Kim Min-seok at 99% Win Probability on Party Member Votes; Shincheonji Factor Watched

This gap points to Kim's overall strength and suggests he is solidifying his support base in key regions.

Jeju alone saw 1,590 votes slip away, marking an overall decline in his vote share. This shows Jung struggling even in regions he considered his strongholds.

This indicates Kim is absorbing broader support within the pro-opposition camp.

This shows that even in the council contest, votes are evenly split in certain regions.

This shows how the emergence or rise of one candidate can directly affect the vote shares of others.

Both gained, but Kim still holds a higher share and the lead over Jung.

Im Mi's vote share jumped six points, from 13.3% yesterday to 19.3% today. This split the votes of other candidates in the Shinmyeong camp.

Kim won a majority of 50.1% in Gangwon, while Jung received 44.4%. In Seoul, Kim took 50.3% to Jung's 44.4%. In Jeju, Kim had 49.3% to Jung's 46.1%, and in Incheon Kim had 49.6% to Jung's 45.4%. In the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (BUG) region the race was close, 47.5% for Kim and 46.9% for Jung, and in the Chungcheong region it was also tight, 46.9% to 46.5%.

Jung won slightly more than the pro-Jung Supreme Council members' share, but overall the pro-Jung camp still trails the pro-Kim camp by about 10 points, indicating that Kim's camp is more cohesive.

Despite a good showing today, roughly 2% of pro-Jung council members' support appears to have gone to Song Young-gil or Kim Min-seok instead. Although the pro-Jung camp was expected to be more cohesive, the cumulative results show Kim's camp holding together more strongly.

That is a sharp rise from the 70-80% range seen just yesterday. Even when the 30% national opinion poll is factored in, his chance is 92%, a drop of 6 points that still leaves him above 90%.

Honam accounts for roughly 33% of the total and voting there is set for August 15, Liberation Day. With about a quarter of the votes counted so far, NewSearch projects a 99% likelihood of a Kim Min-seok win.

Jung Chung-rae has talked up a 'wind' of momentum, but the analysis shows the wind blowing in the opposite direction from what he expected. Comparing the votes he won in the Chungcheong region last year with this year, his vote share has fallen across the board.

Jung Chung-rae's vote share is generally declining this year in regions where he won strongly last year. Where his share was low, such as Chungcheong, BUG, and Daegu-Gyeongbuk, he is posting relatively higher numbers, while in Incheon, Gangwon, and Jeju, where he was strong, he is now trailing. This shows his predictions failing in the strongholds he was confident about and his past support base wavering. The breakdown of his supposed stronghold is especially striking.

Combined, the two candidates approach about 60%, showing a wide gap with the rest of the field.

Although Jung talks about a 'wind,' the analysis suggests the cohesion of organizations not disclosed publicly is shaping their expectations. Through this organizational strength, they appear to believe they can win overwhelming support in the Seoul-Gyeonggi region.

Analysts say Jung Chung-rae's description of Kim Min-seok's warning about Shincheonji interference in the primary as 'political engineering,' and his mention of disciplinary action, has fueled resentment toward Kim among Shincheonji followers. Even without direct instructions from the church, followers are developing a mindset that Kim should be punished and Jung supported. In fact, one Shincheonji follower met in Gwangju said outright, "I'll vote for Jung because I can't stand Kim."

Analysts warn that if turnout among ordinary party members is low, it will be hard to rule out the possibility that Shincheonji votes distort the broader public will.

The preferential-vote threshold has dropped sharply to 18%. This means Kim Min-seok can win even if only 18% of Song Young-gil's votes go to him as second choice. In other words, if just one in five of Song's votes goes to Kim, Kim wins, leaving him relatively comfortable heading into the election.

He now faces the Honam election as the second-place candidate and underdog. After losing Jeju and Incheon yesterday, he claimed confidently that he would win Gangwon-TK the next day, but the results show no real gain, likely another blow to his campaign.