What's behind Samsung Electronics' surge? Why did institutions buy the '2x ETF' for seven straight days?

No special positive catalyst appeared on the surface, but the stock had fallen significantly and its valuation had become low. According to export data for August 1–10, exports rose 45.3% year on year to a record high, and semiconductor exports rose 155.4%, leading overall export growth.

DRAM price per unit weight also reached a historical high again, strengthening expectations for a recovery in the semiconductor cycle. In addition, expectations for Samsung Electronics' shareholder return policy, which is expected to be announced in late August, appear to have had a positive effect on the share price.

SK Hynix, by contrast, moved its shareholder return plan forward from the originally planned year-end to the third quarter, yet it appears to be progressing somewhat more slowly than Samsung.

This difference in tone is shaping different market expectations for each company's willingness to return capital to shareholders.

This has sparked cautious market hopes that it could lead to a shareholder return policy. Investors are watching closely to see whether this change in cash management will lead to shareholder-friendly measures.

Combined with this uncomfortable situation, SK Hynix has been performing relatively weakly compared with Samsung Electronics.

This is closely tied to investors' concern about the growing number of listed subsidiaries within the group.

Experts have pointed out many problems with SK Hynix's investor relations (IR) communication. Samsung Electronics came across as orderly and assertive in its IR tone and in presenting specific information with confidence, while SK Hynix glossed over issues too vaguely and left much to be desired.

In particular, SK Hynix was described as failing to show an active stance on shareholder returns. This difference in communication style could also affect investor sentiment.

Last month, TrendForce forecast that NAND prices would fall, but a review of recent export data and other materials shows NAND prices actually rose from the previous month. This suggests either that the outlook from a month ago was wrong, or that the recovery in the memory market could take longer than expected.

The reversal of NAND prices upward can be read as a positive sign for the broader recovery of the memory market.

The memory market remains in a shortage (supply shortfall). There are even reports that a considerable number of Apple products have piled up at TSMC without completing back-end packaging due to DRAM supply disruptions. Some of these reports are exaggerated, but given that memory shortages are delaying back-end processes, it is clear that supply is not running smoothly.

If a company of Apple's size is facing this situation, memory supply conditions for other IT companies are likely even more severe. This could be an important issue that affects overall IT product production.

This shows that aggressive bets by specific investor groups became the driving force pushing the stock up.

Net spot buying by foreign investors and non-arbitrage program buying also acted as factors driving up the share prices of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

KOSDAQ showed strength in August but has since entered a correction phase. During this period, individual investors sold large caps such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix and moved money into KOSDAQ materials, parts and equipment (sobu-jang) stocks. Institutional and foreign investors, by contrast, bought large semiconductor stocks intensively.

This flow of money by investor group moved back and forth like a seesaw toward the exchange (KOSPI), leading KOSDAQ to face short-term resistance and decline.

The KOSDAQ index, after a V-shaped rebound, has reached a short-term resistance level and sits at a price range where a technical correction could emerge. At this point, money is flowing toward Samsung Electronics, and expectations are growing for a large shareholder return program of at least 100 trillion won (including share buybacks and dividend funding), as analyzed by Bank of America and others.

If a more aggressive shareholder return policy than the market expects is announced, there could be concentrated inflows into Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which have recently paused. This suggests money from KOSDAQ could flow even more strongly into large semiconductor stocks.

Leveraged turnover dropped from the 150% range to the 10% range, and inverse turnover fell from 2,400% to 100%. This means demand and supply for single-stock leveraged ETFs have weakened.

As a result, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares have stalled. As the overshooting effect previously caused by leveraged ETFs disappears, the upward momentum of both stocks is also weakening.

Recently, the KOSDAQ index dipped below its 200-month moving average, then rallied strongly back into positive territory, entering a range where a short-term rebound is quite possible. According to an analysis by NH Securities, of six cases since 2016 in which KOSDAQ broke below its 200-month line and then formed a bottom and rose, the average gain after the bottom was a high 72%.

Based on this historical pattern, forecasts suggest that if KOSDAQ rises about 70% from its current 700-point range, it is likely to retest 1,000 points. This points to the market's potential upside.

In connection with the KOSDAQ tier system (seungganje), scheduled to be introduced between September and October this year, preemptive buying appears to be occurring in 70 to 100 mature KOSDAQ stocks (large caps by market capitalization). The sharp rebounds in some stocks such as Alteogen are read as the market reacting sensitively to this catalyst and supply concentrating.

This suggests that expectations for the introduction of the KOSDAQ tier system, along with investors' early bets, are showing up as preemptive buying.

Comparing relative returns for August and July, the only sector that declined over this period was semiconductors. This means money concentrated in semiconductors is dispersing into other sectors.

This easing of supply and demand has spread to the wider market, with most sectors other than semiconductors posting gains. This can be read as a healthy rotation across the market.

In addition, a range of KOSDAQ policy schedules are lined up from July, including the formation of policy funds, public hearings on selecting second-round funds, and the final decision on the tier system.

In particular, the tier system outline is expected to become clearer as September approaches. Analysts therefore expect market positioning around these policy expectations to play out to some extent from around August.

In particular, as seen in net purchases of KOSDAQ ETFs by foreign investors, they absorbed a considerable volume of shares.

In 2026, when individual investors dumped shares, foreign investors bought heavily at the lows, so it can be said that conditions have formed favorably for foreign investors to play in the KOSDAQ market now. This shows that meaningful supply-and-demand changes have already appeared.

This is because KOSPI companies act as forward industries, and KOSDAQ companies benefit from the resulting spillover effect.

Therefore, when overall KOSPI earnings improve, revenue and operating profit growth at KOSDAQ companies has also been observed to follow. This shows that KOSDAQ's growth is closely linked to the healthy trend of the KOSPI market.

It noted that ROE has risen to about 25%, yet PBR is only around 1.5 times, below 1, arguing that this means the market is far too undervalued.

Goldman Sachs argues that, given that historically a 10% ROE corresponded to roughly the PBR level, a 25% ROE today implies a PBR of at least 2.5 times. Based on this analysis, it forecast that KOSPI could mathematically rise to 12,000 points.

It therefore has conditions in place for a meaningful rebound.

The warning is that a strategy of selling all KOSPI holdings and moving into KOSDAQ just because KOSDAQ looks good in the short term is unreasonable. An approach that considers both markets' characteristics and current valuations comprehensively is needed.

In other words, rather than leaning to one side, it is a strategy of investing in both to diversify risk and secure profit opportunities.

In particular, focusing investment on sectors with improving growth prospects in forward industries appears useful. The advice is that responding to market uncertainty while leveraging growth drivers on both sides through this barbell approach is desirable.