financing costs, and potential consumption contraction. This could act as a downward pressure on overall economic growth.

Now, market attention is focused on how many more times interest rates will be raised. Investors are closely watching the remarks of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after the rate hike. Powell's comments are expected to play a crucial role in clarifying the future direction of monetary policy and resolving market uncertainties.

Since the direction of the stock market can vary greatly depending on the number of rate hikes, market participants are approaching the Fed's next moves very cautiously.

He added that whether he participates in these negotiations would be his decision. However, Iran immediately denied and dismissed Trump's claims.

This situation, coupled with concerns over control of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea, acts as a factor limiting oil price declines. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East is expected to continue impacting international oil prices.

This shift was detected according to Polymarket betting odds indicators. This result shows that September is a major test period for former President Trump's approval rating. Changes in the Senate election landscape are expected to have a significant impact on the future US political landscape and policy direction.

The continuous importance of AI infrastructure investment is being emphasized. In particular, the explosive growth of data centers is an area where the US is overwhelmingly ahead, likened to a 'golden goose.' Despite arguments for an AI slowdown or criticism from Democrats, data center construction is essential for AI development.

This infrastructure expansion leads to record-breaking semiconductor sales, supporting the continuous growth of the AI industry.

The IRENE CEO's remarks reflect the actual situation of the AI market and suggest that the current supply shortage is not a short-term problem. This reiterates the urgent need for supply chain expansion for the sustainable growth of the AI industry.

Natural gas prices surged 5%, reaching 2022 highs. This is interpreted as a strong warning about winter energy vulnerability and reveals that LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) shortages persist. This problem is exacerbated by the surging demand for gas to power AI data centers.

As a result, there is a growing consensus that controlling inflation is extremely difficult. As long as the energy demand from data centers continues to increase, upward pressure on energy prices will persist, potentially leading to overall price increases. Policymakers need to acknowledge this reality and explore new approaches to inflation management.