China's Cobalt Monopoly Faces Geopolitical Risks

By stabilizing battery chemistry, cobalt prevents lithium-based cells from degrading rapidly, a function that experts note is essential to the longevity of modern portable devices.

Without cobalt, lithium-based batteries degrade significantly faster, which highlights the material's critical role in battery longevity and performance. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) accounts for over half of global cobalt production, establishing its pivotal position in the supply chain.

China operates the Congolese cobalt industry through a system characterized by local exploitation, where Chinese entities control the mining camps and processing facilities.

Local workers often dig ore by hand under harsh conditions, with raw materials purchased at minimal costs before being shipped to China for final processing. Peter Zeihan describes this arrangement as a form of modern-day slavery, asserting that it surpasses even the historical exploitation seen during Belgian imperial rule.

Internal pressures like a shrinking workforce combined with potential trade hostilities threaten China's control over the metal, as the logistical impossibility of Western intervention leaves the DRC's output uniquely vulnerable.

Geography presents a major hurdle for any potential Western intervention or replacement of China's role, as the Democratic Republic of Congo lacks functional ports and essential infrastructure, making it nearly impossible to secure supply routes.

Operating effectively in the Congolese jungle would also require engaging with and managing local warlords, a role that Western governments are highly unlikely to adopt or manage effectively in a post-Chinese collapse scenario.

Anticipated supply constraints for cobalt will likely force a significant change in the trajectory of technological development, prompting industries to seek alternatives.

Manufacturers must redesign products for greater recyclability or commit to using significantly less cobalt in their compositions. Similar supply chain risks exist for tantalum, also found in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while tungsten, largely sourced from Myanmar, may prove more stable due to greater market diversification.