The Bitcoin Bottom Debate and Tax Delay

Bitcoin recently broke out of the $63,000–$64,000 range where it had been stuck, surging past $70,000 and turning upward.

Based on this move, the CEO of iTrust Capital declared the end of the 'crypto winter,' and expects the bear market to be officially over if the weekly close is at or above $85,300.

Similar signals were also seen at the start of the bull markets in 2019 and 2023, and Bitcoin is already up more than 10% in September alone, with expectations that it could extend its gains to a third straight month of rising prices.

If the bottom is taken to be $60,000, a 3x rise would bring Bitcoin to $180,000 and a 5x rise to $300,000, according to one analysis.

However, Bitcoin's peak multiples have tended to shrink with each cycle, and as its market capitalization has grown substantially, an explosive rally like past ones may be harder to achieve.

Michael McGlone, senior commodity analyst at Bloomberg, assessed as low the likelihood that Bitcoin formed its bottom near $60,000 this year.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking above 5% is adding pressure on the market, and further downside pressure from the four-year halving cycle also remains.

According to crypto analyst Dark Post, despite Bitcoin's rise, spot demand remained weak at a negative figure (-10,000 BTC).

The Coinbase premium also stayed in the red, while in recent days ETFs saw trillions of won in inflows over two consecutive days, serving as a key driver of the Bitcoin market.

As Bitcoin's price rises, the stocks of data companies that hold it are climbing, and those firms are in turn buying more Bitcoin, creating a virtuous cycle.

If this continued buying by institutional investors persists, the debate over Bitcoin's bottom could become meaningless, though some voices warn of risks, making risk management essential.

Howard Marks presented an in-depth analysis of U.S. debt issues and the dollar's value in his memo 'Economic Laws, Part 3.'

The U.S. Treasury's Treasury buyback policy is not a fundamental solution but only a temporary stopgap.

Marks identified the decline in currency value, rather than a national default, as the biggest risk to the economy today, and proposed gold and Bitcoin as hedges against it.

U.S. stocks' competitiveness remains intact, but investors need to diversify their portfolios into real assets to prepare for volatility in the dollar's value.

The U.S. Treasury Secretary said the Treasury buyback program would be supplemented, with the funding to be raised through the issuance of short-term Treasury bills.

The main buyers of these short-term bills are the stablecoin industry, and the expansion of the stablecoin market will play a decisive role in absorbing short-term Treasuries.

If the Treasury buyback and the debasement trade spread, Bitcoin is expected to benefit.

Simply copying an expert trader's trade history makes it hard to guarantee profits; in the end, personal operating principles such as scaling in and out in stages and strict position sizing determine success or failure.

He stuck to principles such as position adjustment, aggressiveness in switching between long and short, and no revenge trading, and traded by comprehensively weighing various indicators and waiting for opportunities.

Trying to replicate trading skill from an expert's trade records alone is impossible, and the reality that simply following whale positions such as those on Hyperliquid rarely yields profits has become clear.

The host warned against leverage and revenge trading, cautioning about the dangers of an investment approach that blindly trusts other people's portfolios.

He stressed that successful investing must prioritize one's own judgment and analysis, and that blind chase-style investing can lead to large losses.

Some of the portfolios Messari publishes each year have had a fairly high hit rate. In particular, its 2026 picks, Hype and Zcash, saw price gains, and its predictions that RWA would become a core growth axis and that prediction markets would erode betting markets came true.

Its forecasts that new L1 projects would underperform and that Ethereum and Solana would survive also proved accurate, but since only the successful cases tend to stand out, one should be wary of blindly following Messari's predictions.

Shared cases showed that many projects a16z invested in fell short of expectations, and it was urged not to blindly trust a venture capital firm's investment record.

Emphasis was placed on investors focusing on a project's product competitiveness, clear revenue model, and team capability rather than the reputation of the VC.

Democratic Party lawmaker Park Min-gyu stated clearly his opposition to implementing crypto taxation next year, arguing that the enactment of a digital asset basic law and a tax delay must come first.

People Power Party lawmaker Kim Jae-seop also proposed a bill to delay crypto asset taxation by three years until 2030 and to ease taxpayer filing.

This movement, combined with the introduction of an obligation for operators to provide transaction data to ensure accurate taxpayer filing, is expected to help reverse the decline in net domestic coin inflows and the rise in overseas outflows seen after the tax implementation was announced.